I think he could sign 6 x 6 after two years of 70 pointsYou missed my point. I am not asking if he would be worth 6 x 6 after two 77 point seasons. I am asking you HOW MUCH do you think he signs for as a free agent if he scores 77 points next season? There is no way the Hawks could keep him for 6 x 6 at that point.
The entire point of the Hawks paying 6 x 6 for him now is that they believe he WILL score the way he did last year and they want to get a bargain contract by paying earlier. Don't you think he would get an offer of $7.5mil + from someone if he hit the open market after consecutive 77 point seasons?
Obviously you do not pay him 6 x 6 after one season if you don't believe he is 100% capable of playing at that high level going forward. Signing him for that much after one season is a high risk high reward move. People who believe he will continue to be a 70+ point player would give him 6 x 6 and focus on the reward, while people who believe he won't would not give him 6 x 6 because they focus on the risk. Neither approach is inherently wrong, but ultimately one will be proved right by the test of time.
- - - Updated - - -
Precisely. Especially because in the Hawks' situation they can't afford to pay more later. It is either seal him up now for 6 x 6 or take a serious gamble that he walks later for more money. Only way I take that chance if I am Bowman is if I don't think he is legit.