Is Connor McDavid truly a generational talent?

[Feadur]

I didn't quote your post because well, it's long. However this is what I mean by the "downward progression" of the NHL. The "UBER-ELECTRIC PP" still exist in the NHL, they just don't get the same opportunity to show it. Fact is, Crosby's PP point percentage and Pittsburgh's PP percentage is basically on par with his 120 point season.

In 2006-07, Crosby's powerplay point percentage was 64%, and Pittsburgh's PP produced at 20.3%
In 2014-15, Crosby's powerplay point percentage is 58%, and Pittsburgh's PP is producing at 21.6%

That 6% is pretty minimal. It's basically 2 more PPP. Their PP is producing a full percentage point higher.

What has changed DRASTICALLY:

In 2006-07, The Penguins had 463 PP opportunities. That number was tops in the league, however league average was 398 PP/team.
In 2014-15, through 41 GP the Penguins have had 134 PP opportunities. Which paces them for 268 over a full season. 268 PP/team also happens to be the "on-pace" average for the league this season. That is down 130 (!!!) opportunities over 8 years.

Only one team is producing over 25% on the PP this season. Only 2 teams produced a PP over 21% last season. I would say it is acceptable to assume that a PP producing at 22% can be termed as "elite". Even if current trend holds, on average an ELITE PP team will score 59 PP goals in a season. So for McDavid to get 40 PPP in a season he will need to be on a team with an elite PP and even so, will need to be in on approximately 68% of his teams PP goals to be a 100+ point scorer. Impossible, certainly not, but that is a tall task. If McDavid is on a team with an average PP (say, ~18%), McDavid would need to a point on 84% of his teams PP goals to hit 40 PPP.

To be clear, none of this is a knock on McDavid. The NHL simply has no interest on letting talent fully decide NHL games. The UBER-ELECTRIC PP hasn't gone anywhere. The NHL has just decided they'd rather a shootout decide a game than a highly skilled PP.

Which is why I say. Unless the NHL implement's rule changes such as they did after the 2004-05 lockout, We simply won't see many if any 100 point scorers. I think McDavid will be close to the top of the league, I just don't think that top has 100 in it's future if current trends continue.

I think this needs a bit more eye-test to really confirm. The stats don't tell the whole story here. Nicklas Backstrom had 40 PPP last year, the Caps were 23% on the powerplay. They scored 68 PPGs in 291 opportunities. Backstrom's 44 PPPs means he was in on 64.7% of them.

So yeah, it's doable, but McDavid wouldn't JUST have to be on an elite team, he'd also have to occupy a Backstrom-like role: the entire powerplay would have to run through him. I don't see anywhere where he'd get that just yet. Edmonton would probably be the closest, but for that to work, they'd have to really figure out wtf is up with that team. They have all the weapons to be an elite team, at least on the powerplay, yet they aren't.

[rataylor22]

I think this needs a bit more eye-test to really confirm. The stats don't tell the whole story here. Nicklas Backstrom had 40 PPP last year, the Caps were 23% on the powerplay. They scored 68 PPGs in 291 opportunities. Backstrom's 44 PPPs means he was in on 64.7% of them.

So yeah, it's doable, but McDavid wouldn't JUST have to be on an elite team, he'd also have to occupy a Backstrom-like role: the entire powerplay would have to run through him. I don't see anywhere where he'd get that just yet. Edmonton would probably be the closest, but for that to work, they'd have to really figure out wtf is up with that team. They have all the weapons to be an elite team, at least on the powerplay, yet they aren't.

That was half of what my post said.....

And what does the "eye test" have to do with that? That is strictly based on stats.

[rtstr]

Generational? Sure. Best in the world? No. It won't be long before another kid comes up with this kind of hype. The talent in youth hockey these days is something to be excited about. Just look at how the young players are dominating the NHL now.

I agree with those saying he'll be a regular 80-100 point guy. Which is awesome. But I can't help but scoff at the people who think he's on the same level as Crosby.

Remember, the media hype machine is a completely different animal than it was 5-10 years ago. Obviously there's more excitement and chatter about prospects now.

How often were you on twitter in 2005?

[Pengwin7]

But I can't help but scoff at the people who think he's on the same level as Crosby.

The director of the ISS thinks McDavid & Crosby are comparable.
http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30-released-october-2/
I'm sure there are others.

I'd disagree that there are many other kids on the way of McDavid's caliber.
There are a lot of kids rising with super skills these days, sure.
But the elite hockey players will always be about an elite hockey sense that they possess in comparison to their peers... a hockey sense that is evident at a very early age.
Hockey scouts haven't ever, to my knowledge, hyped a bust as "a next one".

If scouts are calling him "a next one"... he'll be Crosby-ish. Elite.

Out of curiousity - say your bank account is on the line.
You have to pick a side on the following case:
In his career, Connor McDavid will have THREE OR MORE 100+ pt seasons
a) TRUE
b) FALSE

(I'm betting TRUE. 100+pt seasons of current NHL superduperstars: Crosby(5), Ovechkin(4), Malkin(3)... )

[rataylor22]

I remember seeing hype on McDavid BEFORE there was hype on Mackinnon. That doesn't happen often.

[Feadur]

That was half of what my post said.....

And what does the "eye test" have to do with that? That is strictly based on stats.

Yeah, I was agreeing, just adding my own insight. I disagree that it's strictly based on stats. That wouldn't tell you of Backstrom's role on the PP, nor the kind of PP he's a part of.

[4horsemen]

I understand your point of view and am engaging in a discussion as opposed to attempting to inflame. So explain any one scenario where McDavid is a better option at first overall than McDavid?

The one singular scenario I could MAYBE see is in a cap league that uses actual salary as opposed to AAV and doesn't count +/- and is heavily weighted away from points. You really think McDavid is going to come in and light it up? Because more than likely, McDavid WILL NOT hit any type of PPG status until his second contract. In fact Crosby isn't the best own in most leagues right now, that honor is given to Tyler Seguin. However, it would still be silly to take Seguin over Crosby, simply because he is the best player in the game. Nobody has the point upside of Crosby, and even at a high cap number, he still gives you the best value at that draft position. Taking McDavid first overall in a new startup dynasty league basically ensures you are 3+ years from competing for a championship, regardless of format, and if your goal is always to be 3+ years away from winning than you are doing something wrong.

I've been playing in multiple 30 team capped leagues for some time now and my thinking on the subject has evolved enormously in the past 10 years (I've pretty much done a 180 from where I began). I used to believe that championships were won and lost by holding star players while filling the rest of my roster with whoever I could fit in under the cap but that simply isn't the best way to build a winning team and the results of my leagues have borne this out time and time again. The more I ran the numbers the clearer it became that separation between the elite players and the 2nd tier of stars did not outweigh the difference in salary and the guys at the top of my leagues were constantly unloading star players for 'the next one' or great cap bargains in a never ending effort to keep the production up while minimizing the cap hit of any one player.

For an extremely simple example lets say I have 10 mil to spend and I'm making two picks. I'll make the assumption that all or most drafts are 'snake' style (they should be) and that this is for a large league (approx 30 teams with approx 20 active players per team). Through my observations of how Dynasty leagues are drafted, the elite, young talents will be snapped up very quickly and this will include the very young guys such as Nate Mac, Drouin, Tarasenko, etc even if some of their rates of production don't match up well with other more established stars (dynasty leagues are not sprints so the future absolutely does matter). Realistically, Crosby is going at or near the top of any draft going so if you take him at 1 it's all about who might be available at 60 with a 1.3 mil salary (For any league using AAV you will not land a top draft pick for 1.3 mil). My conclusion is that Crosby + a 1.3 mil player will not outproduce a combo of lets say Seguin + Simmonds (very realistic that you could land these two with where you'd have to select Seguin). Frankly, I don't care what the stat categories are for the league in question as the league specific cats can be met with any number of players when you have cap flexibility (eg. if your league doesn't value PIM's and hits maybe Simmonds isn't your guy and you could consider Max Pac)

Now that's just one part of the case against taking on elite salary in the form of Crosby, the second part of my reasoning would be based on age and injury history. Age will deteriorate the skills of all players and for an NHL player Sid is at or very near the peak of his predicted output so within the next few years we should expect his production to start dropping off (he could buck that trend but the smart money doesn't bet against the law of averages). Then there's the issue of the knocks he's taken to the head and there's no real need to elaborate on the risk that is added to owning him given that history. Will it come back to haunt him? Who knows but once again it's a tick in the risk column. The thing he has going for him is that in the next 3-4 years his contract is going to look like a great bargain (it already looks pretty good in NHL terms) and here's the truly ironic part of this conversation, I'd argue that people selecting Sid 1st overall aren't going for the win now, they're banking on him being a 100 point player 3-4 years from now when guys like Seguin, Stamkos and Tavares have signed their 10+ deals and his becomes even more of bargain contract......that wasn't the angle I'm sure anyone was expecting

Every single move in a capped league must pass the economics test before anything else is considered and there simply isn't enough separation between the elite players in the league to justify the salary that you're taking on. This logic applies to almost every star player who has signed a UFA contract in the last number of years; Ovi, Toews, Kane, Getzlaf, Perry, Giroux, Malkin, etc. The GM's who will separate from the pack will be the ones with good/great players on bargain contracts (Seguin, Benn, Tavares, Max Pac, Simmonds, E Kane, Wheeler, Voracek, Johnson, etc) coupled with emerging stars on ELC's (eg. Forsberg, Nate Mac, Drouin, Tarasenko, Kucherov, etc). The best thing a fantasy GM can ask for is a guy as close to a guaranteed 'next one' on an ELC that you can get and McDavid is the man in that regards. I firmly believe that he will be a PPG player by his 2nd year in the league with a ceiling to surpass any player in the league by his 4th year....that is exceedingly rare and gives his owner incredible financial flexibility to put together a winning roster immediately with the added bonus that he'll land you a fortune when/if you decide to unload him before he lands his big payday.

I'm not taking McDavid for the win in the distant future, I'm taking McDavid because he sets me up best to win now and for years to come. In terms of value Crosby isn't even close to the best player in the league right now, Tarasenko and Kucherov have him destroyed on that front but where it appears we really differ is in how you see McDavid's progression, you're MUCH lower on him than I am. I've taken every possible opportunity to watch him since he came into the CHL and he's the most amazing talent I've seen since Crosby (doesn't hurt that almost every major scouting service is saying the exact same thing so I do not feel that I'm out on any sort of limb here).