PIM Predictions for Monday/Tuesday

[Pengwin7]

I had a really solid success rate predicting fights last year.
This entire season has been very different and I'm really struggling to hand-pick PIMs... and of course a "miss" on predicting can really hurt in ROTO leagues because you sacrifice offensive stats to guess on it.

Interestingly, I read a comment recently from Windsor's Matt Martin that confirmed what I was feeling this year.
"You don't see too many of the staged fights, right off the draw," Martin said. "It's definitely harder to find a fight, if you want to go or if someone else wants to. I certainly understand what the coaches want. If we're ahead, there's no reason to fight."
http://www.newsday.com/sports/column...tion-1.9622116


This said, I've decided to give it another go this week in a couple leagues to chase some PIM.

Monday Night:
Brian Boyle (TB) vs. Tanner Glass (NYR) @ NEW YORK
Boyle is an enormous man... and he actually rarely fights... only about 1-4 times per year. He's got one go this year with Marco Scandella - a boring draw.
I rostered him because it is a PIM/HIT/FOW league and at least he'll give me the other two a bit.
But Boyle is a former-Ranger, who was not offered enough in value to re-sign.
Taking his place is former-Penguin Tanner Glass.
Glass needs to reinforce that he is the new tough-guy in New York.
Boyle needs to remind the Rangers what they let go.
As Boyle & Glass were never on the Rangers together, they have no shared buddy-love and are good candidates to go.
I'm not completely sold on this as a fight because:
i) Boyle is much, much bigger... but
ii) Glass is actually a "fighter" where as Boyle really is not, but might be big enough to handle Glass' experience.

Tuesday Night:
Tim Jackman (ANA) vs. Brandon Bollig / Deryk Engelland (CGY) @ CALGARY
Similar to Boyle, Jackman is making another trip back to Calgary.
He is Anaheim's resident tough-guy and likely loves to remind Calgary organization and fans what they traded away last year.
March 26th last year, he sparred with Kevin Westgarth, who is no longer there. That fight was a draw.
It's his job to be the Anaheim fighter.
For Calgary, there has only been one fight this year for Brandon Bollig... a few days ago against Ottawa's Mark Borowiecki.
Bollig won that fight handily, so his confidence should be high.

For Jackman, he hasn't fought since October 26th.
That's a long time for a fighter... 20+ days.
I call this the "due theory".

So... we'll see how I do.
My odds:
Boyle fight: 25%
Jackman fight: 60%

[ericdaoust]

Unfortunately this year the vast majority of my PIM have come from bulk minor penalties. Only Dorsett has really provided anything fight/insanity wise. Singles instead of home runs...

[Pengwin7]

Unfortunately this year the vast majority of my PIM have come from bulk minor penalties. Only Dorsett has really provided anything fight/insanity wise. Singles instead of home runs...

Yeah. I think we talked about this.
I don't disagree.
In retrospect, I would've drafted differently had I known... but, to my knowledge, nobody forecasted this would be the year with such a change.
So - some of us *cough* me *cough* are still trying to chase the odd fight/misconduct down.
They are still happening, I just think they are harder to find.
(like... trying to figure out which guy at your high school might be carrying a smoke you can bum... good/bad example... i don't know! LOL)

[ericdaoust]

Most of us have been blindsided by the shift. I'm actually 12th/24 in PIM this year. So even though I've been getting decent results from minor penalties, they have not been anything spectacular. Losing Clune was huge and guys like Zack Smith are just not mixing it up like usual.

In my one-year league that has unlimited moves I've been much more successful (ranked 2nd/11) but I'm not going by match-ups at all. Sprinkling in guys like Neil and Dillon along with occasional blow-ups from my other players (Ennis, Landeskog, etc) has done the trick. Granted, this is a very casual league.

[Pengwin7]

Just noticed another "RETURN" game on the schedule:

John Scott (SJ) vs. McCormick/Deslauriers (BUF) @ BUFFALO
Scott's a big DOOF that doesn't play every game.
Fortunately, in Yahoo! he's a LW/D, which means you can slot him in a less-valuable D-slot for the night.
SJ & BUF have faced once this season... but that was in San Jose.
This will be the big DOOF's return to Buffalo - and there's a chance he still wants to prove that that rink is still his castle.

Scott has one big night of value thus far this year... a 22 PIM beaut vs. Anaheim on the Oct 26th.
I believe he got a suspension from that one.
http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelo...592/john-scott

Hopefully, SJ takes a big lead on Buffalo and then all hell breaks loose.

John Scott, D-addition for Tuesday.
(and if he doesn't dress... well, it wouldn't count as a GP against)

[Pengwin7]

Oh... and even one more.

Simon Despres (PIT): 6'-4", 215 (who hails from Laval, QC & played in the Q) will play his first ever game @ Bell Centre in Montreal tomorrow.
Look for him to possibly put on a show for the locals and dual with a Hab middleweight... could Despres vs. Subban possibly be a tilt?!

Despres has so far enjoyed scrapping with high-profile players, including JVR & Evander Kane! (this year!)

[deantime419]

When do you expect gudas to get back to dropping the gloves? Speculation was a broken nose in a fight Nov 1.

[deantime419]

Despres vs prust seems a bit more likely.

[Pengwin7]

Despres vs prust seems a bit more likely.

Size-wise, yes.
Skill-wise, no.

Despres is a big boy, but he has no experience fighting a heavyweight like Prust.
They aren't even in the same "class".

If you look at Despres' fight-card, it includes guys like JVR, Umberger, Jason Zucker, and Kyle Brodizak.
http://www.hockeyfights.com/players/...htcard/reg2015
These are all lankier forwards that I would call "lightweights" or "mediumweights" (at best).
These kind of guys fight maybe 1-3 times per year... that's it.

Last tilt, he got in a fight with a true middleweight, Evander Kane, and got whooped.
http://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/125349

Prust is a bonafide heavyweight... and only heavy-weights should even consider fighting other heavyweights.
Check Prust's fightcards and you'll know by the names that he's a big boy fighter.
http://www.hockeyfights.com/players/...htcard/reg2014

Despres also wears a half-visor.
Not sure those guys even qualify to tilt with visor-less boys.

I'd say Despres-Subban would be a good bout.

A big part of fight-PIM predicting is matching up "class" weights.
It's pretty rare that guys fight outside their class.
Part of "the code".

(and this is why I like Tim Jackman vs. Calgary tomorrow. Jackman is really the only "heavyweight" on Anaheim, whereas Calgary has two heavyweights in Bollig/Engelland - so this increases Jackman's "encounter" potential.)

[Pengwin7]

Thought I'd post an interestingly rare consistency on Tim Jackman.
Last year, Jackman almost rarely fought in back-to-back games... but he very consistently fought every 4th game.

Starting from his first game of Season and counting on the non-fight games.
2013-2014
1
FIGHT
1
2
3
*NOVEMBER*
4
FIGHT
FIGHT
1
2
FIGHT
1
2
FIGHT
*DECEMBER*
1
2
FIGHT
1
2
FIGHT
1
*JANUARY*
2
3
4
FIGHT
1
2
FIGHT
*FEBRUARY*
3
4
*MARCH*
FIGHT
1
2
3
FIGHT
*APRIL*
1

http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/gamelo...14/tim-jackman

This year, 2014-2015:
1
2
FIGHT
1
2
3
FIGHT
1
FIGHT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
...it's been 9 games Timmy.... time for Fighty-Fighty!

[skiteam14]

This is some next level analysis. I'm on board.

[Pengwin7]

Brian Boyle (TB) vs. Tanner Glass (NYR) @ NEW YORK
Tim Jackman (ANA) vs. Brandon Bollig / Deryk Engelland (CGY) @ CALGARY

So... we'll see how I do.
My odds:
Boyle fight: 25%
Jackman fight: 60%

As a bump on my predictions.

Brian Boyle did NOT fight on Monday night.
Tim Jackman DID fight on Tuesday night. (I did rake his 7 PIM in one league).
John Scott did not even get to dress on Tuesday... should've... SJ continues its woes against BUF.
Despres didn't have any PIM.

I rostered Matt Hendricks in two ROTO leagues tonight.
Hopefully Hendricks - Dorsett goes down!

[ntrspctv]

you need to do this weekly!

[Pengwin7]

you need to do this weekly!

Thanks. I did last year & the year previous.
But I dropped it to focus on the Bondon Goalie Challenge.

Besides, fights (I believe... statistically) are way down this year.
I'd bet my success rate at predicting them would be about 15%-20% this year (if I keep track), whereas they were closer to 33% (ballparking) in past years.