My draft strategy - Input welcomed

[ynotzz]

This may turn out to be a big post, so be warned We are drafting live on friday, and I usually make a spreadsheet to help me on draft day, but then I got the idea to make a post about it instead. Not even sure anyone is gonna bother to read this, but it will be useful for myself so who cares I'm gonna throw around a few statistical numbers without backing them up, so you're just gonna have to take my word for it.

12 team, redraft, pretty normal scoring with 4 for passing td's, -2 for interceptions, 6 for rushing/receiving td, point every 10 yards etc.

We start
QB
RB1
RB2
WR1
WR2
WR3
TE
R/W/T
K
DST

So, three wide receivers and a flex spot for a RB, WR or TE is the only thing that is a bit different.

I always set up a few "rules" for myself about who to draft. Statistically there is not much point in drafting RBs after the first 30ish are off the board, so I want to be finished picking RBs before round 7, but our flex spot might stretch this another round or two. This year that translates to players like Rice, MJD, Vereen, Sankey and maybe Lamar Miller to be the last who are draftable. In my opinion players like Woodhead, Ridley, Greene, Sproles, Powell, Moreno, Ivory, DeAngelo, McFadden, Ingram etc arent worth a pick, since players from the waiver wire will probably do just as much for your team. Statistically RB4 through RB12 have a pretty equal chance of finishing top 12 for RBs at the end of the season. After that there is a drop, and you see the same type of trend with a bigger group. RB13 through RB25ish tend to have an equal shot at performing. This means that after AP, McCoy, Charles, Forte, Lacy, Lynch, Stacy, Ball, Martin, Murray, Morris, Bell and Foster is gone I might look at other options before grabbing another RB. More about this later.

The absolute top tier of WRs is a pretty safe bet to finish top 12 in their position. This year that means Mega, Thomas, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Bryant and Marshall. I might add Nelson to that group as well. I want one of these seven. After that you have a BIG group of WRs that are all just as likely to put up good numbers. Brown, Jeffery, Cobb, V Jackson, Cruz, A Johnson, Allen, Fitzgerald, D Jackson, Crabtree, Garcon, Harvin, TY Hilton, White and Torrey Smith. I think the first five names there hold a bit more value than the rest, but statistically they dont.

TE and QB we all know the situation. A few elite ones in each position, but I will only derail from picking RBs and WRs if any of these fall.

What I expect to happen:
RBs: I typically expect 6-7 RB's to go in each of the first three rounds and then drop to 4-5 the next three rounds.
WRs: 3-4 in round 1, 5-7 in round 2 and 3-7 in round three. Round four should be a WR rush, with alot being picked in round 5 and 6 as well.
TEs: 1 in each round until 6-7ish. Then a rush.
QBs: 1 in round 1 and 2 in round 2. One per round until a rush around round 6-7.

Combining all of this into scenarios based on where I end up picking (early 1-4, mid 5-8, late 9-12)

Early:
Round 1: I open with RB and get something solid like AP.

Round 2: When the draft gets back to me I expect the top 12-13 RBs to be gone, but you never know and one of Stacy, Martin, Murray, Morris, Bell or Foster might still be there. If this is the case there has only been picked 11 or less RBs out of the 20 players so far. That probably means that 9+ out of Peyton, Brees, Rodgers - Graham, Gronk, Thomas - Mega, Thomas, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Bryant, Marshall have been picked. My guess would be Peyton, Brees, Graham and 6 WRs meaning that I can still pick one of the last top tier WRs or RBs. I will get another pick pretty soon, so I think I should go elite WR over boarderline elite RB. INPUT WANTED!
QB/TE I will pick this round if he falls: none (unless I have already listed them in earlier rounds).

Round 3: If I went RB-RB I am definitely getting my first WR. It should land me something like Brown, Cobb, Cruz, V Jackson. If I already have an elite WR I am more likely to pick up another RB. One of Bernard, Mathews, Ellington, R Bush should still be available.
QB/TE I will pick this round if he falls: Peyton.

Round 4: I expect the 44 players off the board to be 22-25RBs, 18-24WRs, 1-3 TEs, 1-3 QBs. I most likely have picked two RBs and one WR. Top potentially available RBs: Gerhart, Jennings, Rice, Miller, CJ0K, Richardson, J Bell, B Tate, Sankey, Vereen. WRs: DJackson, Garcon, Harvin, TY Hilton, White, Torrey Smith, Patterson, Floyd. I think the dropoff is bigger with those RBs listed than WRs, so I will go RB first here.
QB/TE I will pick this round if he falls: Gronkowski, Thomas, Brees, Rodgers

Round 5: The chance of any of these RBs having a top 12 season is pretty slim. The dropoff after WR30 picked is statistically pretty big, but I think there are more than a few decent WRs in the WR30-45 range this year. You will find players like Wayne, Welker, K Wright, Colston, Cooks, Shorts, Amendola, Nicks, Hopkins, Maclin, T Williams etc in this group. This is where the draft gets really difficult. I could probably get one of the last RBs worth drafting here and still have 2-3 of these WRs fall to me, but it does mean something like Maclin or Cooks being my WR2 instead of a Torrey Smith or Cordarelle Patterson. I think a WR from the group mentioned in round 4 is the way to go.
QB/TE I will pick this round if he falls: none

Round 6/7: I expect most draftable RB and WRs to be gone now, so they will be added to my picklist for players who fall. I might get my QB here depending on how many has gone. If there have only been picked 3-5 QBs I am looking at WR in both round 6 and 7 if I can get two of those mentioned in round 5. But if we are down to our Dobsons, Randles, Hawkins etc I will just get my QB straight away. Most likely it will be a WR and a QB.
Pick if he falls: Any of my top 30 RBs.

My team should now at worst be something like this:
QB: Brady
RB1: AP
RB2: Bernard
WR1: Bryant
WR2: T Smith
WR3: K Wright
TE:
R/W/T: R Jennings

Pretty solid base. I will now focus on getting a decent TE, and maybe even another solid QB. There should still be QBs with good value, while WRs and RBs are more of a lottery.

Round 8/9: If I can still get a top 30 RB I am picking that until they are all gone but the plan is to get a TE and another QB (of course depending on what is available).

Round 10+: Sleeper time! I am no longer picking the best players available in different positions, but switch focus to players with potentially good situations and/or talent. I havent really started on my list of sleepers yet, so will get back to this tomorrow. All suggestions are welcomed, but I tend to stack up on WRs.

I'll make posts on my pick strategies for the first 3-5 rounds if I have a mid or late first round pick later.

[2014olympicgold]

I think points wise you want a WR in your flex position. They get more points than RB typically. Kelvin Benjamin is usually left late in the draft and will most likely emerge as Carolinas #1. Shonn Green is listed as a starter right now, so he’s a prime candidate as a bye week filler/sleeper. Draft him as a filler but expect a nice input weekly.

Also you may wanna look at the bye weeks. Your projected starting lineup has 4 players on bye weeks major weeks. Major as in playoff push weeks. I filled my team with week 4 bye players because 1.) It has one of the most bye teams that week, making my opponent likely to have his big names on byes that week also 2.) Forfeit 1 lose in a blowout because a 120-80 lose still looks the same as a 120-119 lose.

I know people who like late bye weeks (not me, I like them early to judge my team) because for let’s say AP, by week 8 you could trade him for a player who’s had their bye on week 6 and get 17 weeks of production from “one player”. Look to draft Alex Smith as a bye week filler for Brady, Smith is against Buffalo week 10, projected for like 14pts (9^th or 10^th that week) or something which is solid for a backup QB. He beats out Kaep, Wilson, Big Ben, and Dalton. Toby Gerhart faces Dallas who couldn’t stop the run in week 10 also, he could be a good AP filler for you, but he’s going like round 5 now, which is pretty rich for primarily replacing AP on a bye week.

Bye weeks
NE-10
Minny-10
Cincy-4
Dallas-11
Balt-11
Ten-9
Oak-5

[ynotzz]

Hehe that is digging really deep I like it. That lineup was just a possibility if I happen to draft in that position, but so much could happen that I'm not sure I have time to make a solid plan. The week 4 thing is pretty smart though, and I'll definitely pick the week 4 players if I think it's close between two players.

[Rad64]

Totally agree on using the flex for a WR.

This year I would recommend taking a top flight RB in the first...then you might want to go heavy on WR and look for a few bottom end rb's to fill out your roster. There are a lot of 1000 yard wr's out there, but few 1000 yd backs. Grad a back early, but if there isn't any "guaranteed" 1000 yds rushers left by your 2nd pick go heavy on the wideouts, especially wiht the flex spot. The backs left after the 2nd probably dont deserve to be drafted until the 6th...