Lacy vs Forte - what say you?

[Bazz]

Yeah, I'd consider them an above-average D. Big improvement, but they won't be elite.

They will be average at best.

[dejeanneret]

AP was the only back where the offense went through him. That might change with Norv in Minnesota, but not for a couple years Teddy needs to develop. The nfl has become offensive systems where the offense goes through the QB. I think what you're trying to say is Forte Charles and Shaddy are three down backs, all three have that home run threat ability (Shaddy and Charles based on speed while Forte is more with the spacing of the offense as well as blocking ability by WRs).


As far as statistics go, Lacy ypc for a rookie RB was good and better than Fortes rookie year. In year two I'm looking at the game slowing down for Lacy and his contributions to grow. Looking at the differences in receptions, Lacy had 3 receptions the first 4 games. After that 32 in 11, as he develops in the pass game I expect him to hit 50 receptions with 2/3 rec tds. As far as 2014 projections

Forte 1200 yds 8 TDs 70 rec 600 yds 4 TDs
Lacy 1350 yds 14 TDs 45 rec 350 yds 1 TD

With respect, I actually meant that their teams' respective offense is designed to go through Forte, Charles and Shady.

While a bit crude and by no means a complete analysis, when looking at rushing attempts and receiving targets on a combined basis as a percentage of total offensive plays run, each of Forte, Charles and Shady were the ball carrier or intended receiver on over 35% of their teams' offensive snaps last season:

Forte at 37.8%;
McCoy at 35.9%;
Charles at 35.2%

I've not run the analysis for everybody yet, but I've not found anyone else that is even at the 33% mark. For example, Peterson was at 31.3% and Lacy was 30.5% (as to both, I think it's mostly due to a weak number of targets in the passing game (39 for AP; 44 for Lacy), although both also missed a game or two I think so their numbers would adjust upward a tad if healthy --notably, for Lacy, about two-thirds of his receptions came in games in which Rodgers was out with injury, so it's a bit unclear if Rodgers' presence will help him in the passing game)).

Equally crude but intriguing is that Charles, McCoy and Forte accounted for nearly a third of their teams' total offense as measured against total yards from scrimmage (Charles at 36.6%; McCoy at 31.6%; and Forte at 31.6%). By comparison, AP accounted for 26% of the Vikings' yards from scrimmage and Lacy 22.4% of the Packers' total offensive yardage (again, these numbers would adjust upwards slightly if they were healthy for the full slate, but still below 30% for AP and about 25% for Lacy if you assume two additional games at 100 yds total offense per game).

In any event, assuming standard scoring (i.e., non-PPR, 1 pt. every 10 rushing and receiving, 6 pt. TD), I calculate that Forte and Lacy would be 8 points apart using your predicted stats -- the difference being Lacy's predicted 14 rushing TDs. Not saying that he can't do that, but recognize that exactly 2 RBs have accomplished that in the past 4 seasons (Foster twice and McCoy once).

[Bomm Bastic]

Great discussion, guys, and not entirely dissimilar to the one I was having online. Definite valid arguments for either. Ultimately two major issues work in Forte's favor...imo...first is being the proven reliable commodity. What Lacy offers is promise of things to come.

Also...as dejenneret elaborated on below and to what I was alluding to in a prior post, Forte's production comprises more of the total Bears production than Lacy's did. Despite recent Packers camp reports indicating a desire to lean on on Lacy more this season, Rodgers has and always will get his passing yards. That will ultimately be the difference maker here.

Lacy could be a bonafide stud-O-rama, but for now gimme Forte.

[TheWhale]

In fantasy, give me a competent pass catching Rb on a bad-mediocre team everyday. Forte fits the description and is the safest choice. especially in ppr leagues.

[Bazz]

With respect, I actually meant that their teams' respective offense is designed to go through Forte, Charles and Shady.

While a bit crude and by no means a complete analysis, when looking at rushing attempts and receiving targets on a combined basis as a percentage of total offensive plays run, each of Forte, Charles and Shady were the ball carrier or intended receiver on over 35% of their teams' offensive snaps last season:

Forte at 37.8%;
McCoy at 35.9%;
Charles at 35.2%

I've not run the analysis for everybody yet, but I've not found anyone else that is even at the 33% mark. For example, Peterson was at 31.3% and Lacy was 30.5% (as to both, I think it's mostly due to a weak number of targets in the passing game (39 for AP; 44 for Lacy), although both also missed a game or two I think so their numbers would adjust upward a tad if healthy --notably, for Lacy, about two-thirds of his receptions came in games in which Rodgers was out with injury, so it's a bit unclear if Rodgers' presence will help him in the passing game)).

Equally crude but intriguing is that Charles, McCoy and Forte accounted for nearly a third of their teams' total offense as measured against total yards from scrimmage (Charles at 36.6%; McCoy at 31.6%; and Forte at 31.6%). By comparison, AP accounted for 26% of the Vikings' yards from scrimmage and Lacy 22.4% of the Packers' total offensive yardage (again, these numbers would adjust upwards slightly if they were healthy for the full slate, but still below 30% for AP and about 25% for Lacy if you assume two additional games at 100 yds total offense per game).

In any event, assuming standard scoring (i.e., non-PPR, 1 pt. every 10 rushing and receiving, 6 pt. TD), I calculate that Forte and Lacy would be 8 points apart using your predicted stats -- the difference being Lacy's predicted 14 rushing TDs. Not saying that he can't do that, but recognize that exactly 2 RBs have accomplished that in the past 4 seasons (Foster twice and McCoy once).

We are going to have to agree to disagree. You can have your stats I'll take my football brain. Lacy was not going to go from Alabama to Green Bay and immediately understand his responsibilities as far as pass protection. You can't judge an RBs pass pro or blitz pickup/recognition until you face live bullets. At Bama they were more PA which usually involves gap inside/out protection. In the nfl you have more scan reads unless they go full slide which is stupid trying to put a RB on a DE unless it's a rock step. I see Lacy playing more snaps based on him becoming more of a three down back. You can look at Forte's career and see who he is, you can look at Lacy's rookie year as see how much better he will be as he progresses.

I would only draft forte ahead of Lacy in a ppr.

[Bomm Bastic]

We are going to have to agree to disagree. You can have your stats I'll take my football brain. Lacy was not going to go from Alabama to Green Bay and immediately understand his responsibilities as far as pass protection. You can't judge an RBs pass pro or blitz pickup/recognition until you face live bullets. At Bama they were more PA which usually involves gap inside/out protection. In the nfl you have more scan reads unless they go full slide which is stupid trying to put a RB on a DE unless it's a rock step. I see Lacy playing more snaps based on him becoming more of a three down back. You can look at Forte's career and see who he is, you can look at Lacy's rookie year as see how much better he will be as he progresses.

I would only draft forte ahead of Lacy in a ppr.

Great points re pass protection. That is often overlooked. That said, my beef was seeing these lame commercial sites ranking Lacy over Forte for 2014-15. Obviously a dynasty league I would love Lacy, but this year taking Lacy over Forte due to a presumption that he will improve/get more carries/different offensive scheme etc...I think is wrong.

But great discussion, and it mirrors the others I've had.

[Bazz]

Great points re pass protection. That is often overlooked. That said, my beef was seeing these lame commercial sites ranking Lacy over Forte for 2014-15. Obviously a dynasty league I would love Lacy, but this year taking Lacy over Forte due to a presumption that he will improve/get more carries/different offensive scheme etc...I think is wrong.

But great discussion, and it mirrors the others I've had.

I don't know how he gets that many more carries, he was five behind forte in one less game. I just think we see an uptick in production, more so in the passing game.