Kopitar is sell high in my eyes...
Ok so my team went from a perennial contender (won 3 of the last 4 seasons prior to this)- to an embarassingly bad finish this year- bottom half of a 22 team league. I was initially inclined to blame injuries and some odd slumps- but Im not so sure anymore. Ive traded some top end talent to fill holes and lost Kovalchuk for nothing this season. On top of that lots of the guys I have are suddenly in decline or precarious situations.
Ill post my guys- and some thoughts on how Im looking at handling them. We start 9 forwards, 4 defense, and 1 goalie with daily changes. We carry 4 subs. My league scoring is in my sig. I have to drop or trade 2 guys for picks to get down to 12 before next season starts. Any insight would be welcome:
My surefire keepers:
Malkin- Unmovable.
Kopitar- Unmovable- although those articles comparing him to Bergeron have me worried :P
Parise- Initially considered un-movable but its starting to look like he really has regressed. Am i too stubborn in keeping him? He may be able to land me Hornqvist...
Zetterberg- I know hes a divisive name based on his injury status- but I like him- hes a beast in our format when healthy.
Byfuglien- Hes a beast- even if he plays forward he'll still count as a d-man- one of the best in our format.
My "Cusp" guys:
Hemsky- Im pretty stoked to keep him now that hes landed in Dallas with Spez.
Smith (Craig)- I dont mind this guy at all and think he is "sneaky" valuable in a league this deep.
Chara- Im ok keeping Chara but his role on the team and output offensively has changed. Hes not old per se but hes getting up there.
Hossa- Hes such a weird guy because he produces so solidly every year but Ive gotten peanuts in terms of trade offers for him. Hes seen as old and basically just avoided in trade talks. If i am contending- which I feel like I am- then hes a guy Id want to keep.
Hudler- I like Huds and hes a fringe keeper. At this point I may have an offer to land a couple decent picks for him- at least 1 first rounder. I dont necessarily want to move him but Id be able to keep one of M.Richards or Clowe and also get a very decent pick (this years draft has two teams "dispersing" so it will be juicier than normal). Again I actually like Huds but he doesnt shoot a ton which is a big part of our format and it prevents me from losing an asset for free.
Green- He is so frusterating. Ive held on long enough. I feel like his value is about to implode ala Ryan whitney. Now who do I ask for in return?
Fleury- Another guy that terrifies me. Hes actually a consitent top 5 force in our format because it is very heavily win-biased. That being said- I feel like hes only a few bad performances from a very severe becnhing or even traded into obscurity. Again hes too valuable to just ship out- but what can I ask for? Goalies are HUGE in our format- you basically cant compete without a top 10 tender.
My "junk"
Mike Richards- at this point Im trying to move him for basically anybody based on his name recognition. Am i being too hard on him? He was 4th line in the playoffs...
Clowe- If hes even a 50ish point player hes fine as a last keeper in this format. Is he even that anymore?
Anyways would love to hear some thoughts. i sent out a boatoad of offers and will update this thread as I hear back...
Kopitar is sell high in my eyes...
Don't get caught up thinking Parise is done. He's not the 80/90pt guy he once was...but he's starting to come back around. 29 points in his final 28 games, with PP numbers, and on a team that's getting better.
I WILL say that you might be able to move him based on his name, but he's still pretty solid. I made the mistake of moving him this past season - kinda wish I hadn't.
Kopitar is very solid too. He may not be a PPG guy (he has one 80pt season), but there are worse things than top-line centres that score 70points and have good peripheral numbers.
To me, your top five guys are really good.
But your "cusp" guys are mostly guys you need to consider moving.. The Hemskys, Hossas, Charas, Greens of the world are slowly losing value and it may be time to consider packaging them up and moving along.
I will say as well...that until Fleury actually loses his job, he's worth holding on to. Simple as that. You can look into trading him, of course, but his regular season numbers have always been pretty good.
I would say fluery is a great goalie for the regular season. GMs seem to devalue him because of playoffs and it hurts trade wise, but helps when it comes to being a smart GM. Quick is the opposite of Fluery, average goalie but great in playoffs. I would say keep who youve said to keep, you need that goalie with 22 teams in the league a solid goalie is a big aset. I would dangle Clowe and Chara out there for a trade, i'm not a fan of Chara and he's getting old. If no one goes for a trade with Chara, sell him in the season right off the bat
12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 (in Bold)
G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks
W, Saves, S%, GAA, Game Started
2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA
C:
LW:
RW:
D:
Util:
G:
When you consider the lack of real depth on this team it is the best way for him to rebuild? Trying to hold onto one key piece when the supporting cast is poor makes no sense - if he has a similiar year next year does he get more in a trade than this year? Probably not - that's my point lol
Personally, I would try to shop around Chara and Green to upgrade your forwards while they still have value. I really like Hemsky and Smith in your "cusp" list, I would definitely keep them. All the others are expendanble in my opinion.
You are implying three things:
1) Kopitar won't exceed 70 pts again, or is beginning a decline now
2) The GM won't have a team ready to compete for over 5 years, making Kopitar not valuable to his goals
3) You trade away top talent for a bit of depth in a limited keeper.
All 3 of those are incorrect. You keep Kopitar, not "sell high" right now.
Not saying he is declining at all but I would bet that he is more likely to hit 70
points again before he hits 80
who else fetches the return that Kopitar would on that team? Yes in an ideal world you trade Chara, Green etc but what is the return on those guys? Not much
he finished bottom half of a 22 team league so he has a lot of work to do and for me means he may not be 5 years away but he is a few so I'll ask again - will Kopitars trade value ever be higher than it is now? And who said a bit of depth - with kopitar someone will over pay - you could land 2 or 3 quality pieces that would contribute more than kopitar overall and mean you have more assets to work with to then package your lesser players to get better returns and turn this team around quicker
Drop M.Richards & Clowe (as OP has figured).
I'm not inclined to make moves in the off-season though.
I think it is time to retool your defensemen, and these would be the first to go while you will still get something for them. Washington signing Niskanen is a clear sign that the Mike Green era is just about over in Wa-Wa land. Chara is going to start losing more and more pp time as both Krug and Hamilton continue to develop.
Bottleneckers (12/16 in 2022)
16 team, points only. G: 2-W, 4-SO.
Top 9F, 4D & 1G . Keep 15, Max 23
F: J. Robertson, J. Hughes, Tavares, Lafreniere, Cozens, Newhook, Teravainen, Domi, R. Strome, Laine, Rossi, Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti
D: Bouchard, McAvoy, Morrissey, Heiskanen
G: Vasilevskiy
Ok- I really appreciate the insight guys!
From what Ive read Ive kind of narrowed it down to a couple thoughts/questions.
1) Who are my most trade-able assets?
Sounds like Im hearing Chara for trade. To me Hudler is out there too- based on his low sog- he should still get an ok return though I think based on age/upside. Ill float Greens name out- but dont expect a lot of interest- ditto for Hossa. Hemsky is someone I should probably move but will probably be stubborn with- lol! And Smith I feel ok about- actually didnt know he was such a sog machine (251- 51st in the league).
2) Move Fleury?
Sounds like no- which i agree with- but man is it a roller coaster having him as your only legit starter in your main keeper.
3) Explore Kopi/Parise offers?
I like the support I heard to keep them. Also this is a funny league where you very rarely get a fair "player for player" offer. Most offers for premiere players are either laughable or heavily weighted towards futures aka prime picks/prospects.
4) Can I get anything for Mike Richards???
Im hearing no. Jesus that guys a schmuck :P
this.
Kopitar is a beast and if you move him you will only end up with a player not as elite. keep the better player imo. With your roster id definitely wait until the dust settles and you see where guys land. hemsky, and smith could have big years. And what goalie isnt a roller coaster to own? Stick with fluery for sure but id be looking at throwing a young hot shot goalie up n comer goalie on your bench.(not giguere) Your lineup is getting a little age to it, I'd try and pick up a promising forward, a young up and comer... any of tampas youth from kucherov to johnson and everything inbetween. Or Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver have reloaded with alot of sleeper youth. Defense as well looks like it could use a splash of youth. After losing a few key guys and having such a limited roster in a big league, you might have to take a rebuild hit this season to let some top end young talent develop, crash and burn this season for the mcdavid draft? lol... just sayin.
Fwds: Benn, Hertl, Backstrom, Coleman, W.Karlsson, Marchand, Mcdavid, Bergeron, A.svechnikov, Malkin, W.Nylander, toffoli.
Dfnse: Deangelo, Fox, Hronek, Ristolainen, Giordano, Letang
Goalie: Samsonov, Binnington
Rsrvs: Radulov, bjorkstrand, buchnevich, krebs, sanford, Grzelcyk, Suter, M.Lehtonen, Severson, Spurgeon, K'andre Miller, Allen, Mrazek, Prosvetov, Vanecek
12-team Keeper. Rotisserie.
G,A,+/-,Hits,Blks,Pim,Sog,PPP,HT,SHPTS,W,Spct,Gaa,SO,Svs
I think Kopitars point total is relative to Quicks performance. Quick does bad Kopitar will do good. I think with the upgrades the other big teams have done (St Louis, Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado) we may see a slight decline in Quicks regular season numbers. When LA is down, they’ll let Kopitar loose and he has the chance to put up points. I’m looking at 70-75 pts in 2013-14 (if nothing drastic happens until then)
12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 (in Bold)
G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks
W, Saves, S%, GAA, Game Started
2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA
C:
LW:
RW:
D:
Util:
G:
Ok so Im gonna post this in trades too- but I figured Id drop it hear in case anyone whose responded to this thread and knows the direction Im looking towards wants to chime in.
So I made a gutsy offer and got a counter that doesnt sound great but may suit my purposes.
My Hossa/Hudler
for Yakupov/2nd
So it kind of pans out as Hossa for Yak- which is the main concern. Is that too much for yakupov? I feel like yes- but then again if he turns things around it doesnt look so bad. I know hes not in a great position to succeed in terms of where he slots in in EDMs lineup- but I dont mind waiting if he truly does have superstar potential.
Then it comes down to Hudler for a 2nd. This sounds funny but I think its ok. Im thinking Hudler has a bit of an offensive cap playing in CGY. I could be wrong- just my take. the bigger part is that it allows me to keep Clowe or M. Richards (or the guy i trade M. Richards for-in a handful of talks now for youth). The second rounder is hard to predict with 22 teams (33rd overall). It should be a relatively juicy draft with 2 teams dispersing. I may be too bold- but i feel like i can find a hudleresque type of skater in their- ok maybe Hudler lite.
Thoughts? Too much? Ask for a 1st? With a 1st I feel like I can get a Cammalleri/Erhoff or better...