It's really tough doing that on newcomers without a track record. This guy could jump in and do everything offensively that Backstrom did - and just as quickly. Or he could do everything that Filatov did. Best way to tackle it is to think of him as a Nichushkin and watch him come along slow and steady in the same way.
Worst case:
1 year: 7 points, 53 games and AHL time
2 years: 23 points, 68 games
3 years: angrily returns to KHL
4 years: still in KHL
Best case:
1 year: 58 points, Calder nomination
2 years: 74 points, clicking with Ovy and NB
3 years: 76 points
4 years: 76 points