58 points ~ over/under

[Barclay]

I've crunched all the numbers on what it takes to convincingly win my pool (based on all the past years stats).

I've come to the conclusion that my 5 remaining forwards need to on average score 28 goals and add 30 assists (58pts total).

With what percentage of certainty would you say that Mackinnon or Drouin will acheive this mark. 100%, 50% lower or inbetween.

Essentially all that matters to me is this year, the future upside is a bonus.

Thanks again!

[Bnhershy]

I don't think either will make that total. Take a look at past calder winners. It's been a while since that mark was hit in a rookie season. Never mind two in the same year.

[agoodburn]

I would bet on the under, but they both hold significant trade value, which could help you once the season gets going and you have a better needs assessment

[letnry]

I really don't have a lot to base this on, but I'll say one around 60 points +/-5 and the other under 58.

[Rocky71]

Here are the points obtained by first overall picks in the last six years:

Patrick Kane 72
Steven Stamkos 46
John Tavares 54
Taylor Hall 42 in 65 prorated 82 games = 53
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 52 in 62 prorated 82 games = 69
Nail Yakupov 31 in 48 prorated 82 games = 53

Odds are lower than 50%

[CascadeFilly]

Lower than 50%. I think 28 goals will be particularly hard for a rookie to garner.

[Mattp913]

I'd say around 38%

[Barclay]

Thanks for the quick replys. I could settle for 50points as well. But with all the hype on these two (seemingly more than then the last two years, maybe just to me?), I wanted to see what the thoughts were. I guess I won't be reaching on either of them

[Leafsin2050]

25% chance for both of them

[mister_mcgoo]

Thanks for the quick replys. I could settle for 50points as well. But with all the hype on these two (seemingly more than then the last two years, maybe just to me?), I wanted to see what the thoughts were. I guess I won't be reaching on either of them

that's more reasonable to be sure but personally I think Mac gets you those 58 pts you need.

[Zorro]

It all comes down to who they play with this season.. If Drouin lines up with Stamkos and St.Louis, I bet he reaches that mark..