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Thread: Quick advice: Blockbuster, re: Toews and S.Jones

  1. #31
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    fung, I get where you're coming from, and following those convictions is a huge part of being a good fantasy hockey GM.

    I feel like I'm alone on an island with my support for Jaden Schwartz -- I'm pretty convinced his best comparable is Parise, insane heart/drive though a little less gritty and a little more slick -- but I'm sticking by that view.

    The one side of the equation you're missing out on in your rationale is the cost associated with paying for the conviction in terms of lost production between the time you pull the trigger and the time the player grows into their game.

    Yes, you paid Phaneuf and Stewart for Karlsson. In a points league today, it's very unlikely that you could swing that deal. But between the time you pulled the trigger on the deal (I'm assuming around 2009) and when Karlsson exploded in the league (2011-12), you lost out bigtime. Food for thought.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Yes, you paid Phaneuf and Stewart for Karlsson. In a points league today, it's very unlikely that you could swing that deal. But between the time you pulled the trigger on the deal (I'm assuming around 2009) and when Karlsson exploded in the league (2011-12), you lost out bigtime. Food for thought.
    Yes and no. Because my league is a Start 13F/6D/2G deep keeper, when I made that trade, Phaneuf was currently #5 or so on my D depth chart. That means, the drop from him to the player I had to promote, was most likely 10-20 pool points at best over the season. Stewart was a player chosen with the pick I traded - although I had another player targeted at that slot (who I ended up getting a round later anyway). So, for missing out on 10-20 pool points over a year or 2, I was able to stash away the best offensive D-Man in fantasy.

    The way I was looking at the James Neal deal that I made today was:

    Neal will be among my top 13 starters each week. By adding him, Dustin Brown was demoted to my bench (any given average week, barring injury). I project Neal to produce between 30-50 more pool points than Brown in my format each year. Was gaining that boost, enough to deal an 18 year old D prospect who I consider to have Subban/Yandle-ish upside? If it was a 1-for-1 deal, no.

    Even though the potential difference between Jones (even when he arrives) and Doughty/Shattenkirk (on my roster) is maybe 20-25 pool points, the trade weight that he carries, makes him gold status in my league.

    But then I had to consider Charlie Coyle vs. Aleksander Barkov. Was that swap enough to warrant bailing on Jones? Projections for Coyle are all over the place - ranging between a top-line scorer and 3rd line checker with special teams ability. I've seen predictions of a very good 70 point player countered by that of a decent "fantasy" player with 55-60 point upside.

    People rave about Barkov - poolies and scouts alike. I worry that he will be more playmaker than shooter and I'm not thrilled that he's on Flordia, but most consider him one of the best Scandinavian prospects since Mats Sundin, Peter Forsberg or the Twins - that gets my attention.

    Based on what I know, Barkov has a better chance ending up a star player than Coyle. That, added to the fact that I got another pick upgrade, made this a deal that I had to take, emotional attachment to Jones aside.

    I know sometimes my proposed deals look like "no-brainers" but if you really dig and consider my format, my roster and trade values, it's not always cut and dry.

    Earlier in the summer I traded Zetterberg and Kronwall+ for a package that landed me Hamilton and Granlund+. On the surface, I'm sure people would be like, "what?!" But if you consider the age of Zetts and Kronwall, and that they are not BIG upgrades over any of my current starters, it made sense for me to restock those positions with puppies blessed with All-Star potential. When Chara is done, Hamilton should be a 50-55 point machine. I'd rather restock that slot that have Kronwall and Doughty duke it out each week to see who starts for me - after a few years of that, Kronwall will be on the decline and Hamilton will be a beast.

    As always, I love your insight buddy. You're definitely one of the boys here I'd love to kick back and discuss hockey strategy with over a few beers.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  3. #33
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    Well, Neal was just flipped in a second deal. I sent him to another GM for Huberdeau and the 7th overall (Rattie, Monahan or Pulock most likely).

    The overall deal ended up being:

    Jones
    Coyle
    20th pick
    23rd pick

    for

    Huberdeau
    4th pick (Barkov)
    7th pick (Rattie/Monahan/Pulock)
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    True point - based on Dobber numbers. That said, they change based on performance and experience. If we look at Dobber's numbers 2-3 years ago in regards to Subban, I'd bet they are a lot different than his upside numbers today, no?

    I'm a firm believer that fantasy GMs need to use intuition and instinct to predict the future a bit. If not, we'll always be over-paying or under-selling.

    For example, a few years ago I traded Dion Phaneuf and a pick (ended up being Chris Stewart) for a tiny defenseman with "upside" named Erik Karlsson. I had a gut hunch that he would soon be a 70 point defenseman and some people here told me I was "way too optimistic" at the time. If I NEVER pulled the trigger on that deal, do you think there's a chance in hell today I could land Karlsson for the same package?

    Even though I made this trade today, I'm a FIRM believer that Seth Jones will end up a top (perhaps borderline-elite) offensive defensemen within the next 3-5 years. I encourage anyone who cares to get him now before it's too late.

    If I didn't have Hamilton, Rielly, Faulk and Pouliot in my farm there is ZERO chance I make this trade, regardless of how "proven" James Neal is. I am also banking on Sasha Barkov being "close" to a Kopitar clone. I also plan on landing one (or two) of Pulock, Ristolainen, Morrissey or Theodore in my upcoming draft which will soften the blow of losing out on Jones.
    Totally 100% right. Instinct plays a huge role BUT when you are trading a player with big upside who is a defenseman compared to a hugely productive forward, my opinion is that one would be silly not to do it. Even if jones turns our to be a dirty dawg, you are trading for a guarantee - an a guarantee who has huge value in a multi-cat league. You always gotta judge and use your instinct to decide if its worth it to give up that player with big upside, but look at EJ. I mean, this guy was as much of a guarantee as you get. Not saying jones becomes EJ, but every fantasy GM felt the same about EJ as they do about Jones - if not even higher. Jones looks like a lock, but fung paid for a guarantee. Ill take a deadlock over a slide bolt any day
    10tm Dynasty Lg - $96M CAP
    G A PTS +/- PIM PPP SOG W GAA SV% SO

    C: Barkov, Eichel, McDavid
    RW: P. Kane, Okposo
    LW: E. Kane, Couture
    D: Subban, Byfuglien, Faulk, Vatanen, Morgan Reilly
    G: Schneider, Gibson/Andersen
    UTIL: Kuznetsov, Kadri, Little, Stone


    Farm
    D: J. Schultz, Sekera, Hanifin, Hamonic
    F: Spooner, Silfverberg, Konecny, Roussell
    G: F. Andersen/Gibson, Mason, Ward, Anderson


    Prospect:
    F - D Strome, Burakovsky, Raantanen, Bjorkstrand
    D - Ryan Murphy

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    Well, Neal was just flipped in a second deal. I sent him to another GM for Huberdeau and the 7th overall (Rattie, Monahan or Pulock most likely).

    The overall deal ended up being:

    Jones
    Coyle
    20th pick
    23rd pick

    for

    Huberdeau
    4th pick (Barkov)
    7th pick (Rattie/Monahan/Pulock)
    You must really hate Neal!!! I feel like you should have stuck with the first deal. Then again, I also feel like you know your shit.
    10tm Dynasty Lg - $96M CAP
    G A PTS +/- PIM PPP SOG W GAA SV% SO

    C: Barkov, Eichel, McDavid
    RW: P. Kane, Okposo
    LW: E. Kane, Couture
    D: Subban, Byfuglien, Faulk, Vatanen, Morgan Reilly
    G: Schneider, Gibson/Andersen
    UTIL: Kuznetsov, Kadri, Little, Stone


    Farm
    D: J. Schultz, Sekera, Hanifin, Hamonic
    F: Spooner, Silfverberg, Konecny, Roussell
    G: F. Andersen/Gibson, Mason, Ward, Anderson


    Prospect:
    F - D Strome, Burakovsky, Raantanen, Bjorkstrand
    D - Ryan Murphy

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ridinryan44 View Post
    You must really hate Neal!!! I feel like you should have stuck with the first deal. Then again, I also feel like you know your shit.
    I despise Neal lol. I don't want to have to cheer for him. But I am a huge Huberdeau fan and the deal ended up being Neal for Huberdeau and the 7th overall pick, which will end up being one of:

    - Elias Lindholm
    - Valeri Nichushkin
    - Sean Monahan
    - Ty Rattie
    - Tyler Toffoli
    - Jiri Tlusty

    The way I see it, I parlayed Seth Jones and Charlie Coyle into Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and one of the above - a deal I needed to make.

    I like Huberdeau over Neal for a few reasons:

    1. He is 20 years old, fresh off the Calder and I consider his upside between 80-90 points.

    2. HE is the Panthers offensive engine and, when paired with Barkov, will grow into one of the best young forwards in the game.

    3. When not playing with Malkin or Crosby, due to injury, Neal goes into the tank. He is a nasty sniper but is dependent on his center to produce at a top level - Huberdeau will be the man.

    4. Having a nice Huberdeau/Barkov hook-up will be fun to own. I am also targeting Markstrom in my draft so it will be fun watching the Panthers.

    5. I think Huberdeau and Lindholm over Neal is solid in a deep, long-term keeper.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  7. #37
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    I like Hubs but would've kept Neal or sought more guaranteed production for him. Overall I still like the return you got, though.

    7th overall I would go Nichushkin. If he's gone, then Monahan then Lindholm...then if all of them were gone I say just grab Tlusty.
    Last edited by The Hockey Hitman; August 31, 2013 at 12:42 AM.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hockey Hitman View Post
    I like Hubs but would've kept Neal or sought more guaranteed production for him.
    That's definitely a fair point. I was thinking about that but my team won't make or break based on Neal's extra production over Huberdeau this year. The slot that Neal was going to fill for me will be platooned this year between Huberdeau, D.Brown, van Riemsdyk and Tarasenko.

    In a weekly H2H, Neal is solid for 6-8 points any average week, sans a rare goose egg and some monster 10+ weeks. The other guys are good for a solid 4-6 with some eggs and bumps up to 8-12.

    Long-term though, I believe Huberdeau is on a superstar path and will be responsible for his own offense, soon scoring 75-85 with a ceiling of 90 or more. When I look at Huberdeau I see a lot of Giroux and Pat Kane.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    True point - based on Dobber numbers. That said, they change based on performance and experience. If we look at Dobber's numbers 2-3 years ago in regards to Subban, I'd bet they are a lot different than his upside numbers today, no?
    Actually, I think the answer to this is no. The upside numbers should not change much, if at all. This number is supposed to represent the highest total if everything goes right. And only 5% of players are supposed to hit this number. It is the 3YP that is adjusted based on performance and experience.

    http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index...d.php&t=109253

    “3YP” is a new predictive stat that I introduced with the 2010-11 Midseason Fantasy Guide. It refers to “Three-Year Probable”. It takes a snapshot of what we believe will be the three best years of this player’s NHL career going forward and takes an average of those years. Unlike upside, which is rarely adjusted, the 3YP is constantly being adjusted as we see more from the player. The 3YP does, however, assume that he
    will make the NHL."

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