Eberle or Drouin?

[rataylor22]

No he's not. 76 points in season two. By the very definition of the term, he is not a 60 point forward.

Not necessarily saying to do the deal (I passed on an offer of Eberle for my MackInnon, and it wasn't salary cap), but let's give credit where credit is due. Eberle is one hell of a player.

Correct. He got 76 points with a 19% percent shooting percentage. Last season when he was shooting reasonably well at 12%, he was on pace for 63 points. His career average is 14.2. Using 14.2 and projecting over a full season, that would have given him 5 more goals or 68 points. Regressing his 19% to 14.2%, that changes his career average to 13.4%. Over a full season that would give him 3 more goals, or 66 points. So I am giving him full credit for being a 60-65 point player. Regress Eberle's goal totals from his 76 point season using his career average shooting percentage and he would have 26 goals instead of 34. Giving him 68 points. Maybe 65-70 would have been more fair. Now lets project. Yakupov is a better player than Eberle. So does Eberle stay on the top line with Hall and RNH? Next year? Probably. In the future? Unlikely, but maybe. Even if he does, he won't stay on the top PP with those guys. So is there any argument for Eberle's points to increase? No. I think he is likely to stay were he is, which is a 60-70 point player (let's give him a wider range). So yea, I would easily take the 90 point upside of Drouin (along with the cap savings) over the 60-70 point player that Eberle is.

[Call of Doughty]

I own Eberle and will draft Drouin with my 1st overall.

Although Eberle's upside is "slightly" lower than Drouins, I firmly believe that Eberle will outpoint him over the next 3 seasons and is good for at least 74-76 points this season. That 60 point talk is rubbish. Check the guide to see where Eberle is projected to fall in the top 20. You might be surprised.

Don't forget, Eberle played with a partially broken hand for a good part of the season last year. He admitted on the show "Oil Change" how it was painful to play with.

Eberle is one of my most valuable keepers on my team, and would be one of the last guys I let go.

[rataylor22]

I didn't forget CoD, I just legitimately believe Eberle is overhyped, overrated, and a 60-70 point player. Which is not to say that is bad. Consistent 60-70 point producers are fantastic hockey players. But people talk about Ebs like he's gonna put up 80+ points, superstar ability and he is valued like that in fantasy. He's just not that good.

[Thunder]

Those are interesting numbers and not to be totally dismissed.

But statistical projections based on 195 games played, including a large chunk as a rookie and another large chunk while injured only gets us so far.

I'm not a big Oilers fan, so it's not like I've seen tons of Eberle. But what I have seen over the years has impressed, both in terms of talent and attitude. I tend to be conservative in my player valuations, but he's a guy I have comfortably pegged in the 70+ range.

Also, while a player's situation (linemates, etc.) is certainly relevant, those things change. Looking long-term, I tend to rely much more on factors that are intrinsic to the player.

Anyway, not disagreeing in a big way. I'd probably roll the dice with Drouin. But it's close IMO.

[RJIII]

I like Drouin at a $3.2 mil cap hit over Eberle at $6 mil this year. Even if Drouin only gives you 40 points, that's still a pretty solid piece in a cap league and his value will rise as his production increases in years 2 and 3 of his entry level deal. It's a bit of a roll of the dice, but I think it's worth it.

[deantime419]

Drouin will likely hold more value than Eberle in cap leagues at the moment. Who the actual better option is longterm though is a coinflip IMO.

A lot depends on a team by team basis. If you're struggling to get down to the cap, Eberle+ for Drouin is likely a smart trade. If you have no cap issues and think you can contend this year, trading your Drouin for Eberle is probably not a bad idea either.

[ds760]

Is Drouin a lock to be in the NHL this year?

[als_revenge]

The three stat providers I'm using this year peg Eberle at: 75 (Dobber), 80 (Hockey News) and 78 (Sports Forecaster). So a 60 to 65 range seems a bit low compared to the concensus from these three sources.

Also interesting (to me) is Dobber's 3YP. Eberle at 84 (his best three years to come will average 84), versus Drouin at 73.

A lot of people seem to get hung up on the "upside" stat (Dobber has Drouin's upside at 95, versus 92 for Eberle).

When Dobber created the 3YP, he said his goal was to be at least 50% accurate on this stat. Whereas for upside, only 15% are projected to hit their number and only 5% surpass it.

Based on this thread, I'd say either Dobber has no idea what he is doing or there are a few folks out there that are placing too much stock in the potential outpoint of 18 year old kids.

All the Drouin's easily remarks only make sense to me if we are talking about the cap implications.