Inaugural Keeper Draft - Mackinnon, Drouin etc.

[PSlipps]

We have our initial draft this Sunday. I have lots of experience with keeper leagues in the last couple years, but I always struggle with where to take the rookies. This year with the kids - Mackinnon, Drouin, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Barkov, Huberdeau, Granlund. Where should I be looking to take these guys? This draft is gonna be the best shot at acquiring them, especially Mack Yak and Drouin. At what point do I grab one instead of the proven 70 pt guy?

Anyone have any experience this year with evaluating a draft position for them?

[Mattp913]

I've been thinking about that question myself lately. It all depends how the draft goes and who is left when each is available but I would reach for them fairly high. (except Grandlund because he is nowhere near the player anyone else on that list...there's tons of other young guys I would take ahead of him)

[ross10019]

(except Grandlund because he is nowhere near the player anyone else on that list...there's tons of other young guys I would take ahead of him)

You're making that call on the basis of all of 27 games in the NHL, at the age of 20? What about his 28 pts in 29 games in the AHL last year?

Man I'm amazed at how quicly people sour on prospects when they have barely a few games under their belts.

I think it's fair to say that you might consider taking all those guys ahead of Granlund, I probably would too at this stage, but to say he's "nowhere near" them is ridiculous given what Granlund has shown at other levels, especially the SM Liiga from the ages of 17-20. Barkov's numbers in the same league don't match up. So if Barkov starts off with 8 pts in his first 27 games this year, which could easily happen, are you then gonig to say he too is "nowhere near the others"?

As a reminder, Joe Thornton had 7 pts in his first 55 games...

[Mattp913]

You're making that call on the basis of all of 27 games in the NHL, at the age of 20? What about his 28 pts in 29 games in the AHL last year?

Man I'm amazed at how quicly people sour on prospects when they have barely a few games under their belts.

I think it's fair to say that you might consider taking all those guys ahead of Granlund, I probably would too at this stage, but to say he's "nowhere near" them is ridiculous given what Granlund has shown at other levels, especially the SM Liiga from the ages of 17-20. Barkov's numbers in the same league don't match up. So if Barkov starts off with 8 pts in his first 27 games this year, which could easily happen, are you then gonig to say he too is "nowhere near the others"?

As a reminder, Joe Thornton had 7 pts in his first 55 games...

I'm not saying he won't be good, just not up there with those other guys. I was never as high on Granlund to begin with. He's had concussions and his style of play and size could easily lead to more. I'd way rather have Baertschi,Strome,Tarasenko. Granlund's birthday is Februrary vs Barkov's Semptember birthday so Granlund was about 7 months older than Barkov when each put up their numbers in their league. You mention Granlund's 28 pts in 29 AHL games...Brandon Pirri put up 75pts in 76 AHL games so will he be as good as Granlund? I never soured on Granlund because I never had him as high as McKinnon,Drouin,Yakupov,Huberdeau,Galchenyuk to begin with. I won't sour on Barkov with a slow start because he's much bigger, stronger,and younger than Granlund and I just see him having alot more upside, especially when he's going to be cemented on the top line with Huberdeau longterm.

[Reuben]

I'll stay away from this Granlund debate...

Suffice it to say that, in an inaugural draft, you're not going to take McKinnon first overall. He, Drouin, Huberdeau, the rest of the guys you mention are likely guys you'll take 3,4, 5th round if you're trying to mix the odd young guy in with a legit group of veteran players. McKinnon and Drouin's offensive potential means they could go higher, obviously

But the other tact to take is focussing on those young guys...but you'd have to realize that you might take a couple/few years to be competitive.

Ie- you've got the 6th pick overall. Take a younger guy, as in Tavares or Giroux. In the 2nd round, look for McKinnon. Third round, you focus on another really young stud - ie, Huberdeau or Drouin. And then you fill from there..but with a focus on young guys.

Obviously, this isn't the ideal way to do things for most fantasy GMs. But this is one chance to really load up on young potential superstars, while other GMs might still be adding the slightly older players of the world. IE- you've got a choice between Jeff Carter or Galchenyuk in the 4th roundish. Take Gally.

I fully expect to have some people NOT agreeing with this advice..but in our first draft four years ago I went with Stamkos (after his rookie year) and Ryan with my first two picks. Got laughed at, but Stamkos certainly worked out. Tavares was available into the 5th, 6th round (it was his draft year). I later traded for him during a rookie drought.

If I could do that draft over, I'd have simply drafted Stamkos and Tavares in the first two rounds (you can't go wrong with first overall picks) then added the Ryan's, Giroux's, other vets in the later rounds.

Of course, this also depends on the drafting savvy of your fellow GMs, too.

But, as I said above, you're going to have to decide if you want a veteran and competitive team off the bat..or a younger, could-be-awesome team that's going to take a couple/few years to really kick ass

[Shoeless]

In a 12 team inaugral draft, I think present day values suggest something like this.

MacKinnon - mid 3rd round
Yakupov and Huberdeau - late 3rd round early 4th
Galyenchuk - mid 5th round
Drouin - early 7th round
Barkov - early 9th round

Be interesting to see what happens in drafts like this as we head to the season opener.

[leaftodd]

I hate to disagree with Shoeless as its bad for my mojo but here goes.

Someone in your draft will be willing to throw in this year as a non-entity. He'll draft those guys starting in round 2. Drouin will go much much before round 7. My money is on one of your guys taking MacKinnon in 2. Then following up with Yak in 3. Probably in a position to get his picks closer together and that will start a run. If it doesnt he'll proceed to pick up Huber and Drouin next 2 rounds.

An example. In one of my leagues that split off into a separate league and drafted for the 12-13 season a particularly youth oriented GM named Qubax did this.

Round 1. RNH
Round 2. Seguin
Round 4 Markstrom
Round 6 Bernier
Round 7 Huberdeau
Round 8 R Joh (from clb)
Round 9 Connolly

This continued down to the lower rounds where he started picking up the overpriced nhl talent left by others to fill in his roster.

If you have a limit on your roster size that's tight. Or you have a cap. There will be older more expensive guys just lying around at the end undrafted. He also dealt an early pick to buy up in the first entry draft as we split our inaugural from the entry that we run each year so he added in Terravainen. And then by going so young finished last this year and added Mackinnon. He's ridiculously loaded in talent now and almost set to make a multi year run at this thing.

Don't be afraid to be the guy drafting kids while everyone else drafts talent. In a year or two from draft it can put you in the position for a dynasty.

[Shoeless]

I don't see disagreement here, leaftodd. I was indicating where I thought a player's value was, not where I thought someone might draft him. You are probably right that someone will jump in on these players earlier and I personally think it's too soon.

[ds760]

Is Drouin even going to play in the NHL next year? I haven't heard he actually will be. Could be another year before he makes it.

[bletchley]

We have our initial draft this Sunday. I have lots of experience with keeper leagues in the last couple years, but I always struggle with where to take the rookies. This year with the kids - Mackinnon, Drouin, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Barkov, Huberdeau, Granlund. Where should I be looking to take these guys? This draft is gonna be the best shot at acquiring them, especially Mack Yak and Drouin. At what point do I grab one instead of the proven 70 pt guy?

Anyone have any experience this year with evaluating a draft position for them?

HOw many teams?

[bletchley]

The league I run, going on 15 years now, does a value thing every year voting on players. We only vote on players on who we'd rather own. It's an extensive vlauing process.

If you click here: http://sniperscup.com/wp/?p=4999

Scroll to the bottom and you can see the table valuing the players in our league.

I love high end prospects and guys like Mac or Drouin and Hubs would go high from exepierenced GMs. These 3, especially, can start on your squad today and in 3 years will be awesome.

[bletchley]

In a 12 team inaugral draft, I think present day values suggest something like this.

MacKinnon - mid 3rd round
Yakupov and Huberdeau - late 3rd round early 4th
Galyenchuk - mid 5th round
Drouin - early 7th round
Barkov - early 9th round

Be interesting to see what happens in drafts like this as we head to the season opener.

Totally off.

Mied 3 round for Mackinnon? hahaa please. He'd be late 1st rounder in my books in a 12 teams league. Over guys like Perry, Getzlaf...etc.