A Larsson vs M Dumba

[ccsitdown]

Hey guys. Who do you prefer long term in a keeper league (2nd in sig), points only? They are both parked on my farm at the moment. Other farm occupants include Bjugstad and Schwartz. Basically, I like to add a new prospect to the farm every draft as I want the farm to continually improve and produce - there are age caps to the positions as well, so it is nice to have a variable in the ages.

Is Larsson's latent game going to come to the forefront in the next three seasons? How does Dumba's offensive upside compare to Larsson's, and who is most likely to get there?

Thanks!

[SeaDawg]

I like Larsson a lot and think it is only a matter of time before he is given the reigns in New Jersey. There is no one ahead of him on the depth charts (long-term at least), whereas Dumba will always be behind Suter and Brodin.

[mounD]

I still like the upside of Matt Dumba here, but Larsson is probably the "safer" choice.

While Dumba does have Suter and Brodin ahead of him on the depth chart for years to come, I still feel like he could be a Dion Phaneuf type of player who is IMMENSELY valuable in leagues that count the typical offensive stats along with PIM/Hits, etc. I don't think the presence of Suter/Brodin is enough to stifle Dumba's upside as an offensive option, provided he becomes a more consistent player and more adept on the defensive side of the puck.

Larsson isn't alone on the Devils blueline, either. He is clearly the best option available long-term in the Devils organization, but youngsters like Damon Severson, Jon Merrill, and even Eric Gelinas aren't far off from NHL duty and look poised to play a part in the Devils offense from the blueline.

I would prefer Larsson if you are in a position to win in the next couple years, but if you are looking at this from a 4+ year outlook with long-term upside in mind, I would most definitely still side with Dumba. His stock seems to have fallen incredibly in the last calendar year, but the upside is still there and development takes time.

Short term / safe option: Larsson --- Long term / upside option: Dumba

Give me Dumba, personally.

[kevinsrangers]

id say dumba has a higher upside but larson has the chance to be the man in jersey.

[forsbergfan]

i've got a feeling dumba doesn't live up to the hype. he didn't have a good season. he's at most a number 3 dman behind suter and brodin, while larsson is a clear cut future number 1 dman.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I think Larsson is being underrated as a sleeper for this coming season. While I agree that Dumba's hit/block/PIM upside is really big, he could completely flame out -- as other posters have said he's high risk and high reward.

Larsson I don't think has nearly the downside because his game is so well rounded, and it's not like his offensive skills are poor. His perceived value has tumbled following his draft and easing-in by NJ, but I don't really see any reason for it. He's not going to be a 50+ point player, but the downside is 30ish. I'd take that over Dumba's volatility.

[The Hockey Hitman]

Not a believer in Dumba. Larsson on the other hand has been a victim of too many veteran defenseman ahead of him on the depth chart in New Jersey and DeBoer favors veterans. The trade of Tallinder out of NJ should open up ice time for Larsson and as of right now he's slated to be one of their top six defenseman. He'll be a restricted free agent next summer so I'm expecting a breakout season of sorts for Larsson. Nothing crazy but wouldn't surprise me to see 25-30 points.

Long-term I like Larsson's upside much better than Dumba's chances of putting it altogether at the NHL level.

[Dennis4022]

As this is points only i think Larsson is the most reasonable choice. Dumba could turn into a multicat stud, but he will not outscore Larsson in points, or at least not by much.

[als_revenge]

I'll go with Larsson too, for reasons already stated. I think he'll have more opportunity to be "the guy" and I think he's less likely to be a bust. Dumba is a very high risk/high reward type of guy. I'd only take on that type of risk if my team was really crappy and in a complete rebuild.

[chacks07]

I'd go with Larsson who's gonna be the number 1 D in New-Jersey very soon.

[mounD]

Don't get me wrong, I like Larsson a good bit. I just don't understand how everyone has soured on Matt Dumba so much in the past year. The offensive upside is still there, and despite the fact that his goal and point totals decreased (16-42 in 2012-13 from 20-57 in 2011-12) his overall PIM contributions increased from 67 to 80 and his +/- rating (I know, I know) went from a -6 to a +10, evidencing he has potentially made strides in his defensive game.

Given Dumba's aggressive nature, his willingness to throw his weight around, I feel he's a decent bet to improve his complete game enough to be able to show off his offensive upside in Minny. With Suter and Brodin carrying the weight defensively, Dumba should be able to slot in starting 2014-15 and contribute points on the PP along with solid Hits/PIMs totals.

I suppose the gamble is greater with Dumba, but the potential for putting up greater point totals than Larsson I think trumps the "safety" of grabbing Larsson here. Larsson could be a mid30s point producer on a regular basis -- Dumba could be putting up totals in the 40s or higher.

[fungchen3]

I think Dumba has more raw offensive chops but Larsson will be the #1D in NJ and packs a very solid skill set himself. I think he evolves into a reliable 40-45 point player within the next 2-3 seasons and may break 50 once or twice - kinda like Ryan Suterish in production.

[mister_mcgoo]

Don't get me wrong, I like Larsson a good bit. I just don't understand how everyone has soured on Matt Dumba so much in the past year. The offensive upside is still there, and despite the fact that his goal and point totals decreased (16-42 in 2012-13 from 20-57 in 2011-12) his overall PIM contributions increased from 67 to 80 and his +/- rating (I know, I know) went from a -6 to a +10, evidencing he has potentially made strides in his defensive game.

Given Dumba's aggressive nature, his willingness to throw his weight around, I feel he's a decent bet to improve his complete game enough to be able to show off his offensive upside in Minny. With Suter and Brodin carrying the weight defensively, Dumba should be able to slot in starting 2014-15 and contribute points on the PP along with solid Hits/PIMs totals.

I suppose the gamble is greater with Dumba, but the potential for putting up greater point totals than Larsson I think trumps the "safety" of grabbing Larsson here. Larsson could be a mid30s point producer on a regular basis -- Dumba could be putting up totals in the 40s or higher.

i agree with you here, he's definitely more of a boom or bust prospect but i like everything about him, i think he's got multi-cat written all over him