"Help me with my keepers" Thread #2319809 lol

[kovalchuk17]

Pretty straightforward, I gotta keep 5 guys.

8 team Roto
3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 4 D, 2 Util, 2 G, 6 BN
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FW, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO

I finished in second place by 0.5 pts (I was ahead by 0.5 entering the last day). Not particularly important what the rest of my team was since Im only deciding amongst my absolute studs but do know as theres only 8 teams goaltending is worth much less than normal due to the volatility of their stats year-in and year-out except for a few guys which will be kept.

Here are my current keeper rankings (keep 5)

1. Evgeni Malkin (lock)
2. Claude Giroux (lock, led the league in FWs)
3. Nicklas Backstrom (lock now that the real Ovechkin is resurfaced)
4. Taylor Hall (near lock, second in the West in scoring is impressive)
5. Kris Letang (point-per game defenseman but gets hurt)
6. PK Subban (multi-cat stud but I feel he overachieved with over 70% of his pts on the PP and Markov healthy all year being an anomaly)

7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
8. Nail Yakupov
9. Thomas Vanek

The rest of the team isnt worth mentioning, everyone listed has at least a small chance of being kept.

Im currently trying to do a 2-for-1 trade for a player Id unquestionably keep. I dont think keeping 2 dmen is wise (as mentioned i think Subban overachieved).

[DerekReese]

Pretty straightforward, I gotta keep 5 guys.

8 team Roto
3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 4 D, 2 Util, 2 G, 6 BN
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FW, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO

I finished in second place by 0.5 pts (I was ahead by 0.5 entering the last day). Not particularly important what the rest of my team was since Im only deciding amongst my absolute studs but do know as theres only 8 teams goaltending is worth much less than normal due to the volatility of their stats year-in and year-out except for a few guys which will be kept.

Here are my current keeper rankings (keep 5)

1. Evgeni Malkin (lock)
2. Claude Giroux (lock, led the league in FWs)
3. Nicklas Backstrom (lock now that the real Ovechkin is resurfaced)
4. Taylor Hall (near lock, second in the West in scoring is impressive)
5. Kris Letang (point-per game defenseman but gets hurt)
6. PK Subban (multi-cat stud but I feel he overachieved with over 70% of his pts on the PP and Markov healthy all year being an anomaly)

7. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
8. Nail Yakupov
9. Thomas Vanek

The rest of the team isnt worth mentioning, everyone listed has at least a small chance of being kept.

Im currently trying to do a 2-for-1 trade for a player Id unquestionably keep. I dont think keeping 2 dmen is wise (as mentioned i think Subban overachieved).

I think you have the right top 5 guys. It suck to let Subban for nothing so I would try to get a high 1st rd draft pick for him.

[MarmotKing]

I would keep forwards 1-4 and try to trade either Letang or Subban. You could try to package him up with a forward (like Backstrom, Hall or RNH) to maybe get an upgrade on your forwards.

If you couldn't get a trade, then I would probably keep Letang, even with the injury risk.

[Pengwin7]

With the 2 UTIL slots, this is essentially a 11F/4D pool.

With 8 teams, you've got 88F & 32D in play.
You need to keep players by "relative difference" to a waiver-wire player.

I have a spreadsheet with player values from this past year.
It's based ONLY on 6-categories: G,A,+-,PIM,PPP,SOG

Scores:
--------- Evgeni Malkin (C.* He is a lock and was injured, so score not applicable)
148.00 Taylor Hall (LW)
135.21 Claude Giroux (C)
127.75 Nicklas Backstrom (C)
...
~95pts Forward #88


159.01 PK Subban (D)
113.82 Kris Letang (D* Though injured)
~72pts Defenseman #32


So... now, by relative difference:
+87pts (PK Subban 159 - 72)
+53pts (Taylor Hall 148 - 95)
+42pts (Kris Letang 114 - 72)
+40pts (Claude Giroux 135 - 95)
+33pts (Nicklas Backstrom 128 - 95)


I'm actually cutting Nicklas Backstrom.
Yeah... I know Ovechkin seemed to be back... but he also had 27 PPP.

Even for Ovechkin... that's a LOT of PPP.
It also helped that Mike Green was back to self and that Mike Ribeiro helped out too (27 PPP).
What if Green goes gimpy?
Or Ribeiro signs elsewhere?

I'm a numbers person... and the numbers say that Backstrom is your weakest of the 6... even with the return-to-glory of Ovechkin.
If Ovechkin is any less glorious next year... than Backstrom becomes even further behind your other 5.

NickaBack is my cut.
I'm keeping your two ELITE d-men: Subban & Letang.

[MarmotKing]

Great analysis Pengwin7!

[SeaDawg]

...

that is why he is among my favorites around here...he takes all of the subjectivity out of the equation and boils it down to simple (well, not so simple for me) math

excellent advice worth listening to

The thing I love about this advice is that you have to cut someone (either Letang, Subban, or Backstrom) and more than likely the player in that group who has the most trade value is the one with the least value according to Pengwin's explanation, so it is a win-win situation for you.

[davidgoodburn]

With the 2 UTIL slots, this is essentially a 11F/4D pool.

With 8 teams, you've got 88F & 32D in play.
You need to keep players by "relative difference" to a waiver-wire player.

I have a spreadsheet with player values from this past year.
It's based ONLY on 6-categories: G,A,+-,PIM,PPP,SOG

Scores:
--------- Evgeni Malkin (C.* He is a lock and was injured, so score not applicable)
148.00 Taylor Hall (LW)
135.21 Claude Giroux (C)
127.75 Nicklas Backstrom (C)
...
~95pts Forward #88


159.01 PK Subban (D)
113.82 Kris Letang (D* Though injured)
~72pts Defenseman #32


So... now, by relative difference:
+87pts (PK Subban 159 - 72)
+53pts (Taylor Hall 148 - 95)
+42pts (Kris Letang 114 - 72)
+40pts (Claude Giroux 135 - 95)
+33pts (Nicklas Backstrom 128 - 95)


I'm actually cutting Nicklas Backstrom.
Yeah... I know Ovechkin seemed to be back... but he also had 27 PPP.

Even for Ovechkin... that's a LOT of PPP.
It also helped that Mike Green was back to self and that Mike Ribeiro helped out too (27 PPP).
What if Green goes gimpy?
Or Ribeiro signs elsewhere?

I'm a numbers person... and the numbers say that Backstrom is your weakest of the 6... even with the return-to-glory of Ovechkin.
If Ovechkin is any less glorious next year... than Backstrom becomes even further behind your other 5.

NickaBack is my cut.
I'm keeping your two ELITE d-men: Subban & Letang.

Agree 100% Backstrom is the odd man out here.

[kovalchuk17]

Pengwin7, that was the kind of analysis I was praying to receive.

Conventional wisdom would be to keep said forwards but point-per-game defenseman (even if PK only gets 60-65 pts, thats more valuable than an assist-heavy 80 pt center) are a rarer breed. I thought that may be being too progressive and stuck Backstrom at #3 based on pedigree. It sounds like hes my best candidate to trade, thank you.

Could you possibly share your spreadsheet? Theres probably some underappreciated middle-tier players ready to outperform their draft value in there

[Vancityguy]

Geez here I was all excited to throw down the keep P.K. not Backstrom bomb, great analysis Penquin.

The numbers only skew more when you add in the hits/pims, etc. PK was the 3rd best player overall in multi-cat systems like the OP's and I really don't think you can drop him, it would be a mistake.

Malkin/Hall/Grox/Letang/PK is pretty beast mode for your setup.

[Shoeless]

I think if you analyze for all the cats in this league that Taylor Hall is the odd man out here not Backstrom.

[leaftodd]

What i'm positive is being overlooked is the over performance of Subban. He is not what he showed this year over an 82 game sched.

I'd bet his pace declines to about 70% of his pace this year and while that's still good i feel you could trade him at 100% of his pace and make out like nostradamus.

Penguin's data is irrefutable and if you feel that Subban is what he showed this year then his advice is what i follow.

That said i feel Hall is just scratching the surface. I feel Backstrom has 100 points in him again at some point (maybe next year?)

And i feel Subban is a 50-55 point dman who played a 70 pointer on TV.

Just so you have a counter opinion .

[kovalchuk17]

its a tough call to say the least.

my opinion sways on a daily basis depending on how much you back X player. PK isnt a 70+ pt defenseman most likely, but I think hes got a good shot at 60+ which is still excellently valuable.

ultimately, im still going to try and trade for an undisputable keeper instead of this grey area situation im in now. Pengwin provided another point of view Ive overlooked, hopefully i have 'the answers' by the time the draft comes around haha

[kovalchuk17]

bump. perhaps with the guide coming out opinions will change slightly

[Puppage]

Your keepers look very similar to mine.

I would keep Malkin, Giroux, Backstrom, Hall and Subban.

I can't come up with something of substance like some of the previous posters, but I tend to shy away from band-aid boys unless they that cliched "generational talent" category, then it is worth the risk. That being said, I believe Letang falls into the band-aid boy category, and since you have a similar fantasy talent in PK Subban, I would take the safer player in Subban.