Forecast a Draft (REP)

[Pengwin7]

I help one of my buddies with his fantasy football draft.
***This is a long thread, so big REP to anybody that tries this "mock draft"***

He's in a league with heavy weight to QB scoring (see forecasted points below, QB get 6pts for TD... and that makes their points very high).

Teams get to KEEP 3, as long as the players were drafted AFTER the first two rounds.
This means that the top 24 players (12 teams x 2 rounds) are typically thrown back into the draft each year.

My buddy has the following:
#2 pick (Round 1: 2/12)
#23 pick (Round 2: 11/12)
#26 pick (Round 3: 2/12)

If anybody has a lot of time, I'd love to see a forecast of the upcoming draft.
Roster positions: 1QB/1RB/3WR/1TE/+1 FLEX(non-QB)/1K/1DEF

Draft Order (Protected: 3WR, 9RB, 18WR, 5TE, 1DEF):
1. Team1 (M.Bush-RB, Sproles-RB, T.Gonz-TE):
2. Team2 (Stafford-QB, Forte-RB, Celek-TE):
3. Team3 (Welker-WR, Graham-TE, 49ers-DEF):
4. Team4 (Gore-RB, Mathews-RB, A.Hern-TE):
5. Team5 (Wallace-WR, HeyBey-WR, S.Smith-WR):
6. Team6 (Harvin-WR, Boldin-WR, Breaston-WR):
7. Team7 (F.Jackson-RB, Bowe-WR, V.Cruz-WR):
8. Team8 (M.Lynch-RB, D.Jackson-WR, J.Jones-WR):
9. Team9 (Newton-QB, Nelson-WR, Austin-WR):
10. Team10 (Nicks-WR, Green-WR, Gronk-TE):
11. Team11 (Romo-QB, Bradshaw-RB, Murray-RB):
12. Team12 (D.Thomas-WR, Colston-WR, Maclin-WR):

Here are the top available players (with projected points), so "draft them":
*Down (round 1)
*Up (round 2)
*Down (round 3, but only do the first two)

Here are the top 30 guys available, project the first 26 picks using the teams above.
QB: Rodgers, Aaron: 500
QB: Brady, Tom: 484.8
QB: Brees, Drew: 456.8
...
QB: Manning, Eli: 384.6
QB: Ryan, Matt: 384.2
QB: Vick, Mike: 382.2
QB: Rivers, Philip: 379.8
QB: Manning, Peyton: 371
QB: Griffin III, Robert: 352.6

RB: Foster, Arian: 289.2
RB: Rice, Ray: 280.4
RB: McCoy, Lesean: 269
...
RB: Johnson, Chris: 241.7
RB: McFadden, Darren: 230.9
RB: Jones-Drew, Maurice: 205.6
RB: Richardson, Trent: 201.9
RB: Jackson, Steven: 201.2
RB: Charles, Jamaal: 192.8
RB: Peterson, Adrian: 188.8

WR: Johnson, Calvin: 263.1
WR: Fitzgerald, Larry: 232.3
WR: Johnson, Andre: 222.2
WR: Jennings, Greg: 213.9
WR: White, Roddy: 211.7
WR: Marshall, Brandon: 204.2
...
WR: Bryant, Dez: 189.8
WR: Johnson, Steve: 177.9
WR: Lloyd, Brandon: 174.2

TE: Gates, Antonio: 162.8
TE: Witten, Jason: 157.7


So, that's it.
Who should my buddy take in Round 1/2/3?

Right now, we're thinking:
Round 1 (2): Calvin Johnson (WR). If he's taken #1, I'm thinking my buddy should go with Arian Foster (RB) for his FLEX spot.
Round 2 (23): Brandon Marshall (WR). My buddy is a HUGE Bears fan, likes the Lions too.
Round 3 (26): Another WR - or a RB.

[One87]

I help one of my buddies with his fantasy football draft.
***This is a long thread, so big REP to anybody that tries this "mock draft"***

He's in a league with heavy weight to QB scoring (see forecasted points below, QB get 6pts for TD... and that makes their points very high).

Teams get to KEEP 3, as long as the players were drafted AFTER the first two rounds.
This means that the top 24 players (12 teams x 2 rounds) are typically thrown back into the draft each year.

My buddy has the following:
#2 pick (Round 1: 2/12)
#23 pick (Round 2: 11/12)
#26 pick (Round 3: 2/12)

If anybody has a lot of time, I'd love to see a forecast of the upcoming draft.
Roster positions: 1QB/1RB/3WR/1TE/+1 FLEX(non-QB)/1K/1DEF

Draft Order (Protected: 3WR, 9RB, 18WR, 5TE, 1DEF):
1. Team1 (M.Bush-RB, Sproles-RB, T.Gonz-TE):
2. Team2 (Stafford-QB, Forte-RB, Celek-TE):
3. Team3 (Welker-WR, Graham-TE, 49ers-DEF):
4. Team4 (Gore-RB, Mathews-RB, A.Hern-TE):
5. Team5 (Wallace-WR, HeyBey-WR, S.Smith-WR):
6. Team6 (Harvin-WR, Boldin-WR, Breaston-WR):
7. Team7 (F.Jackson-RB, Bowe-WR, V.Cruz-WR):
8. Team8 (M.Lynch-RB, D.Jackson-WR, J.Jones-WR):
9. Team9 (Newton-QB, Nelson-WR, Austin-WR):
10. Team10 (Nicks-WR, Green-WR, Gronk-TE):
11. Team11 (Romo-QB, Bradshaw-RB, Murray-RB):
12. Team12 (D.Thomas-WR, Colston-WR, Maclin-WR):

Here are the top available players (with projected points), so "draft them":
*Down (round 1)
*Up (round 2)
*Down (round 3, but only do the first two)

Here are the top 30 guys available, project the first 26 picks using the teams above.
QB: Rodgers, Aaron: 500
QB: Brady, Tom: 484.8
QB: Brees, Drew: 456.8
...
QB: Manning, Eli: 384.6
QB: Ryan, Matt: 384.2
QB: Vick, Mike: 382.2
QB: Rivers, Philip: 379.8
QB: Manning, Peyton: 371
QB: Griffin III, Robert: 352.6

RB: Foster, Arian: 289.2
RB: Rice, Ray: 280.4
RB: McCoy, Lesean: 269
...
RB: Johnson, Chris: 241.7
RB: McFadden, Darren: 230.9
RB: Jones-Drew, Maurice: 205.6
RB: Richardson, Trent: 201.9
RB: Jackson, Steven: 201.2
RB: Charles, Jamaal: 192.8
RB: Peterson, Adrian: 188.8

WR: Johnson, Calvin: 263.1
WR: Fitzgerald, Larry: 232.3
WR: Johnson, Andre: 222.2
WR: Jennings, Greg: 213.9
WR: White, Roddy: 211.7
WR: Marshall, Brandon: 204.2
...
WR: Bryant, Dez: 189.8
WR: Johnson, Steve: 177.9
WR: Lloyd, Brandon: 174.2

TE: Gates, Antonio: 162.8
TE: Witten, Jason: 157.7


So, that's it.
Who should my buddy take in Round 1/2/3?

Right now, we're thinking:
Round 1 (2): Calvin Johnson (WR). If he's taken #1, I'm thinking my buddy should go with Arian Foster (RB) for his FLEX spot.
Round 2 (23): Brandon Marshall (WR). My buddy is a HUGE Bears fan, likes the Lions too.
Round 3 (26): Another WR - or a RB.

Hey Pengwin, I can't do every team because i'm using my phone. However, there is no doubt in my mind that your friend should take Arian Foster with his first pick:

1. Yes, CJ is tempting here, but WR is a very deep position. You'll find a better quality WR later in the draft than you will a RB.
2. Foster will put up comparable, if not better numbers than Johnson, so you lose nothing in value. Personally, I think he outproduces Calvin.
3. You need Forte insirance because Bush is slated to vulture TDs as the GL back. I can easily see long bombs to Marshall and Forte exiting the game for Bush in the redzone and your buddy F bombing the T.V., kicking himself for passing on Foster. Worst case scenario, say Forte does get some GL carries, I wouldn't bank on it, though, your chances of having a dominant fantasy team goes up when you have two elite backs.
4. A ton of teams below have WRs already. Passing on one here means a quality WR is available in rd 2. Several teams below are oraying Foster drops, don't let him.


Rd 2, i'd go after a WR. If Marshall is there, scoop him. The goal is to get a number 1 WR. This should be attainable, looking at other team's rosters, which have a ton of WRs. If Marshall is not available, I have the following wides fitting the criteria CLEAR CUT #1 studs on their team that I feel will be very productive:

1. Calvin Johnson - likely gone by your pick
2. Brandon Marshall - think he outproduces Fitz
3. Andre Johnson - If not for past injuries, he'd be ahead of Marshall. Since Hou's offense is more explosive than Az's, I slot him ahead of Fitz.
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Justin Blackmon

If any of the above names slip to round 3, go for it. If they don't some targets... Granted some may be gone by now (in no order):

1. Jamaal Charles - Former top 5 fantasy player who is healthy
2. Doug Martin

Greg Jennings
Dez Bryant
Antonio Brown
Vincent Brown (SD)- Injured until week 8, but worth snagging as a last pick.

Sleepers:

Donald Brown
Rashad Jennings (MoJo hold out makes him the starter)
Jacquizz Rodgers - Michael Turner's load lessening. One of those guys that will be a playoff hero to help you in the playoffs when your starters are out.

[Spec7ral]

1. Rodgers
2.Johnson
3.Brady
4.Brees ( I would not personally do this, but the Rodgers/Brady combo will scare him into a QB)
5.McCoy
6.Foster
7.Rice
8.Ryan
9.CJ2K
10.Richardson (the QB talent right now is fairly similar, so grab the non injury risk non holdout)
11.AJ
12.Run DMC
12.Vick
11.Eli
10.RG3 (Romo means I would roll dice if I was owner)
9.MJD
8.Peterson
7.Rivers
6.Peyton (I'd be pissed and be drafting another QB next rnd)
5.Chaarles
4.Jennings
3.Jackson (or another RB if I was him)
2.Roddy White
1.Fitzy
1.RB
2.RB

That's a quick run-through, but, 20/20 hindsight, with the weighting of QB points, I might skip over CJ and try to find some WR value later... Stafford is injury prone, Forte was injured last season (and Bush was already vultuirng in week 2 of preseason) and Celek is not the best TE in the league.

IF you can get someone of Roddy White's calibre that late (and I think you might) then I might exchange Johnson for on of the big 3 RBs ( I like McCoy best as of today FWIW, but that will probably change by next week) or Brady.

Being able to mix and match with Brady and Stafford would be nice, and it would make you the immediate trade sweetheart of any owner that lost a QB to injury. It would suck all the QB picks up one draft spot, so instead of owners going "Yes, I got a decent QB" the last two guys (owners 7 and 6) could be targeted for either package trade deals.

It would be a gamble taking another QB, but it could pay off. One of Stafford or Brady would probably be traded for a top WR or RB before the first snap of the season. Or you can just draft a top WR or RB right there and save yourself the trouble. It would totally depend on the willingness to make trades in your league. SOme leagues have lots, other have next to none.

Essentially it's the same info One gave you, with a quick mock. IF it was me I would take CJ because of the distance between him and the rest of the WRs in the league in terms of talent and situation. The one bad thing would be if Detroit has a subpar passing game, you lost your week for sure.

HOpe this helps a bit.

[Pengwin7]

1. Rodgers
2.Johnson
3.Brady
...
4.Jennings
3.Jackson (or another RB if I was him)
2.Roddy White
1.Fitzy
1.RB
2.RB

IF you can get someone of Roddy White's calibre that late (and I think you might) then I might exchange Johnson for on of the big 3 RBs ( I like McCoy best as of today FWIW, but that will probably change by next week) or Brady.

It would be a gamble taking another QB, but it could pay off. One of Stafford or Brady would probably be traded for a top WR or RB before the first snap of the season. ...It would totally depend on the willingness to make trades in your league.

IF it was me I would take CJ because of the distance between him and the rest of the WRs in the league in terms of talent and situation.

Hope this helps a bit.

A bit... it helps a LOT.
Thanks (REP coming your way). GREAT MOCK!

Taking Megatron at #2 will be a slam dunk if he's there.
My buddy loves having the tandem, and obviously it's a go-big or go-home sort of risk.

Interesting that you like McCoy over A.Foster... hmm, didn't think that was possible.

Trading is very strange in this league. Since NOBODY taken in the top two rounds can be kept, then there is no keeper value in those draft picks. A typical trade is a top RB/WR being "rent/traded" to a contender in return for a KEEPER for the non-contender (Keeper being: 3rd round or later drafted player).

So, essentially - my buddy is going to need to take a rock at his 2nd round pick and a future keeper (to replace Celek) at his 3rd round pick.

It will be great if one of Fitzy/D.Jax/Roddy falls to him.
Which player would you like best as a KEEPER - if they are there in the 3rd round?

Thanks for the help!

[Spec7ral]

Keeper thoughts:

I'd be looking to take a starting WR or RB with at least one season of productivity and no big injury concerns (so many names pop up that aren't taken, right

WR: Vincent Jackson, if gone then Antonio Brown then Eric Decker

RB: Doug Martin (this could be the best pick of all for you here), maybe SHonn Greene but I'm not sure he ever becomes that marquee guy.

I'd probably roll Martin, especially if you can lock up a CJ/ one of Roddy/Ftiz/DJax

[Spec7ral]

I guess Luck should also enter the conversation with the weighting of your QB points. But that's pretty early for essentially kissing a draft pick goodbye for this season.

[Pengwin7]

We won't draft a 2nd QB.
It's simply too many points left on the bench in a league where you can only start 1 QB.