[Report] Canadiens offer to Subban

[ross10019]

+1

5 years $20 million would by my offer. I don't think he will get Tyler Myers, let alone Drew Doughty or Erik Karlsson money.

Tyler Myers is at $5.5M but he signed for 7 years. If Subban commits to 7 years I don't think he's that far from that number - if we are saying that around $4M for 5 years is reasonable, then the extra 2 years you have to think he should be by that point commanding Doughty type money if he progresses as he should, so say $7M per year. That would mean a total of $34M for 7 years, or close to $5M, which is only $0.5M less than Myers.

I would be absolutely fine committing to Subban for the same contract Myers has, especially when you take into account the higher taxes here compared to Buffalo - Subban is EASILY as valuable as Myers, and I would say even more valuable given his higher offensive upside. The only caveat is that if he truly is a problem in the locker room, then you're locking in that problem for 7 years, but if that's the case it's a major issue that has to be addressed probably via the trade route.

Let's put it this way, do you think a Holmgren, having thrown a 14 year - $110M contract at Weber, would hesitate to offer sheet Subban at 7 years for $5.5M? I'm sure there are other barriers that would get in the way of an offer sheet, they don't happen very often for a reason, but I doubt this term/amount would be the reason preventing a rival GM from pulling the trigger.

[Big Ev]

Don't know what Bergevin's up to here, but I don't like it all that much. I think with Subban it's all or nothing, either you buy into what he can become (and to some extent what he already is) and you give him the giant Price-like contract, or you trade him now for major value, you don't do some small 2-year thing. This is a future (some would say current) superstar minute-munching all-around defenseman we're talking about here, our version of Doughty or Pietrangelo. How can he not command the same type of deal that say EJ or JJ got at the same age?

I think you're expecting too much if you think that's what he will become. He's a good d-man but I can't see him being on a superstar, Pietrangelo/Karlsson/Doughty level. He does deserve something along the lines of what Jack Johnson got though.

[ross10019]

I think you're expecting too much if you think that's what he will become. He's a good d-man but I can't see him being on a superstar, Pietrangelo/Karlsson/Doughty level. He does deserve something along the lines of what Jack Johnson got though.

I certainly could be wrong, but having watched him closely over the past few years and also having had the opportunity to see the big young guns you mentioned as well as guys like EJ, JJ, etc., I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll be closer to the big guns than to guys like JJ (although JJ has the tools to get to that conversation as well if he can improve sufficiently).

This guy is, to borrow the baseball expression, a "5-tool" stud dman, he played gigantic minutes last year, at the tender age of 22, and has the ability to excel at both ends of the ice, plus he's a big hitter and will drop the gloves, basically a player who combines superb offensive skill with an elevated "grit" factor (no comparison there with the young studs you mentioned, they do not have that dimension save perhaps for Doughty to some extent, plus Subban's a real pest which has to be mostly considered an asset). And to top it all off, he brings an "excitement' factor that is extremely rare in this league, he's "generational" in that regard - as a Habs fan, the last time anyone came close to him in terms of generating excitement when he's on the ice was Alex Kovalev, and I think Kovi doesn't even come close, you have to go back to the great Guy Lafleur to have a real comparision point with Subban, it's that crazy. And this would be the case whether he was in Montreal or in Philly or anywhere else, it's just he kind of player he is, when he gets the puck he's one of those guys who you just wait with anticipation to see what he'll do next.

All of this means something in the grand scheme of things, it's why I think, if he is able to mature as a person and player a little and rein in, to some extent, the cockiness, he could be the best defenseman in the league in his late 20s and in that sense compete year in year out with the Doughty's and Pietrangelo's for the Norris.

I think people underestimate Subban at their peril. People don't like him (especially rival team fans) because he is cocky and grating, that tends to fuel some negative attitudes towards his status / ability (in essence, many people want him to fail). But if you look at him objectively, he is a unique, potentially generational defenseman in this league.

The one area he has to improve is taking stupid minor penalties, and to some extent tightening up in his own end, to that extent he's behind a guy like Doughty and Pietrangelo thus far.

[Big Ev]

I certainly could be wrong, but having watched him closely over the past few years and also having had the opportunity to see the big young guns you mentioned as well as guys like EJ, JJ, etc., I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll be closer to the big guns than to guys like JJ (although JJ has the tools to get to that conversation as well if he can improve sufficiently).

This guy is, to borrow the baseball expression, a "5-tool" stud dman, he played gigantic minutes last year, at the tender age of 22, and has the ability to excel at both ends of the ice, plus he's a big hitter and will drop the gloves, basically a player who combines superb offensive skill with an elevated "grit" factor (no comparison there with the young studs you mentioned, they do not have that dimension save perhaps for Doughty to some extent, plus Subban's a real pest which has to be mostly considered an asset). And to top it all off, he brings an "excitement' factor that is extremely rare in this league, he's "generational" in that regard - as a Habs fan, the last time anyone came close to him in terms of generating excitement when he's on the ice was Alex Kovalev, and I think Kovi doesn't even come close, you have to go back to the great Guy Lafleur to have a real comparision point with Subban, it's that crazy. And this would be the case whether he was in Montreal or in Philly or anywhere else, it's just he kind of player he is, when he gets the puck he's one of those guys who you just wait with anticipation to see what he'll do next.

All of this means something in the grand scheme of things, it's why I think, if he is able to mature as a person and player a little and rein in, to some extent, the cockiness, he could be the best defenseman in the league in his late 20s and in that sense compete year in year out with the Doughty's and Pietrangelo's for the Norris.

I think people underestimate Subban at their peril. People don't like him (especially rival team fans) because he is cocky and grating, that tends to fuel some negative attitudes towards his status / ability (in essence, many people want him to fail). But if you look at him objectively, he is a unique, potentially generational defenseman in this league.

The one area he has to improve is taking stupid minor penalties, and to some extent tightening up in his own end, to that extent he's behind a guy like Doughty and Pietrangelo thus far.

I think people looking at him objectively will not come to this conclusion, at all. If the Habs felt that, they would try to lock him up long term while they can do it cheaply, not for only 2 seasons.

People may underestimate him, but I think your evaluation of him is over the top with bias involved (understandable - I've been there a lot of times ). I'm only looking out for Habs fans to say that they will most likely be disappointed if they're expecting him to be a generational defenseman who is the best in the league in his late 20's. I've watched him closely as well and he is a good defenseman, but his maturity and dumb penalties will probably never improve due to his personality. He is who he is. That will hinder his game, and even if that does improve, I don't think he is up there with the other big d-men. Just my take.

[Pengwin7]

Pretty low offer.
I'd value Subban at $7m/2yr = $3.5m per year.

No more, kid is still a defensive liability.

[ross10019]

I think people looking at him objectively will not come to this conclusion, at all. If the Habs felt that, they would try to lock him up long term while they can do it cheaply, not for only 2 seasons.

People may underestimate him, but I think your evaluation of him is over the top with bias involved (understandable - I've been there a lot of times ). I'm only looking out for Habs fans to say that they will most likely be disappointed if they're expecting him to be a generational defenseman who is the best in the league in his late 20's. I've watched him closely as well and he is a good defenseman, but his maturity and dumb penalties will probably never improve due to his personality. He is who he is. That will hinder his game, and even if that does improve, I don't think he is up there with the other big d-men. Just my take.

Certainly respect your opinion, as much as I differ. One point though, there is no "bias involved", my conclusion is based on an objective analysis having watched him closely. If Subban was playing for Ottawa, or Philly, or Vancouver, and I had had a similar opportunity to watch him closely, I would reach the same conclusion. I love the player and love the fact that he is with the Habs, but it's not the Habs fan in me that is resulting in this (admittedly optimistic) assessment of what he will become.

[SeaDawg]

As an unbiased observer (not a Montreal fan), I think Subban can do things that not many others in the league can do. He is one of the most skilled dmen in the league. He is tough, an exceptional skater, incredibly agile and creative, and he has a heck of a shot.

I don't have a problem with his attitude either. There have been A LOT of very cocky players in the NHL who have had extremely successful careers. I think part of Subban's issue is that he is so young that many of the old-timers (players and media) feel he doesn't have the right to be cocky this early in his career.

All that said, the one thing that really separates him from the likes of Doughty, Pietrangelo, and Karlsson* is that he is more of a defensive liability. In time, with the right coach, enough patience, and a solid defensive partner, Subban has the potential to be a top 10 dman in the league, and when it comes to these RFA contracts, more often than not you are paying for potential. Pay a bit more now to potentially save quite a bit later.

*Some say that Karlsson is a defensive liability also (and they may have a bit of a point, though I disagree), but he is so good offensively that any apparent defensive liablities are of no real concern. I believe, though not as good as Karlsson, the same can almost be said for Subban.

[ross10019]

As an unbiased observer (not a Montreal fan), I think Subban can do things that not many others in the league can do. He is one of the most skilled dmen in the league. He is tough, an exceptional skater, incredibly agile and creative, and he has a heck of a shot.

I don't have a problem with his attitude either. There have been A LOT of very cocky players in the NHL who have had extremely successful careers. I think part of Subban's issue is that he is so young that many of the old-timers (players and media) feel he doesn't have the right to be cocky this early in his career.

All that said, the one thing that really separates him from the likes of Doughty, Pietrangelo, and Karlsson* is that he is more of a defensive liability. In time, with the right coach, enough patience, and a solid defensive partner, Subban has the potential to be a top 10 dman in the league, and when it comes to these RFA contracts, more often than not you are paying for potential. Pay a bit more now to potentially save quite a bit later.

*Some say that Karlsson is a defensive liability also (and they may have a bit of a point, though I disagree), but he is so good offensively that any apparent defensive liablities are of no real concern. I believe, though not as good as Karlsson, the same can almost be said for Subban.

Yes, he definitely has to work on the defensive side of things, but he has so much strength and speed that even if he doesn't excel at other things (body positiioning, stick work) he can still be effective. In that way Karlsson is ahead of him, he's already becoming a very adapt defenseman by virtue of positioning, stickwork, etc., which he has to do to make up for his relative lack of size and strength. They should both ultimately be pretty solid (or at least not liabllities) defensively but relying on different means to get there.

[SeaDawg]

Yes, he definitely has to work on the defensive side of things, but he has so much strength and speed that even if he doesn't excel at other things (body positiioning, stick work) he can still be effective. In that way Karlsson is ahead of him, he's already becoming a very adapt defenseman by virtue of positioning, stickwork, etc., which he has to do to make up for his relative lack of size and strength. They should both ultimately be pretty solid (or at least not liabllities) defensively but relying on different means to get there.

exactly...think Streit, Visnovsky, Rafalski, etc. Guys that weren't overly big or physical, but more than made up for it with good positioning and stick work, along with exceptional offensive abilities, making them at various points in their careers top 10 dmen in the league. I fully believe Subban can be like that someday also.

[LeTrefle]

I certainly could be wrong, but having watched him closely over the past few years and also having had the opportunity to see the big young guns you mentioned as well as guys like EJ, JJ, etc., I think it's a pretty good bet that he'll be closer to the big guns than to guys like JJ (although JJ has the tools to get to that conversation as well if he can improve sufficiently).

This guy is, to borrow the baseball expression, a "5-tool" stud dman, he played gigantic minutes last year, at the tender age of 22, and has the ability to excel at both ends of the ice, plus he's a big hitter and will drop the gloves, basically a player who combines superb offensive skill with an elevated "grit" factor (no comparison there with the young studs you mentioned, they do not have that dimension save perhaps for Doughty to some extent, plus Subban's a real pest which has to be mostly considered an asset). And to top it all off, he brings an "excitement' factor that is extremely rare in this league, he's "generational" in that regard - as a Habs fan, the last time anyone came close to him in terms of generating excitement when he's on the ice was Alex Kovalev, and I think Kovi doesn't even come close, you have to go back to the great Guy Lafleur to have a real comparision point with Subban, it's that crazy. And this would be the case whether he was in Montreal or in Philly or anywhere else, it's just he kind of player he is, when he gets the puck he's one of those guys who you just wait with anticipation to see what he'll do next.

All of this means something in the grand scheme of things, it's why I think, if he is able to mature as a person and player a little and rein in, to some extent, the cockiness, he could be the best defenseman in the league in his late 20s and in that sense compete year in year out with the Doughty's and Pietrangelo's for the Norris.

I think people underestimate Subban at their peril. People don't like him (especially rival team fans) because he is cocky and grating, that tends to fuel some negative attitudes towards his status / ability (in essence, many people want him to fail). But if you look at him objectively, he is a unique, potentially generational defenseman in this league.

The one area he has to improve is taking stupid minor penalties, and to some extent tightening up in his own end, to that extent he's behind a guy like Doughty and Pietrangelo thus far.

Absolutely agree with all this.

[ericdaoust]

Subban played some TOUGH minutes last year. Aside from Josh Gorges, who do you throw out there against the other team's top line? Hal Gill was too damn slow to be useful anywhere except when a man short. You wouldn't throw Kaberle, Weber or Diaz out there before Subban. Emelin is a great hitter but made a ton of mistakes himself even with a much lesser work load.

So essentially you have a guy that was forced into a tough role out of necessity. The fantasy guide has a nice breakdown of this in the advanced stats section.

[Sportfreunde]

I disagree that Doughty/Karlsson/Pietrangelo are better defensively than Subban by a significant amount. I would actually say that Subban in the 2nd half of last season was better defensively (and offensively) than Doughty but Doughty was good in the playoffs yet Doughty was being paid 7.5 M. With these young dmen, those spells come and go and you have to look more at how they look at their best and if they can do show it on a fairly regular basis (he isn't completely consistent but he has tonnes of great games). By that measure, someone like Tyler Myers who at his best is a beast is easily worth the 5.5 M salary he's gonna get next yr so I don't see why the Habs would hesitate to offer Subban say 5 M over the same term as Myers.

They should be doing their best to make it long-term and if they can get it to long term then no one would call 5 M an overpayment because it's not a dangerous cap hit and might even prove to be a bargain within a few yrs time. Don't offer him 6 or 7 but I doubt he's asking for that.