Max Pacioretty Ceiling???

[tiantonio]

Just looking for some opinions.

I am close to locking Max Pac in as one of the picks in my upcoming draft for a couple reasons:

1. He is one of the very few guys available that I think can come close to or top his scoring last season.
2. At 23-24 yrs old, he is much younger than similar scorers available such as Michalek, Cole, Pominville, or Callahan.
3. I am snagging Galchenyuk as well so it would give me a pair of teammates.
4. He was 10th in the league in shots taken and was at an 11% shooting pct. Another point better and he would be pushing for 40. Another point less and he would be under 30. I am hoping for a slight uptick.

I am wonderingi if anyone sees him making another leap or has he hit the level we hope he will maintain? Does anyone expect a step back for some reason?

I would be passing on Mathew Dumba to take Pacioretty and scoring D-Men are gold in my league. Dumba could be Phaneuf/Subban in a couple of seasons but I think I could use a guy giving me 30 goals over those next couple of seasons more. I dont like drafting for potential trade value down the road but Dumba may be too good to ignore. Someone sell me something here.

[ericdaoust]

Proven over potential. Pacioretty is one of the best to own.

[bondon]

Yeah I'd much rather have proven Pacioretty over an unproven prospect.

[ericdaoust]

If it were a guy like Nick Foligno instead of Pac, then I would entertain the idea. But not for a 60+ point winger.

[Bnhershy]

Paches in my mind can hit 35 goals 45 assists.

I'm high on Dumba as well but as everyone has said, you take the proven guy and that's Pacio for sure. Best available

[Call of Doughty]

Definitely worth a pickup on your part. See him as a 40-40 guy. Hasn't peaked yet either....I like Patches a lot.

[maya has the knife]

Call me crazy, but I'd take Callahan over Pacioretty anyday. Yeah, Max will outpoint him but Callahan's peripherals are sick. If your league counts hits, blocks, etc I think you have to go with him. If not, disregard everything I've said and go with Max.

[dongjohnson]

Paches in my mind can hit 35 goals 45 assists.

I'm high on Dumba as well but as everyone has said, you take the proven guy and that's Pacio for sure. Best available

I agree on that. About 35-38 goals and 80-83 pts max for Max.

[newfcollins]

I'll add a different voice here. I think what we've seen out of Max Pac this past season will probably be the peak for him, for several reasons:

1) He was helped by a hot teammate. I can't see Cole having another career year. Less goals for Cole means less points for Max (if they continue to be line mates).

2) Every thing had to go right for him last year. Gomez sucking, Gionta getting injured, Pleks having an off year, Cole having a career year, the team being really bad in the standings, etc. This led to more TOI and more PP time. If things start going well for other lines, that will eat into Max's time. I can't see all those factors happening again to allow Max to benefit as much as he did.

3) Teams will start to figure out how to slow Max and his line down.

4) Max isn't the greatest defensively. If the Habs have leads late in the game, he won't see the ice as much in the third period as opposed to last year, when they were losing or tied late pretty often.

[ericdaoust]

I'll add a different voice here. I think what we've seen out of Max Pac this past season will probably be the peak for him, for several reasons:

1) He was helped by a hot teammate. I can't see Cole having another career year. Less goals for Cole means less points for Max (if they continue to be line mates).

2) Every thing had to go right for him last year. Gomez sucking, Gionta getting injured, Pleks having an off year, Cole having a career year, the team being really bad in the standings, etc. This led to more TOI and more PP time. If things start going well for other lines, that will eat into Max's time. I can't see all those factors happening again to allow Max to benefit as much as he did.

3) Teams will start to figure out how to slow Max and his line down.

4) Max isn't the greatest defensively. If the Habs have leads late in the game, he won't see the ice as much in the third period as opposed to last year, when they were losing or tied late pretty often.

1) You never once mentioned Desharnais in your post. He has room to grow as well. Or Plekanec could end up as Pacioretty's centerman. Long-term, there's a guy called Galchenyuk in the system. I hear he's pretty good.

2) Guys like Gomez and Gionta are not threats to Max's ice time. Different class entirely.

3) Every team faces this challenge

4) He's 23. There is still room for improvement at both ends of the ice.

[newfcollins]

1) You never once mentioned Desharnais in your post. He has room to grow as well. Or Plekanec could end up as Pacioretty's centerman. Long-term, there's a guy called Galchenyuk in the system. I hear he's pretty good.

2) Guys like Gomez and Gionta are not threats to Max's ice time. Different class entirely.

3) Every team faces this challenge

4) He's 23. There is still room for improvement at both ends of the ice.

Good points. But I have to disagree.

1) You're right. Pax could have any centre. Maybe even Eller at some point. Who knows? But it doesn't change get the fact that Max's numbers were helped by a career year from Cole.
If Cole finished last season with 23 goals and 50 points, that would have meant less points for Max.

2) If Gionta has a half-decent season, he's going to eat into Max's time. Especially on the PP (where Max had only four PP goals last year). If Pleks and Gionta start the season strong, they're going to get more ice time.

3) Yes, every team faces the same challenge. Some players are good enough to get through it (some quickly, some not-so-quickly). Some players aren't. We'll have to wait to see how Max does, but it does deserve a mention.

4) Yes, there is room to grow defensively. But if the Habs are nursing a 2-1 lead late, whom is most likely to get ice time, Pleks and Gionta, or Cole and Max? Obviously, if they're losing, Max's line would get more ice time. But if the Habs are a better team this year, that means more late game leads.

[ericdaoust]

Good points. But I have to disagree.

1) You're right. Pax could have any centre. Maybe even Eller at some point. Who knows? But it doesn't change get the fact that Max's numbers were helped by a career year from Cole.
If Cole finished last season with 23 goals and 50 points, that would have meant less points for Max.

2) If Gionta has a half-decent season, he's going to eat into Max's time. Especially on the PP (where Max had only four PP goals last year). If Pleks and Gionta start the season strong, they're going to get more ice time.

3) Yes, every team faces the same challenge. Some players are good enough to get through it (some quickly, some not-so-quickly). Some players aren't. We'll have to wait to see how Max does, but it does deserve a mention.

4) Yes, there is room to grow defensively. But if the Habs are nursing a 2-1 lead late, whom is most likely to get ice time, Pleks and Gionta, or Cole and Max? Obviously, if they're losing, Max's line would get more ice time. But if the Habs are a better team this year, that means more late game leads.

Those are factors that could slow him down in 2012-13. I highly doubt any of this is a factor long-term.

[Richard Parker]

I think both of you guys are bringing up great points, and I tend to agree with both of you despite the fact that you're on opposing sides of the argument. For me, Max Pac is as hard to project/gauge perhaps as any player in the league right now. I could definitely see him taking a hit in production this year for many of the factors that newf mentioned. I could definitely see him putting up better numbers this year because he is still young and coming in to form. This year is going to tell us a lot about Max Pac and what the future holds for him.

[mister_mcgoo]

75 pts is where I target him landing realistically, I don't think his upside is much higher than that...that's assuming he doesn't get run into anymore stanchions by 260 lb oafs

[Luffy D Monkey]

I like Max Pac and I think he's a good player, but some of the predictions here are a little inflated IMO. 17 players in the NHL got 75+ points last season.

He would have to have a great season like last year, AND THEN SOME to reach 75+. The Habs are meh. Why would you ever start predicting 75+ for a guy who just reached a career high 65 points. Sure there's prognosticating but why not be realistic about it.

As good as they are Max and Desh are not superstars level NHL players. Max's ceiling is 75 IMO but I doubt he hits that. He could easily have 50 points next season.