Dub's take on: VOKOUN??

[holdUP]

Hey Dub,

Just wondering your thoughts on the Vokoun situation. Does he re-sign with Florida? If not, where do you think he'll end up next year (top 3)?

Thanks for your input buddy!

[the_walrus]

I'm not Dub, but I'll throw in my two cents.

Vokoun's decision will probably be based on whether or not he wants to win, and where he wants to win.

Let's look at the factors in play:
-Vokoun will command at least a $5 million ($4-4.5 million if he takes a discount to play for a better team
-This is not a good market for goaltenders. Looking at the teams without established no. 1s (or stumbling no. 1s) we have Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, Detroit, Edmonton, New Jersey, New York (Islanders), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Toronto.
-Chicago and Philadelphia are tight under the cap through next season and look to be comfortable going forward with younger developing goaltenders. Detroit just recommitted to Howard as their starter.
-Columbus has Mason (signed for 2 more years), who's been inconsistent since his Calder winning season. An unlikely option, but management might consider a change.
-New Jersey is tricky. Brodeur has clearly lost a step, and Hedberg has filled in admirably in a 30-start backup role. Should New Jersey and Brodeur part ways (unlikely), they'd be in market for a replacement.
-Colorado, Edmonton, New York, Ottawa, and Toronto are all immersed in different phases of rebuilding periods. Edmonton is in no rush to compete and still have Khabibulin the books for two more seasons. I don't see Burke breaking bank for a goaltender without giving the Remeir/Gustavsson combo a chance first. Ottawa was an option prior to going into full rebuild and acquiring Anderson (who I believe they will resign).
-Colorado and New York have the cap space to pay Vokoun's price and an opening in the starter role (DiPietro is not a starter, obviously). Colorado was exposed this season for leaning on hot goaltending in order to be competitive. Vokoun is no stranger to carrying a team, but the offence in front of him in Colorado would be a vast improvement over his current situation. As for New York, that'd be a lateral movement and I don't see Vokoun wanting to uproot his family to go to a similarly destitute team.
-This leaves Tampa Bay, Vokoun (and Vokoun owners) most viable option. An up and coming team and potential cup contender in the near future. Vokoun has defined himself as a goaltender who shines when taking in a lot of shots, which fits with Tampa Bay's weak defence. They have the cap space already, in addition to Smith and Roloson coming off the books at the end of the season (a combined $5 million). Yzerman is said to be high on prospect Cedric Desjardins, so adding Vokoun and promoting Desjardins makes good sense short-term (winning) and long-term (mentoring Desjardins). Tampa also means staying in Florida.
-Lastly, the KHL. Nabokov's defection last season showed how the KHL can be a viable option for players who are not finding the money they want in the NHL. With cap crunches and teams increasingly willing to take chances on young unproven goaltenders or diminishing veterans willing to take a pay cut (of which neither describe Vokoun) he may find it difficult to find work at anything close to his asking price. Still, Nabokov was a unique situation to begin with...

Soooooooooo......all of this to say, here's where I'd place my bets for Vokoun:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Florida
3. Colorado
4. KHL
5. Edmonton

[duballstar014]

Hey guys,

Sorry for the delayed response here. Walrus, great job breaking it down!

Usually I leave the goalie analysis to Goldman, but I'll share some thoughts. Vokoun is a quality goaltender who is 34 years old. He only has a few years left before he starts getting boxed out by younger goalies and likely has to mentor a youngster. Personally, I think he'll get a 2 year deal, but he's going to have a hard time finding a team willing to pay him $4-4.5 which is what I think he's worth in the current market. You see goalies like Jon Quick signing for less than $2M a season and Antti Niemi getting $3.8. With Vokoun's age, I honestly think $4-4.5 is a reasonable number for 2 years, maybe 3.

The problem is that he has Craig Anderson competing for a contract and he has up and coming goalies trying to prove they can make it in the show too. The last thing that hurts him is he's playing for a Panthers team on the rebuild that doesn't need an aging goalie when they're ready to hand the starting job to Markstrom.

Outside of fzusher, who would have thought that Niemi would be in SJ last year? I honestly don't want to predict who I think Vokoun will go to because it's going to be chaos around the summer and he could go anywhere. I don't think he'll go to the KHL though as I think he'd rather swallow his pride and sign a contract here, similar to what Niemi did with SJ.

I will, however, give a couple teams that I think might be interested in Vokoun come July 1:

Atlanta: Despite having Pavelec, he did have that collapse early in the season and when doctors couldn't find out exactly what happened, health should be a scare down the road. The Leafs have the same with Gustavsson and it never hurts to have insurance.

Colorado: I think Elliott will bounce back and be a solid goaltender for this team, but if the Avs finish the season and look at Elliott and Budaj, someone in the press box might be pointing a finger at Vokoun as a target.

Dallas: One injury to Lehtonen and the door is wide, frickin open.

NY Islanders: They'd be smart to invest in Vokoun if the price dropped, but if DiPietro is skating in the summer, Vokoun may not be interested.

Ottawa: If Anderson walks...

TB: As mentioned above, a definite possibility. Will depend on what Stevie Y ultimately wants though. I don't know if they want to give Tokarski a shot and sign Roloson to a one-year deal. That could work out just as well .

[holdUP]

thanks dub, and walrus!

Yeah I normally talk to Justin about goaltending stuff too, but he's more goaltender specific, and tries to stay away from guessing who will be traded/signing where haha.
I guess my issue is trying to put a value on him. The way I see it, by having him, his numbers won't get WORSE than they are now. I mean, he can't play for any team WORSE than Florida, can he? But if he ends up on a team like Tampa, his value could be way higher

[duballstar014]

thanks dub, and walrus!

Yeah I normally talk to Justin about goaltending stuff too, but he's more goaltender specific, and tries to stay away from guessing who will be traded/signing where haha.
I guess my issue is trying to put a value on him. The way I see it, by having him, his numbers won't get WORSE than they are now. I mean, he can't play for any team WORSE than Florida, can he? But if he ends up on a team like Tampa, his value could be way higher

He's a solid goalie, that's for sure, but he's getting up there in years and GMs are finding it easier and easier to give critical positions (like goalie) to younger, inexpensive players. It's cheaper and lowers the injury risk, not to mention there is a huge influx of young talent these days at every position. I find that it's becoming easier to break into the league these days, but harder to stay in.

[Pengwin7]

Vokoun's landing spot is/was my #1 favourite topic of this season.
I drafted him in two keeper leagues anticipating a trade at the deadline... but obviously Tallon didn't get the value he wanted.

The guy is 34 years old and I'm not sure he's ever been to the 2nd round of the playoffs.
He's earned some solid cash, so if there is one sure bet I'd make, it is this:
Vokoun will sign with a contender, even if it a salary cut (Salary Cut = $3m/yr)

Many of the teams stated above are not contenders... and I disagree he'll end up in most of those locations.

Tampa Bay would have made the most sense at this year's trade deadline - but TB had already brought in Roloson and it would have looked like a wasteful move by Y had they acquired Vokoun too. In the offseason TB still has to offer a contract of about $8m/year to Stamkos. Purcell is RFA, Gagne is UFA. I think they have less money then people realize. I would, though, still make them my favourites to sign Vokoun.

A couple options that don't seem immediately evident:

2. Washington. They have a ton of cap space coming off the books. Old vets like Arnott, Sturm, Knuble, Hannan are assured to not be offered the contracts they currently have. Tallon wants to re-build with youth and WAS has three solid young goalie options. Varlamov might fit with FLA's Russians Kulikov & Dadinov. Neuvirth has a very attractive two-year extension. Holtby is also an attractive youngster. If WAS's goaltending fails them to not get out of the first round... you can bet the fans will be screaming to GMGM for a goalie upgrade. I thought that a deal with WAS might happen at the deadline actually - but it didn't.

3. Detroit. If Lidstrom retires, Detroit opens up an extra $6.7m in cap space. So they have signed Howard at $2m for the next two years. Who cares? That's not a ridiculous amount to have as a back-up if Detroit feels that Howard (whose SV% and GAA are not great) are holding them from being a contender.

3. Philadelphia. Yes - they are squeezed to the max with cap space. But it doesn't take much more than for Holmer to realize that Bob & Bouch aren't the answer and perhaps he's willing to move Versteeg & JVR (~$4.6m in cap space) for picks & spend the cap space on a bonafide #1 goaltender. After all, Vokoun is the ONLY goalie in the NHL to post a .919 SV% or better for the last five straight seasons.

That's my take - but hey, I own him.
(ps. Dub, sorry to crash your space... but I love the topics in your forums areas!)