The difference between Erik Johnson and Ryan Suter

[fungchen3]

Man he needs to get out of NSH though

This is the tricky part brother. I own Ellis and two GMs are extremly high on him (one owns EJ and the other Suter). This is why I am engaging in these comparisons - to see if a deal is really worth exploring. Especially since I will have to give up Ellis + some other good assets to land one of these guys. The price tag for E.Johnson is more than Suter, I can tell you that much.

The part that I am struggling with here is the realistic upside of a kid like Ellis in the NHL. Like we both have said, Ellis has world class offensive skill, but he is still a prospect. So the question begs: Will Ellis make it to the bigs, and how much impact will he make?

My personal opinion is, Ellis is simply too good to not make it to the show. Especially how the game is being played now, transition Dmen who can efficiently run a PP are extremely valuable. Therefore, I think Ellis is an NHL lock. Just look at Erik Karlsson who weighs 160 pounds after a night of binge drinking and fried foods.

But like with all smaller, offensive-minded Dmen, Ellis is considered a boom-or-bust prospect. People compare him to Kris Russell and assume he will follow a similar career path just because they are both small and put up big numbers in juniors.

However, when I compare Ellis to Russell, I see Ellis as a player who has a lot more fire and 10x the compete level as Russell. Ellis is a captain and gritty player who will battle to the death for a puck. He may get outmatched physically by larger NHL players, but Ellis will compete and I think that will be why he ends up a solid top-4 Dman with exceptional PP skills.

When I evaluate Ellis, I really think he has the tools, shot and heart to end up equally as good as players like Rafalski, Enstrom, Visnovsky, Karlsson, Fowler, Kaberle and Streit, both in the NHL and fantasy. When push comes to shove, do you?

That brings me to your point about Ellis needing to get out of Nashville. This is why it gets tricky for me in regards to Suter as well. Because I really think Ellis is either eventually moved (for help at forward) or he ultimately bumps Suter off the #1 PP unit. I am afraid if I deal Ellis+ for Suter, within 2-3 years (when I really need him to replace someone like Gonchar, Markov, Visnovsky and Chara) I will regret it.

We start 6 Dmen and right now my defensive depth chart is as follows:

1.) Markov (if/when healthy)
2.) Enstrom
3.) Visnovsky
4.) Karlsson
5.) Kaberle
6.) Chara

Then I have guys like Gonchar, McBain, Pietrangelo, Kulikov and puppies like OEL, Ellis and Rundblad in the fold.

So, if I were to deal Ellis (and his long-term potential) for Suter or EJ, where would those guys move into my depth chart over the next 2-3 seasons? Even with all of EJ's promise, I really don't see him being one of my top-3 Dmen in 2 years. In fact, I think by then Pietrangelo will be a better offensive player than Johnson.

If you were in my shoes, would you give up Ellis+ for one of these guys, factoring in where they would fit in with my team? In other words, if Johnson/Suter will be 45-point guys for the next two seasons (then bump up to 55) is it worth bailing on Ellis right now for them if he will be a 55-60 guy himself in a few years? Keep in mind, this is a G-bonused, points-only league. +/- and PIM, etc. are worthless.

[Goggles Pizano]

I'm not a big believer in EJ. Ellis who knows. It's so hard to say wit young dmen.

I hate waiting on prospect d. It's so hit an miss. I always try to aquire young dmen once they are just on the cusp of breaking out.

[Steffen]

I'm not a big believer in EJ. Ellis who knows. It's so hard to say wit young dmen.

I hate waiting on prospect d. It's so hit an miss. I always try to aquire young dmen once they are just on the cusp of breaking out.

Excellent plan. The "cusp" plan.

Problem is, d-men were taking 6-7 years to peak statistically, until lately it seems.

EJ is Bouwmeestering before our eyes. He's skilled, but his fantasy worth will always be controlled by the roles he's asked to play in the real world. Unfortunately for us, he's good defensively.
My gut upside? 17+38=55, if so tasked. But he won't be.

Suter is cut from the same cloth, but a slightly lesser version, fantasy-wise.
My gut upside? 12+38=50.

My 2 cents, worth less.

[fungchen3]

Thanks Deaner, Goggles and Steffen!! You all make good points.

[Chuk]

One thing I would consider with EJ is the effect that his blown out knee had.

Considering his rookie year he had 33 points, then missed a year, followed by a 39 point year, now on pace for a mere 26... I kind of view this as his year #2 in the league even though it is officially year 4. Kind of an odd way to look at it but guys with major knee/ACL injuries usually need a year to get things going again (Williams LA, Cole CAR come to mind)

Look at JJ, as he might be the best comparison. His points went 11, 11(missed 41 games with a shoulder injury), 36 and now 37 so far this year. So we see in his fourth year, when healthy, paired with Doughty and on a successful team we are finally seeing a "breakout". No one doubts his talent now, but last year he was just starting to grow.

Here come the IFS....
If St. Louis avoids the injury bug and takeas another step.
If Pietriangelo and EJ become comfortable as the top pairing.
If EJ stays healthy....

I can easily see that type of year JJ has had and EJ being n his way to a 20G-40A average for the next decade. Plus a higher upside. I think next year will be the year that we really see things come together. i am definitely looking to acquire him in the off-season if possible.

I can see the diffreence between Suter and EJ being up to 15 goals a year. With a mximum difference of 25 points. We will see.

[fungchen3]

Chuk, JJ may be a nice comparison. But you mentioned the knee injuries, they do worry me a bit. I know injuries can happen to any player, any time. But EJ is so big and plays a super physical style, I wonder if he will just be one of those guys who gets his share of injuries because of it. That said, I agree that EJ has awesome potential if things work out for him. Do the injuries have you a bit worried with EJ?

[Chuk]

Knee injuries scare the hell out of me. I think the key components are age and rehabilitation. In EJs case he is both young and has access to the best rehab possible.

The reason that I called this year 2 for him is that the year after ACL surgery is generally not a good measure of the player, wether it is timing, strength or confidence in the knee. I look at Williams from LA and I think that his ACL in 2007/2008 and the achilles injury took him away from the game and his game so long he needed a year to get back to square 1. He is definitely a band aid boy but he is the best example I can think of regarding a bounce back from a seious knee injury.

I would suggest watching the Blues in action or speaking to their fans and see if things like his physical game and shot are back. Once the psychological part of the healing is done and confidence in the knee returns, then the player can begin "rehabing his game".

I like Suter and would love to have him as a #3-4 d-man, but I would like to have a healthy and productive EJ more especially because he could be your #1. What is EJs downside? (10 G and 40P = Suter) The problem is if you do not get him now and he does return to form, you will never get him. Plus his pedigree as a #1 pick makes him worth the risk.

[fungchen3]

Chuk,

The price I would have to pay for E.Johnson is Alex Semin and Ryan Ellis. Still worth it, based on my format? In order to justify this, I need EJ to end up a reliable 15-20G/55-60 point player.

[Chuk]

Damn. Well that is a pretty tough choice, big risk.
I never liked Semin as much as everyone else but I am a fan of Ellis.
Let me get back to you...LOL

[fungchen3]

Let me get back to you...LOL

Priceless, rotfl. First time I've heard that on these boards.

[fungchen3]

Ok, fellas. A quick update - so I pulled the trigger on a whopper tonight involving the main principles in this thread. Here is the breakdown:

I trade: Michael Frolik, Ryan Ellis and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ouch! Did not want to give up!)

I receive: Bobby Ryan, Erik Johnson and Kyle Quincey (dead body; will not protect)

The bottom line to this deal is I wanted the potential stud D pairing of E.Johnson and Pietrangelo. In order the land E.Johnson I was told I had to part with either Karlsson or OEL, so I chose OEL. Then Bobby Ryan was brought up and the sticker price was Frolik and *Ellis (which I feel was too good to pass up for a player with the talent Ryan). So I pulled the trigger, but I still have reservations about Ellis and especially OEL. I think Ekman-Larsson is going to end up a special player soon but I am banking on Johnson reaching some of his potential as well.

*Oh, so Ellis was then flipped for Ryan Suter. So the guy who moved Ryan and EJ ended up with Frolik, Suter and OEL.

Thanks for all the advice and opinions in this thread so far. And, please, chime in on my trade. Again, my format is in my signature.