Keith, J.Johnson, Boyle - how would you rank them?

[PocketRockets05]

10-team partial keeper league. Each team keeps 2D.

In what order would you keep the following D:
1. Duncan Keith
2. Dan Boyle
3. J. Johnson


thanks

[ridinryan44]

Boyle
Keith
Johnson


Boyle still has plenty left in the tank.... Keith, while great, is not the 60 point dman of last year, IMO.... Johnson is a multi-cat stud, but I'd still take the other two before him....

[deantime419]

Boyle is 1st by a pretty wide margin for me

Keith/JJ is pretty close for me... I'll actually take JJ but Keith might hold more name value...

[fungchen3]

Considering this is a keeper, I would go with:

1.) Keith

2.) Johnson

3.) Boyle

This is due to the fact that Boyle is going on 35 years old and Keith/Johnson are in their early-to-mid-20s; plus the point separation gap between Boyle and them has narrowed significantly.

Keith was close to a 70-point Dman last season, and should balance out to a steady 50-55 guy. JJ will also be a steady 50-point guy. So, even if Boyle ends up with 60 (outscoring them by 5-10 points, max) I would be in favor of gaining the bunch of years here.

Hell, Johnson is 10 years younger than Boyle. No way I am picking Boyle over him in a keeper just for a lousy 5 extra points (JJ is outscoring him right now anyway). As for Keith, he was one of the elite keeper Dmen on the planet last season; I'm not ready to bail on him.

[gfhyde]

Considering this is a keeper, I would go with:

1.) Keith

2.) Johnson

3.) Boyle

Same. I'm surprised the few posters above you took Boyle first.

I love me some Boyle as much as the next guy, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and these guys are capable of doing the same thing without a hip replacement etc etc

[finnys_fanatsy]

Keith
JJ
Boyle

i would put Keith and JJ as 1A and 1B, with the slightest edge to Keith because of the team he is on. if JJ was on a better team it would be different.

[wminogue1980]

Same. I'm surprised the few posters above you took Boyle first.

I love me some Boyle as much as the next guy, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and these guys are capable of doing the same thing without a hip replacement etc etc

Same here!

[fungchen3]

Same. I'm surprised the few posters above you took Boyle first.

I love me some Boyle as much as the next guy, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and these guys are capable of doing the same thing without a hip replacement etc etc

Getting hooked on name recognition in a keeper league could spell disaster. Timing is also monumental when making key decisions. If you hang on to a player a little too long at the expense of a younger player, you could pay the price. Trust me, I'm speaking from experience.

That is the main reason I traded Lecavalier for Ennis early this year. I call it the "pivotal phase" - and it's the balance of deciding between "an aging/declining player with name recognition" and a "young, promising player" on the verge over equalling or surpassing that player with name recognition.

In most cases, the perfect pivotal phase will/should last a year or 2 (max) and that is when the decision should be made. If the pivotal phase passes, in most cases the deal will be lost, or the price for the "young, promising player" could easily double or triple.

So, in the case of Boyle vs. Johnson, we are right now in the pivotal phase. The way I see it, Boyle could outpoint Johnson for another year (or 2 tops) then it is all JJ from that point out. But, if JJ outpoints Boyle this year and goes on his steady run, you will regret chosing Boyle for a long time.

The case of Boyle vs. Keith is even easier to me since last year Keith beat Boyle's career high for points in a season by 6 points (69 vs. 63). Keith is having a down year and is only 6 points behind Boyle, with 7 years of age difference in his favor.

In a 1-year league, age is meaningless so you bite the bullet and go with the steady producer over the distance (which would be Boyle) but not in a keeper, no way.

[PocketRockets05]

Thanks for all the input gents. The ranking I'm leaning towards are:

1A) J.Johnson
1B) Keith

2) Boyle


The reason I have J.Johnson ahead of Keith is I feel from an offensive standpoint I believe J.Johnson has a greater ability to produce than Keith. Keith is relied on VERY heavily in Chicago from a defensive standpoint. He plays crazy amounts of minutes, and due to that I believe that will limit his offensive upside as he won't necessarily be worn out but won't be as fresh as a guy like JJ. Furthermore, Chicago is a great team, but I think I like LA even better in the long-run from an offensive standpoint. Still lots of cap space so who knows who else they will get in years to come to complement their other offensive players. Doughty and JJ are going to be a deadly combo on the powerplay for years, just like Rafalski and Lidstrom have been. At the end of the day, JJ vs Keith is a toss up for me and ended up with either/or is a great situtation but I think I'm going to choose to go with the guy who is 4 years younger. Thanks everyone once again!

[ridinryan44]

I buy in to Angus' three year window. As long as I'm competing I will take the guy who I think is the best producer for the next three years. Situation definitely plays a big role in this and if you are not ready to compete right yet then I totally agree with the above posters. Other than that Boyle is a no-brainer for me...

[ridinryan44]

Getting hooked on name recognition in a keeper league could spell disaster. Timing is also monumental when making key decisions. If you hang on to a player a little too long at the expense of a younger player, you could pay the price. Trust me, I'm speaking from experience.

That is the main reason I traded Lecavalier for Ennis early this year. I call it the "pivotal phase" - and it's the balance of deciding between "an aging/declining player with name recognition" and a "young, promising player" on the verge over equalling or surpassing that player with name recognition.

In most cases, the perfect pivotal phase will/should last a year or 2 (max) and that is when the decision should be made. If the pivotal phase passes, in most cases the deal will be lost, or the price for the "young, promising player" could easily double or triple.

So, in the case of Boyle vs. Johnson, we are right now in the pivotal phase. The way I see it, Boyle could outpoint Johnson for another year (or 2 tops) then it is all JJ from that point out. But, if JJ outpoints Boyle this year and goes on his steady run, you will regret chosing Boyle for a long time.

The case of Boyle vs. Keith is even easier to me since last year Keith beat Boyle's career high for points in a season by 6 points (69 vs. 63). Keith is having a down year and is only 6 points behind Boyle, with 7 years of age difference in his favor.

In a 1-year league, age is meaningless so you bite the bullet and go with the steady producer over the distance (which would be Boyle) but not in a keeper, no way.

To me it's not name recognition, it's production. There aren't many dmen out there who have done what Boyle has done over the last 5 years, so consistently. I'm a huge Boyle fan, though I've never managed to own him, but he definitely is getting up there. I'm also a believer that Boyle will still play another 3-5 years, though.

[PocketRockets05]

I buy in to Angus' three year window. As long as I'm competing I will take the guy who I think is the best producer for the next three years. Situation definitely plays a big role in this and if you are not ready to compete right yet then I totally agree with the above posters. Other than that Boyle is a no-brainer for me...

Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it. I feel ya with the 3-year window, I'm 100% for that principle. Now that I think about it, if you delve a little deeper into the stats this is what I get.

Long term: (I'm talking 5 years down the road)
I would say the consensus is Jack Johnson over Boyle.

1 year......
Current stats this year:
Jack Johnson: 37PTS, 24PPP, -5
Dan Boyle: 35PTS, 22PPP, -9
So, based on these stats it's not even clear-cut that Boyle is the better option. Actually, if Team A has had JJ on their team this year, and Team B has had Boyle, Team A has received better production. Thus, what would make me believe that Boyle does in fact have a better 3-year window than someone who is currently outproducing him even this year. If we were talking maybe Pietrangelo or Del Zotto vs Boyle then I think the 3-year window argument would definitely be applied there as to why Boyle is the better option, but if we're talking JJ vs Boyle then I think it's debatable who will have the better next 3-years, and if the question is debatable I feel you gotta go with the younger of the two. Do you agree? If you don't would love to hear why. Thanks!

[finnys_fanatsy]

i was just looking at your team. what is the resason for this question?

you already have JJ on your squad but not the other two, are you looking to aquire one of the other guys? if so you'd have to look at what you'd be giving up...

i'd say stick with JJ, and evaluate the cost to aquire Keith.

[PocketRockets05]

i was just looking at your team. what is the resason for this question?

you already have JJ on your squad but not the other two, are you looking to aquire one of the other guys? if so you'd have to look at what you'd be giving up...

i'd say stick with JJ, and evaluate the cost to aquire Keith.

I've been offered Boyle straight up for JJ. I've also been offered Keith+5th for JJ+3rd.

[finnys_fanatsy]

ahhhh,

Boyle for JJ straight up = no way

i'd still be looking to keep JJ, unless he drops his '3rd' to something like a '7th', he really wants JJ, so there should be no reason why you cannot get 'the win' here.