Rest of the year : Pavelec vs Ward

[legendkiller89]

Point system is in my sig

Ward vs Pavelec

Who would you rather have for the remainder of the season

[MT319]

with Wins being a +3 and Losses a -1 I couldn't say Ward on Carolina with a clear conscience...Pavelec

[RizzeeDizzee]

I must admit that I'm more used to traditional goalie scoring systems, but I have to think that in most any system you're better off with Ward the rest of the way. The key factors are that Pavelec is already showing signs of breaking down. He has never played 40+ games in a season against NHL talent, whereas Ward has done that - and then some - several times already. The other thing to keep in mind is that Carolina has far and away the most home games left of any NHL team (they had that brutal road stretch to start the year). That eliminates the grind of travel and gives them the home team edge. Aside from those factors, I also happen to think that Ward would outplay Pavelec if all things were otherwise equal.

[MT319]

I don't see Pavelec as having breaking down more than I see his D giving up 35+ shots a game and bottoming out their offensive production he's slumped a bit for a week or so, but it's not these are 22 shot losses...he's been getting pummeled as of late as well and Carolina is pretty poor across the board at least ATL has a decent enough club over there to really string up another good late season run like they did this year pretty much OCT through December

[metaldude26]

Yeah in a points only setting you are getting into a battle over who the better goalie is. This is about team, and Atlanta is better.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

This is about team, and Atlanta is better.

I'm going to challenge you here, MD.

Atlanta: 47 GP, 51 points, 143 GF, 151 GA, 3-5-2 in their last 10.
Carolina: 44 GP, 50 points, 135 GF, 135 GA, 7-1-2 in their last 10.

Seems like everyone agrees that Atlanta is a better team, but the numbers don't prove that out especially when GF/GA ratio has been proven out to be one of the best predictors of success for a team. So where's the justification for the statement that Atlanta is the better team?

If the teams are pretty close, why wouldn't you go with the more proven goaltender?

Ward for me.

[metaldude26]

I genuinely believe that Atlanta is the better hockey team. I know where the numbers are but I've watched both of these clubs and I really like what Atlanta has with their depth. I think that will lend itself to more consistent play over the long haul. I know Carolina has a history of late season surges so it'll be interesting to watch but right now I think Atlanta is the better hockey team.

[MT319]

I'm going to challenge you here, MD.

Atlanta: 47 GP, 51 points, 143 GF, 151 GA, 3-5-2 in their last 10.
Carolina: 44 GP, 50 points, 135 GF, 135 GA, 7-1-2 in their last 10.

Seems like everyone agrees that Atlanta is a better team, but the numbers don't prove that out especially when GF/GA ratio has been proven out to be one of the best predictors of success for a team. So where's the justification for the statement that Atlanta is the better team?

If the teams are pretty close, why wouldn't you go with the more proven goaltender?

Ward for me.

Take that stat remove the entire stretch where Pavelec was out with injury and the last 10 days-12 days worth of games where they've struggled and then what's it look like for Atlanta...they were extremely good from late Oct through Dec and have much more potency all-around than Carolina does to where I see them finish strong post all-star break similar to the late Oct-Dec stretch

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Take that stat remove the entire stretch where Pavelec was out with injury and the last 10 days-12 days worth of games where they've struggled and then what's it look like for Atlanta

Why? They're not going to struggle anymore? Can we remove a stretch of games when Carolina has struggled too? If not, why not?

I genuinely believe that Atlanta is the better hockey team. I know where the numbers are but I've watched both of these clubs and I really like what Atlanta has with their depth.

Atlanta looks good, but their GF/GA ratio is poop. If you really want to geek out, check out Alan Ryder's awesome paper on predicting wins over at Hockey Analytics. Anyway, suffice it to say that if a team has more GA than GF, I'm not likely to believe that they'll be successful. I suppose they could turn it around, but show me.

Ward for me!

[st89jebn]

Pavelec was great in November and even some of December, but he started killing my goalie stats (GAA and SV%). I had to kick him to the curb.

[gfhyde]

I'd have to go Ward too. Why? For every reason poolgeek pointed out. Because he's played a full season before. Because I believe he's a better goalie. And because Carolina tends to go absolutely mental in the second half of the seasn.

[oasiswings1]

I am pretty sure that if you take any teams bad streches out of the equation youw oudl find most teams are pretty good!!!

that said, carolina is typically a 2nd half monster(there you go mcguire) and as much as i like atlanta this year i think they need to prove it to me just a bit more.

i think ward is also the better goalie.

take ward