[Metaldude's Power Chords] Jamie McBain

[metaldude26]

Changing it up a little bit here cuz I noticed this obvious trend with McBain that needed to be pointed out and cuz quite frankly McBain is a rookie and therefore still a prospect in my mind. In fact, in some of my pools he is either still under prospect eligibility or just lost it recently. Either way you slice it, he doesn't have 82 games and in my mind that's a pretty good, if arbitrary line to draw.

How quickly things can change. McBain was everyone's (myself included) preseason darling. A rookie defenseman who could defy the odds and put up big points. Why? He had some nice pedigree as a 2nd rounder back in '06 and a two-time member of Team USA at the WJC. He was also the 08/09 WCHA player of the year after recording 37 points in 40 games at the University of Wisconsin. So yeah, he was a great prospect, but it was his cameo at the end of last season (10 points in 14 games) that had us buzzing. So what went wrong? It was simply two oversights:

1) Joe Corvo was actually good enough to steal his powerplay time despite being a collassal failure for Carolina in his previous stint with the team.

2) McBain was a rookie, you can't really expect consistency from even the best of rookies. (Right Taylor Hall, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares?) In retrospect 14 games was simply too small a sample size to base predictions on. Keep that in mind for this year's crop of late season callups.

So he stumbled out of the gate with just 5 points in the first two months. Then all of a sudden he pops when the calendar turns to 2011. He's got 7 points through 8 games in the new year. It can't be as simple as him adjusting his watch, so what has changed to allow him to pop?

It's no secret that a defenseman's production is directly linked to powerplay time. McBain was on the second unit with Corvo-Pitkanen manning the first unit. So what happens? Pitkanen goes down in their December 28th game against Toronto and misses the next 5 games. McBain's production takes off from there.

Oddly enough Pitkanen and McBain form a pairing at even strength, but Pitkanen is a minutes eater and he was gobbling up all of Carolina's top powerplay minutes. So when Pitkanen went down McBain stepped up huge, receiving big minutes and teaming up with Corvo on the top powerplay unit. McBain played over 18 minutes in half of Carolina's first 35 games, but in the 5 games Pitkanen was out he did that every game.

Since Pitkanen's return the minutes have been down but the powerplay time has remained. He continues to play on the top unit and I suspect he'll stay there until he stumbles for a prolonged period. The powerplay is clicking at over 34% since Pitkanen went down and McBain took over. That success speaks for itself even if it is a small sample size.

Now I do have my concerns that as Pitkanen gets healthier we'll see him take some of the minutes back. Pitkanen led the league in ice time last season and averages over 24 minutes a game on the season but only has one game for over 24 since he's been back. He's clearly still getting back into the flow. With that considered, I don't think they'll mess with things as long as McBain has them clicking.

The important thing here is to keep a watch on McBain's powerplay time. Sure half of the points in his recent surge didn't come on the powerplay but that's a confidence thing. You get the offensive minutes and you get into the flow and things start going in for you. As long as McBain is on the top unit we should see him producing. The minute he gets taken off it's time to jump ship.

I like him for a big second half because Carolina is one of the better offensive teams in the league and he is improving their middle of the pack powerplay. I also think that not having to log so many powerplay minutes will be good for Pitkanen because he's a notoriously injury prone player and this will reduce the load while freeing him up to log all the dirty minutes. Give McBain a shot if you haven't already. Last season's cameo proved one thing, if nothing else that he can get hot for extended period's. I'll hop on this hot streak even if it's all it amounts to.

This also serves notice that last season was no fluke. He's got the talent and is ready to produce now. He's an obvious person of interest for all keeper leagues.

As always this was originally posted on my blog: http://stevelaidlawsports.blogspot.com/

[ericdaoust]

Great article! A couple things jump out at me as I'm reading this.

1) NHL coaches don't play fantasy hockey. They won't put up with a rookie's ups and downs if there's a better or more stable option down the bench. They're paid to win games and put their teams in the best position to succeed. For the first half McBain was the 3rd best offensive dman and was treated as such.

2) What McBain did in 14 games last season is remarkable. But that still only represents a small fraction of a season. That was a sprint and this season is a marathon that exposes everyone to the full spectrum of situations that a team goes through over 82 games. I think this situation is very similar to PK Subban over in Montreal. He had an outstanding playoff series against the Pens but that was still just a chunk of games where his weaknesses were not exposed.

In the case of both dmen I mentioned I believe the finished product will be worth the investment.

[c_robio]

Great post to read as a McBain owner and I agree that the common factor to last year's outburst and the current one are top PP minutes.

Your post also got me thinking about Mcbain in the AHL last year and how he had an unreal second half after adjusting to that league so I looked up his numbers to add to the discussion

October - 3 pts in 11 Games
November - 5 Pts in 12 Games
December - 5 Pts in 12 Games
January - 6 Pts in 12 Games
February - 13 Pts in 14 Games
March - 8 Pts in 7 Games

Then he went on to the NHL for that nice run we all remember at the tail end of last season.

[metaldude26]

ED, Subban was exactly who I was thinking about when I made my statement about late season callups. He and McBain were almost too good to be true.

Excellent post robio! That's some great suplemental info.

[Bomm Bastic]

Great post, and I've added your blog to my list of favs. Love reading your shite, MD.

[metaldude26]

That's awesome Bomm! I really appreciate the feedback. Nice to know this stuff isn't falling on dead ears.

[GMGates]

With two Power Chords appearing on the main page, I think it's far from that (dead ears) MD haha.

If you're into suggestions, I'd like to know your thoughts on Dana Tyrell - TBL

[metaldude26]

With two Power Chords appearing on the main page, I think it's far from that (dead ears) MD haha.

If you're into suggestions, I'd like to know your thoughts on Dana Tyrell - TBL

I meant more in the sense about my blog. Only a couple months ago I wasn't getting more than 50 hits a month, but obviously with more exposure comes more results. Have to thank Dobber and Angus big time for that. Getting multiple articles on the front page with my blog linked in there has been huge for traffic this month.

As for Tyrell, decent candidate for me to write a "song" about but now that I think about it he doesn't quite have the upside of the players I'm looking to profile. I'm a pretty big believer in draft year numbers telling a fairly strong story about a prospect. Tyrell had 30 goals and 56 points in 70 games his draft year. That's good but not exceptional. Few players make the leap to the NHL and actually boost their draft year numbers from junior. Milan Lucic stands out as one such example. Is Tyrell the next Lucic? Probably not. What I do like is that he's clearly an NHLer. He plays hard and has some edge to his game. Third line energy guy who can slot in on a scoring line in a pinch. He's shown some goal scoring prowess in the past. 25 goals and 50 points wouldn't be terrible production and that's what I'm thinking for Tyrell at his peak. You never know with chemistry though. Being a winger in Tampa Bay is a damn good situation to find yourself in. Upside is 65 if he sticks beside Stamkos for a year.

[Bomm Bastic]

I believe I'm your newest stalk....I mean follower.

[GMGates]

I meant more in the sense about my blog. Only a couple months ago I wasn't getting more than 50 hits a month, but obviously with more exposure comes more results. Have to thank Dobber and Angus big time for that. Getting multiple articles on the front page with my blog linked in there has been huge for traffic this month.

25 goals and 50 points wouldn't be terrible production and that's what I'm thinking for Tyrell at his peak. You never know with chemistry though. Being a winger in Tampa Bay is a damn good situation to find yourself in. Upside is 65 if he sticks beside Stamkos for a year.

Curious to see what's your hit count at this month?

As for Tyrell, that's a good guesstimate. In my deep league, he's on my fourth line so 50 points is more than enough to keep me satisfied.

[metaldude26]

I just went over 300 views yesterday. Easily a record month for me.

[ericdaoust]

I just went over 300 views yesterday. Easily a record month for me.

Nice!

I really enjoy all the prospect profiles because they help outline the intangibles that often make or break a player's career. I especially enjoy the write-ups when it's not your household names. As much as it's nice to get the Halls and Seguins of the world I always felt like the middle-to-late rounds are where championships are won. Just ask the Red Wings how they feel about that.

[metaldude26]

Nice!

I really enjoy all the prospect profiles because they help outline the intangibles that often make or break a player's career. I especially enjoy the write-ups when it's not your household names. As much as it's nice to get the Halls and Seguins of the world I always felt like the middle-to-late rounds are where championships are won. Just ask the Red Wings how they feel about that.

Yeah, this is what I'm striving for. I don't see the point in profiling players that everyone is bound to know about. The only way to be effective and really to distinguish yourself is un-earth new information and bring to light players who otherwise would be lingering under the radar.

This also reflects my strategy as a keeper league manager. I don't mind selling off the future to help me win now but that also puts me in the precarious position of having to work harder to find good prospects. I think I do a pretty good job of it but obviously I can improve and that's half the battle with these profiles. So I get to learn as much as you guys do.