Cooking a trade - need some thoughts

[Shoeless]

Team in signature

I am looking to move one of my stud goalies for a stud skater. The full make-up of the deal is not that important but I do have a dilemma regarding the goalies in the move.

First - we have a 100 max games per position - I have 101 games in at goal so I need to get essentially another 99 good starts in to the end. All 3 of my guys are horses and I expect to get close to 40 games each from the two guys I keep - so the goalie I get coming back would need to get me 20 starts or so.

Will Backstrom give me those starts? He also has Ellis and Smith I am doubting either will give me the starts I need - I would happily take either if I was assured they would. I don\'t want to go cheap on this guy and the deal will in the end benefit me as long as I get 20 good starts in.

There is always the alternative of letting Kipper and Nabbie go in the package to get back Dipietro and Backstrom - of course the skater comes and a replacement skater goes - but I think I might wait til the all-star break and get some more goalie games in first.

[Dilly]

The toughest thing for you is that they are all western conference goalies and will do a lot of head to head games. I see where you are in a quandry but Backstrom won\'t alleviate that part of it. Remember that Kipper hasn\'t got a shutout string rolling and Luongo has had his. I might chance dangling a Luongo move start out high and see what the market will bring as you will get a stud back and he has the most allure as trade bait. You should get a top 12 player for him and that might be an approach but for sure you have three horses for goalies.

[Shoeless]

Thanks Dilly - that they are in the same conference is not much of an issue as it is points and the last H2H I had I pulled down good stuff from both guys.

Goalies are gold in our league - Luongo will the top fantasy point getter or very close - skaters tend to be 50 or more points back - I can get Crosby for Luongo easily but I need good coverage coming back for those goalie games is all.

Here is a possible deal I might be able to swing - my Nabbie,Lupul,E. Staal and Kubina for Heatley, B, Richards and Khabi - the other deal is my Nabbie, Lupul and Kubina for Iggie and Backstrom or something close to that.

[doulos]

Hey is this a keeper league?

[flyers9327]

I think Dobber should have another rule:

1. Never trade Crosby
1a. Never trade Luongo

That move is not a good one in my opinion. A goalie like Luongo, in a keeper, is the best thing you could have in net. He is the Crosby of goaltending.

Ellis/Smith will not get you your 20 starts that you need. Unless there is an injury which is impossible to predict and far to risky to chance.I do agree that with Backstrom he plays tougher games but he also has a decent team in from of him. Nashville is terrible, and with Smith....he is terrible. I like Backstrom but is it possible to get Harding? He would be a cheap pickup and should get you those 20 games.

If I were you I would try to move Kipper. Depending on how up on things your league is people may think he is the next best thing since sliced bread. 9-1 in December. Sell high and grab the best skater you can. In my league he could probably get a Spezza or maybe even Malkin. Tough to say who you should go after only because every league is different and some GM\'s are impossible to trade with.

When I say sell high I don\'t mean Kipper will not be a good goalie this year but as you can see at the start of the season he could get into a funk and let in some bad goals. We all know that defense isn\'t a bunch of all-stars.

[Dilly]

Shoeless I like the first trade idea. That way you still have Luongo and Kipper. I have been playing these for quite a while and only started to get involved in commenting on this site this year as most of my league are here but I like to weigh in with my thoughts. I am a junkie and this is my fix. If you can do that first trade it will only upgrade you and I don\'t see a downside. Without knowing the weighting your league has on goalies I would suggest you do projection on the frozen pool site and with your weighting system figure out futures until seasons end.
Interesting possibilities. Good Luck

[doulos]

Wait it\'s a Yahoo so assuming it\'s not a keeper.

I\'m also guessing that you might be a little ahead of the game with your defense game which is why you\'re starting of just throwing Kubina around to sweeten the pot.

Do quality of starts matter at all? If so then Backstrom is the guy to pickup for sure. Something to keep in mind is the injury history as well. I am fully expecting a groin injury from Nabokov at some point this year. The guy is going from playing 35 games last year to every game this year so far. Something is going to give and my bet is his groin. So Nabby would be the guy to trade I think.

If quality of starts don\'t matter so much and it\'s just wins then the deal including Heatley and Khabibulin seems like it\'s not so bad. Chicago is proving that they are going to keep winning this year - at least at a decent rate. And with Heatley - well you know what you\'re getting.

[Shoeless]

Yeah sorry Doulos - not a keeper.

The best starts are wins with high saves - Vokoun is rocking. SHO are nice but not critical.

Kubina is essentially replaceable from FA I can grab someone who won\'t finish very far off his pace - so yeah he is a sweetner because both those teams could use a decent D guy.

Flyers - I really wasn\'t planning to move Luongo just implying what could be had. Harding doesn\'t sit with a vulnerable team for this kind of trade.

Dilly - I am like you in many ways - I pretty much carry around in my head the outcome numbers from a deal like this and I know I will be up as long as I can get a goalie who will cover my 20 games with reasonable results. The Heater deal was not the first to cross my mind but the more I think about it the more I like it. I think Richards might just spank Staal in the second half as well and right now the illusion that Staal has more value still exists but may not for long.

I actually think the deal works for both sides on either of these trades so that is good. I\'m going to sleep on this stuff - thanks for chiming in guys - helps alot.

[reeveta]

If you have what must be the best goalies in the league and goalies are the most important players in the league can you not stick win with what you have?
If you can ride a few \'hot\' free agents here and there can you not win?

[Shoeless]

Great question. I think that at this point I can only play another 99 games in goal - if I swap out one of Kipper or Nabbie for a Backstrom or Khabi I am likely to drain 25 or 30 fantasy points away. If I can upgrade from Lupul to Iggie or Heater I stand to gain 100 fantasy points. So net gain of about 70 which isn\'t huge but an advantage is an advantage. I can still ride hot FA at the same time.

The crux of my debate is that I have 3 great goaltenders who likely will combine for another 120-130 games total if not a few more and I will only use 99 of them. Pasting in a B goalie for 15-20 games to get the games in. If I get Heater or Iggie I can play them flat out for the remaining games and I am not sure I would do that with the likes of Lupul.

Now this assumes alot. No injuries, guys like Lupul will not stay as hot as they are right now, guys like Iggie and Heater will keep up the pace.

One of the reasons I am considering this so early (I had planned a move like this for February) is that I have really gunned the goalie starts and reaped big time - the rest of my team is pedestrian in production but I have skater games in hand that would be nice to use with higher production players. If any two or three of my skaters get hot for several games then I stay in touch with the lead and can bide my time.

Another factor is that the two teams that I can trade with are falling back and before it appears hopeless for them a trade might get well met - if they drop off farther they might just say \"oh it doesn\'t matter\" and sit with what they have.