Reply With QuoteBe a bit aware -- he's started quickly before, only to slow down. A couple years ago, he was on pace for over 40 too and finished with 22. Not saying he's due to have it happen again, but selling him high isn't a bad option either.
Dan Girardi
Is he flying under most people's radar this year?
He's on a team that has no established PP QB... You could argue MDZ is the future, but he isn't producing this year.
He's on pace to be over 40 points, just shy of +20, with over 40 PIMs.
He's still pretty young, being only 26 years old, so he's likely just entering the prime of his career... In my keeper leagues a 40 point Dman is gold.
He's been on my bench for close to 2 years, and just recently I finally put him into my lineup.. And he's had 3 points in 3 games.
Is he going to wind up being a legitimate 40 point Dman going forward? Because his trade value is next to zero, which I find surprising given how he's doing. He is starting to seem like one of those guys that is worth WAY more to your team than you'll ever be able to get for him (Lidstrom has gotta be the prime example of that).
Edit - And as I write this post, Girardi scores a PP Goal, with Marc Staal picking up an assist.
When I read the ramblings this morning I couldn't have agreed more with Angus considering Girardi and Staal being one of the most underrated defensive pairs in the league.
Last edited by Brady19; December 16, 2010 at 7:35 PM.
Be a bit aware -- he's started quickly before, only to slow down. A couple years ago, he was on pace for over 40 too and finished with 22. Not saying he's due to have it happen again, but selling him high isn't a bad option either.
Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
Active roster (no starts, just total points): 12 FW, 6 D, 1 Goalie
Forwards: Kucherov, Barkov, Teravainen, Seguin, Hoffman, Lindholm, Gusev, Horvat, Meier, Perron, Schwartz, Johansen, Pavelski, Buchnevich, Hischier, Granlund, Bracco
Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson
Goal: Lehner, Holtby, Varlamov
Farm: Soderstrom, York, Woo, Tracey, Dorofeyev
I need to see him actually put up 40 points before I will value him as a 40 pt dman. Sure, he has the potential to do that. Lots of dmen have potential. But if I am going to acquire him in a trade, I'm not willing to give up much until he realizes his potential.
Yeah I guess. But if you are trying to acquire him, or anyone, after they've had their breakout year... You're pretty well always going to pay full price for a guy. Whereas if you can target these types of players BEFORE they have their breakout year... That's how you win in my opinion.Originally Posted by SeaDawg
Would you have rather acquired Doughty before his 59 point season last year, or before?
How about a guy like Kris Letang? He still only has 27 points this year, thats not even a career high... Do you still only value him as a career high 33 point guy? I doubt it.
he's definately worth owning in most 12 + team leagues that dress 6 d-men + a reserve bench
Doughty is 21 and a 2nd overall pick. He put up incredibly good numbers in junior.
Letang is 23. A first round pick and he also put up huge numbers in junior. Plus, the mooch factor is huge for Letang (being a Pen).
Girardi is 26. He went undrafted. He never put up huge numbers at any level of hockey.
I know you aren't comparing Girardi to those other two studs, but my point is that even before Doughty and Letang broke out, there were obvious signs that they'd be good fantasy players and that we'd want to acquire them sooner than later. I don't see any of that with Girardi. I mean, there is "potential", but it isn't obvious to me or anyone that he will become a consistent 40+ pt dman in the NHL. Maybe some late blooming dmen who have never put up high numbers before at any level of hockey eventually reach that potential in the NHL...but I can't think of any.
I'm not necessarily against Girardi, but I'm just not willing to give up much until I see the numbers.
Beware of d-men who get pts w/o competition on the PP or don't have an offensive resume. Might be good in the short term but doesnt last.
Dan Boyle also went undrafted. They don't even have any records of his junior play on hockeydb.com prior to college.
Markov was a 6th round pick, fairly mediocre offensive Dman until after the lockout... He didn't have a 40pt season until he was 27 or maybe 28?
Even just using top Dmen from last year.... Ehrhoff, Rafalski, Visnovsky... I dunno, I guess my point is just that there are a lot of relatively mediocre Dmen who really don't start to break out until after they're 25 years old.
In general though, I would agree pedigree is typically a good sign but to turn your nose up at someone (not saying you are) because he went undrafted and hasn't had a 40pt season before seems rather silly... But then again maybe in shallower leagues that is something that can be done...
Unfortunately in most of my leagues the best player avaliable on the Waiver Wire is someone like Toni Lydman. Which is why catching guys like this prior to breakouts is the only way to be able to get ahead.
Boyle put up decent numbers at Miami and in the AHL before becoming a regular in the NHL.
Rafalski put up decent numbers in Wisconsin and then excellent numbers in Finland before coming to the NHL. And when he entered the NHL he put up huge numbers immediately.
Visnovsky put up excellent numbers for Slovakia and anyone who ever watched him play Internationally for Slovakia could tell right away that he was dynamic and had potential to put up amazing numbers. And he did that right away (39 pt rookie season).
Markov too was awesome to watch at the junior levels before entering the NHL. Also very dynamic and seemed to have the potential to put up good offensive numbers in the NHL. And he put up decent numbers in Russia prior to coming to the NHL.
Sure, I will give you Ehrhoff as a good example of a late-blooming dman who never really put up decent numbers earlier in his career (at any level). But Ehrhoff is one of a few. I'm sure there are other examples, but it doesn't happen often.
Again, my point is that I am not writing Girardi off. I'm just saying that like Ehrhoff before him, until he puts up decent numbers I am not willing to give up much to get him. Sure, I might offer something to acquire him on the off-chance that he does become a consistent 40 pt dman, but I'm not willing to give up much at this point. Too many factors are stacked against him.
If you wait til he gets 40 pts you'll have missed the boat. Girardi is showing he's a worthwhile fantasy option. I wouldn't count on him being a consistent 40 point D, but a solid 2PP guy (sometimes 1PP) who plays in all situations with 30-40+ pt seasons - similar to a Seabrook. In leagues with peripheral stats like blocks, he's going to be pretty valuable for awhile.
20 Team Pool Points Keeper
G =1,A=1,PPG=1,PPA=0.5, SHG=1,GWG=1,PIM=0.1,+/-=0.25
Goalie cats (W=2, SO=3, SV=0.05)
F: Malkin, B.Richards, Franzen, D.Brown, Boedker, Zajac, Atkinson, Scheifele, Read, Boyes
D: Green, Schultz, Faulk, Goligoski
G: Crawford
yeap, that is entirely possible. Maybe I will miss the boat on him. I'm sure that if he puts up 40+ pts this year he will be nearly impossible to acquire next year.We aren't talking about Doughty here. But even if he does turn into a 40 pt player going forward, I doubt it will ever take all that much to acquire Girardi in a trade. Looking at Ehrhoff for example, would it really be all that difficult to get him in most leagues? I doubt it.
If someone has a strong feeling that he will be consistent going forward, then by all means they should do what they can to acquire him. Personally, I'm not yet convinced he will be anything special. I would take a small risk on him, but I'm not giving up much to acquire him at this point.
I think he's defiantly more valuable in leagues that count ATOI, Blocked shots and hits (especially Salary Cap leagues). For points only leagues, he's just not that valuable. I don't see him reaching 40pts this year and he's reaching his prime so I wouldn't expect much more out of him. That's my opinion though.
14 Team Dynasty League - 23 man roster, 25 man minors w/ custom cap, salaries & contracts
Skaters: (Start: 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D) - G/A/Pt/(+/-)/PIM/SOG/STP/TOI
Goalies: (Start 2) - W/GAA/SV/SV%
C: Schiefele, Zacha, RyJo, Patrick
LW: Guentzel, J.Robertson, Domi, Kempe
RW: Puljujarvi, Gurianov, D.Strome, Duchene
D: Ekblad, E.Karlsson, OEL, Morrissey, Jokiharju, Bear, Weber (LTIR)
G: MAF, Price, Driedger, Bishop (LTIR)
Minors: (25 max)
Skaters: Hayton, JAD, J.Boqvist, Dahlen, Bunting, Gusev, Damiani, Groulx, Poehling, Benson, Beaucage, Lind, Sprong,Stankoven, Ahcan, PO. Joseph, McIsaac Goalies: Wallstedt, UPL, Comrie, Ersson, S.Skinner, Skarek, Johansson
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