Edmonton Oilers

[2014olympicgold]

Curious what odds you are using. Dom L and Moneypuck have them well over 80% odds now.

I've used Hockey Reference anytime I look at probabilities.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi

Moneypuck playoff probability page is sponsored by US and Canadian sports books. I dunno if that would influence their page because it's based of simulations of inputted data, but I found that interesting.

---EDIT---
The difference could just be HR says Probability and MoneyPuck says Odds. Which in math use different formulas to calculate. But Odds typically are a ratio or fraction, so MoneyPuck might just be using the wrong term.

[doulos]

What a terrible signing Hyman was. I imagine he wants out of Edmonton too.

[2014olympicgold]

What a terrible signing Hyman was. I imagine he wants out of Edmonton too.

Hyman will be the example agents point at when their client needs a deal with a history of knee injuries and 30yrs old. He's proved me wrong, I didn't want anything to do with Hyman and a deal over 4yrs, but he's been amazing with the Oilers. Will be interesting how he looks in 2yrs now when he's older, and possibly without Draisaitl and maybe McDavid.

Deal was always supposed to do well in the first 3yrs, then up in the air after that. He's exceeded expectations.

[LawMan]

What a terrible signing Hyman was. I imagine he wants out of Edmonton too.

LOL.
With these long-term threads you always have to check the date to determine whether a comment is sarcasm or not.
Hyman, what a beauty. It would be nice if he could get an All-Star nod (I know many fans think players do not care about these things but for a guy who has never gone you think it would mean something).
But he will likely be overshadowed by McDavid and Leon again.

[Axeman33]

What a terrible signing Hyman was. I imagine he wants out of Edmonton too.

I was just talking about this exact thing on the weekend with a buddy of mine. I wont lie, I didnt think he'd be THIS good but happy it's worked out. I think I've always said it's all about health for him and knock on wood, since he's been in Edmonton, he's been able to avoid most injuries.

[Axeman33]

Good interview with Draisaitl about his potential next contract.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...ract-to-watch/

[Rylant]

So what are the thoughts on the cost of getting rid of Jack Campbell? I think the obvious 2 answers are 1. Buying him out or 2. Trading him. Sportskeeda did an article recently suggesting that the Oilers could trade him to a team that was willing to eat the contract, but it would cost 2 first round draft picks. I was speaking with a buddy the other day and I told him that I thought 2 first round picks was steep for this, and the Oil would be better off just eating it and buying him out. My buddy suggested that trading him and giving up the picks is the more attractive route. He thinks the salary cap we would save would allow the Oilers to potentially pick up another piece at the deadline if they are serious about a cup run. Obviously the loss of the picks hurts, but his argument is that in the short term, it is the more attractive way to go. Obviously, that is dependent on the Oilers being able to pick up another asset. And it also depends on what the next 2 years look like during their playoff run.

I will be honest, at first, I was thinking it's a no brainer to buy him out rather than lose the 2 picks, but now, my buddy has me questioning my thoughts. What do you all think?

Rylant

[2014olympicgold]

The only way buyouts make sense is if you spend that money you "saved" on improving your team.

The savings in the first 3 yrs of a buyout is $9m, then it'll cost you $4.5m the next 3 yrs. The $9m saved over the next 3yrs could mean more to your team than the $4.5m it'll cost you when the cap is like $100m.

I would say a buyout makes way more sense than 2 1st round picks. Especially when you think Anaheim could give up Gibson for a 1st+. If you trade Campbell in a cap dump, you remove assets from your bag that you need to replace Campbell with. Or how you would improve the team with the extra cap you created by moving Campbell out.

If I'm SJS and the Oilers offered me 2 1st round picks for Campbell...I'm SMASHING accept. I don't think it would take that heavy of a price to take on Campbell.

[Axeman33]

I think trading him makes the most sense but not sure other teams will be willing to do that, not unless they are sending back a crap contract.

To be honest, I would be happy if the Oilers took a shot on someone like Merzlikins, who has seemed to have fallen out of favor in CBJ for Campbell. Similar contract and term. Maybe a reset for both goalies isn't a bad thing. Just my thought on Campbell.

[PenguinHunter]

Trading him always is the best option - but I don't think there is a price that other teams are willing to pay and that the Oilers are willing to give up to get rid of him.

So I think the buyout option is the way the Oilers will have to go.

[kovalchuk17]

The only way buyouts make sense is if you spend that money you "saved" on improving your team.

The savings in the first 3 yrs of a buyout is $9m, then it'll cost you $4.5m the next 3 yrs. The $9m saved over the next 3yrs could mean more to your team than the $4.5m it'll cost you when the cap is like $100m.

I would say a buyout makes way more sense than 2 1st round picks. Especially when you think Anaheim could give up Gibson for a 1st+. If you trade Campbell in a cap dump, you remove assets from your bag that you need to replace Campbell with. Or how you would improve the team with the extra cap you created by moving Campbell out.

If I'm SJS and the Oilers offered me 2 1st round picks for Campbell...I'm SMASHING accept. I don't think it would take that heavy of a price to take on Campbell.

Just adding onto the valuation of the buyout in terms of actual cap hit

Campbell is $5m AAV the following 3 seasons
Campbell buried would be $3.85m AAV give or take
Campbell bought out over the next 6 years would be $1.1m, $2.3m, $2.6m, $1.5m, $1.5m, $1.5m (via Capfriendly)

It really depends how you value first round picks these days. It is worth noting they're treated like gold for strong draft years and moveable in the right deal for weaker draft years.

Leon's deal is up in 1 year, Connor's in 2. With that lens and the cap presumably going up fast soon is it really worth giving up 2 first rounder picks if the Campbell buyout would only count against the cap for $1.1m then $2.3m for the guranteed portion of Connor's contract?

[LawMan]

CAP SAVINGS

Traded Buried Bought out
$5mil $1.15m $3.9m
$5mil $1.15m $2.7m
$5mil $1.15m $2.4m
$0 $0 -$1.5m
$0 $0 -$1.5m
$0 $0 -$1.5m

$15m $3.45m $4.5m TOTAL

So many factors. Obviously trading him is great as it frees cap space, but then you have no assets to trade at yearly deadlines for rentals, so you overpay free agents, using that cap space you acquired via trading him......
I was going to break it down mathematically but ended up going in a circle.
In short, I want the Oilers to be in "win-now" for the next 3-6 seasons. This requires them to get better immediately ever chance they can will still reserving something in the cupboard to have entry level contributors.
I think 2-firsts is too much but would consider 1-first and a 3rd and a prospect.

I think Holland tries hard this offseason to make a trade and if he cannot Campbell is bought out. No way he is an Oiler to start next season.

[Axeman33]

Will Holland even be making decisions this summer?

[metaldude26]

Will Holland even be making decisions this summer?

That's what I've been wondering.

[lobo1969]

Sad day in the Edmonton sports scene:

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/f...robin-brownlee