Edmonton Oilers

[hockeyrobot]

Great thoughts MD.

This is what an Alberta team should do to Ottawa.

[Axeman33]

It's an interesting question and one we've been asking since CuJo left!

A few things we know:

1. Koskinen is NOT capable of being a full-time starter. He is a perfectly capable tandem goalie but asking him to run with the starting gig for more than a week is too much to ask. He needs to be splitting the workload.

2. Ken Holland will go cheap in goal if he's not getting an elite netminder. Holland is on the record that there is little difference between the 10th and 40th goalie in the league so it doesn't make sense to spend unless you are getting a top-5 type option. They were in on Jacob Markstrom this past summer and when that failed (because Calgary offered more term, I believe) he went back to Smith on the cheap. This follows his track record. Outside of the Jimmy Howard long term deal once he was up for UFA he's basically signing bridge deals for guys like Mrazek, Howard, Bernier, Gustavsson, and cheapo vet deals for guys like Joey MacDonald. I suspect the flat cap will eliminate the ability to spend on a top-5 option (there may not even be one available) so we're looking at going cheap again.

This brings up an interesting notion, would they trade for someone?

I suspect his approach to signing goalies is similar to his approach to paying them. If you aren't paying a goalie big bucks why would you give up major assets for one? I suspect he'd trade for a true #1, but again is there one available? The only time Holland ever traded for a goalie was Hasek, an elite goalie, but also in the pre-cap era. Smith's excellent start since returning from injury has probably squashed the desire to make a deal this season, especially with the whole quarantine thing limiting what you can do in trades and the Darcy Kuemper injury taking a top target off the market.

This summer maybe they make a trade, but there are a ton of mid-tier free agents. Also the expansion draft may shake some things loose. Any of Mrazek, Reimer, Raanta, Bernier, Driedger, Rittich, Bernier could be in play as cheaper UFAs. Halak, Rask, Andersen, Binnington, Grubauer are all out there at the top of the market. Holland signed Bernier in Detroit and loves going back to the well so I've been penciling him into my roster projections.

Long term, the hope is that Ilya Konovalov (his contract in Russia is up this summer!) comes over and can be an Anton Khudobin (smaller goalie who succeeds anyhow). His numbers in the KHL have been great and he's highly intriguing as an older draft selection who may be closer to his prime than other draft picks like Stuart Skinner or Olivier Rodrigue. I long for a homegrown netminder, shame they blew it with Devan Dubnyk once upon a time.

Couldnt have said it better myself.

Smith's play this year has taken the urgency away from needing someone right away, but as noted, Smith is near the end. We still have one more year left of Koskinen but I would be shocked if we see Smith back again next year so something will need to happen in the off-season. As MD mentioned, there are plenty of FAs coming available, although some I dont expect to even hit the market. Binnington will be re-signed by STL and I expect Mrazek to be back in Carolina, although Nedeljkovic is trending upwards.

As much as I'd love to see Kuemper come to Edmonton, because I do believe he can be a difference maker, he has proven that his health cannot be trusted so I am fine to avoid that all together. I'd be happy to see Freddy Andersen come to Edmonton too but I dont know what he's expecting for a new deal. A flat cap for four more years doesn't bode well for paying big money for FAs, no matter the position, and Holland wont spend big on a goalie.

It's going to be an interesting off-season in Oil Country. I am crossing my fingers that Stalock can come in and push Koskinen for alternate starts but thats probably just me being optimistic.

[metaldude26]

I think Stalock is just here for an insurance policy. He'll probably play once they get him in game shape because he can't just rot and then be counted on for saves, but with Skinner needing to play consistently in the AHL they needed a body for their 3rd goalie and probably trust Stalock more than Grosenick.

I'm still trying to sort out in my brain if I want Smith to continue this hot run or not. If he does, they are probably a playoff team, but the flip side is then Smith is playing in the playoffs and I still don't trust him. A real catch 22, where it just feels like we're all waiting for this bubble to burst. Hopefully Koskinen's game is sorted by then!

[tweetdrivr]

Merzlikins via trade in the off season. Koskinen is not a starter.

[Axeman33]

I think Stalock is just here for an insurance policy. He'll probably play once they get him in game shape because he can't just rot and then be counted on for saves, but with Skinner needing to play consistently in the AHL they needed a body for their 3rd goalie and probably trust Stalock more than Grosenick.

I'm still trying to sort out in my brain if I want Smith to continue this hot run or not. If he does, they are probably a playoff team, but the flip side is then Smith is playing in the playoffs and I still don't trust him. A real catch 22, where it just feels like we're all waiting for this bubble to burst. Hopefully Koskinen's game is sorted by then!

Stalock is also signed dirt cheap next year so that's a bonus plus he's exposable for the expansion draft should they make a trade of some sort for someone worth keeping.

[doulos]

I think Stalock is just here for an insurance policy. He'll probably play once they get him in game shape because he can't just rot and then be counted on for saves, but with Skinner needing to play consistently in the AHL they needed a body for their 3rd goalie and probably trust Stalock more than Grosenick.

I'm still trying to sort out in my brain if I want Smith to continue this hot run or not. If he does, they are probably a playoff team, but the flip side is then Smith is playing in the playoffs and I still don't trust him. A real catch 22, where it just feels like we're all waiting for this bubble to burst. Hopefully Koskinen's game is sorted by then!

The downside is if Smith's play really falls off now, they might not even make the playoffs.

I'm rooting for him to keep it up. It's completely unsustainable, but enjoying the ride!

[LawMan]

This may be the smoothest pass I have ever seen. Even Draisaitl seems stunned to get the pass....

[chuckcouples]

I would like to officially name that goal the "Triple-Five-Hole Goal".

[LawMan]

I would like to officially name that goal the "Triple-Five-Hole Goal".

The "Fifteen-Hole" If you Will.

[chuckcouples]

That would also work although 555 Hole looks better to me!

[metaldude26]

Allan Mitchell took a crack at finding a fit for an Oilers Merzlikins acquisition after he was dropped as a potential trade target in Elliotte Friedman's 31 Thoughts earlier this week:

https://theathletic.com/2446673/2021...-fit-and-cost/

I liked the angle here that the waiver claim of Stalock could create the window to trade Koskinen for an upgrade as he could play some games while the new acquisition goes through quarantine.

What I didn't like was the lack of acknowledgement for CBJ's expansion situation. The proposal was offering up Koskinen + one of Bear or C Jones for Merzlikins, but doesn't really help CBJ because their season is lost and they already have 3D they'll keep locked in with S Jones, Werenski and Gavrikov.

You could argue that Bear or Jones have youth, low salaries and years of team control that would appeal to CBJ perhaps above Gavrikov or in lieu of protecting 7F 3D and perhaps exposing a Jenner. But I'd argue that CBJ is better off just waiting until the summer to make a deal when there are more teams shopping for goaltending, no expansion draft considerations and potentially more dollars to be spent.

The deadline is astronomically harder this season because:

A) the Oilers are capped out so need matching salary offsets in any deal.
B) there's little desire to spend in a season where every team is losing money, so no one wants that offsetting money coming back.
C) the expansion draft is hanging over everything. Any player a rebuilder adds has to be expansion exempt or so much better than another guy they'd otherwise protect that it's worth becoming a 2-for-1.
D) the Oilers are short on draft capital to spend as it is with 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounders out the door.

If the Oilers are truly in on Merzlikins Bear/Jones aren't the assets to peddle. They probably lose one of those guys in expansion so I understand the urge to get something in return but it just doesn't make sense for CBJ. Instead it's got to be one of the few elite prospect pieces or the 1st round pick +. Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, those names should have Holland hanging up the phone. So that leads you to a 1st plus a prospect in the Benson/Samorukov/Lavoie range, if they are lucky. I'm not sure how appetizing that is, but that's what we're looking at.

I'd probably rather have Kuemper at that price, or rather ride with the Smith bubble we know will burst.

*

BTW, anyone see the sick stats Stuart Skinner is rocking in the A? He is 7-2 with a 1.56 GAA and a .940 Sv%.

[Axeman33]

If Kuemper could show some ability to stay healthy, I'd be all over him but all he's showing is consistently finding his way to the IR year after year. His skillset is money but I don't like his inability to stay healthy.

[hawkdog]

Allan Mitchell took a crack at finding a fit for an Oilers Merzlikins acquisition after he was dropped as a potential trade target in Elliotte Friedman's 31 Thoughts earlier this week:

https://theathletic.com/2446673/2021...-fit-and-cost/

I liked the angle here that the waiver claim of Stalock could create the window to trade Koskinen for an upgrade as he could play some games while the new acquisition goes through quarantine.

What I didn't like was the lack of acknowledgement for CBJ's expansion situation. The proposal was offering up Koskinen + one of Bear or C Jones for Merzlikins, but doesn't really help CBJ because their season is lost and they already have 3D they'll keep locked in with S Jones, Werenski and Gavrikov.

You could argue that Bear or Jones have youth, low salaries and years of team control that would appeal to CBJ perhaps above Gavrikov or in lieu of protecting 7F 3D and perhaps exposing a Jenner. But I'd argue that CBJ is better off just waiting until the summer to make a deal when there are more teams shopping for goaltending, no expansion draft considerations and potentially more dollars to be spent.

The deadline is astronomically harder this season because:

A) the Oilers are capped out so need matching salary offsets in any deal.
B) there's little desire to spend in a season where every team is losing money, so no one wants that offsetting money coming back.
C) the expansion draft is hanging over everything. Any player a rebuilder adds has to be expansion exempt or so much better than another guy they'd otherwise protect that it's worth becoming a 2-for-1.
D) the Oilers are short on draft capital to spend as it is with 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounders out the door.

If the Oilers are truly in on Merzlikins Bear/Jones aren't the assets to peddle. They probably lose one of those guys in expansion so I understand the urge to get something in return but it just doesn't make sense for CBJ. Instead it's got to be one of the few elite prospect pieces or the 1st round pick +. Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, those names should have Holland hanging up the phone. So that leads you to a 1st plus a prospect in the Benson/Samorukov/Lavoie range, if they are lucky. I'm not sure how appetizing that is, but that's what we're looking at.

I'd probably rather have Kuemper at that price, or rather ride with the Smith bubble we know will burst.

*

BTW, anyone see the sick stats Stuart Skinner is rocking in the A? He is 7-2 with a 1.56 GAA and a .940 Sv%.

through RNH in the mix, CLB needs a center.

[Axeman33]

through RNH in the mix, CLB needs a center.

I dont see EDM trading RNH for a goalie unless it's a pretty well established one.

[hawkdog]

I dont see EDM trading RNH for a goalie unless it's a pretty well established one.

What about Caleb Jones, RNH for Merzlikins, Texier - as a framework