Edmonton Oilers

[The Comish]

Everyone back on the Mike Smith train!

Outside of his one brutal start, Smith is 4-0 with a 1.00 GAA and 0.967 SV%. I mean, he's ancient, but as long as he keeps putting up those numbers, giddy up. Will he keep it up? Of course not, but you take what you get from your back up tendy.

Solid defensive game and a good start. Need to win tomorrow.

Think that will be the last time I give the Cassie Campbell/Rick Ball combo any more air time though. I'll just delay the video broadcast and turn on the radio. Those two are atrocious.

Agreed about Cassie Campbell and Rick Ball. Yeesh.

[Axeman33]

I watched the game on Sportsnet and the play by play and color commentator was fine but the intermission crew was terrible. Matt Stajan has no place on TV and whho is Sarah Nurse? Terrible! I could do a smoother job reading the teleprompter than her. Again, not a broadcaster. I don't know if she's related to Darnell but I'm assuming she's another former hockey player or something became she definitely didn't go to college for a broadcast degree.
You've got TSN laying off quality and Sportsnet hiring garbage.

As far as the game goes, solid start from Smitty. Every time you hear Calgary it feels like two wins.

[hockeyrobot]

Pretty sure Sarah Nurse has played for Team Canada and is Darnell's sister. But ya... Stajan is a horrible choice.

[Dennis]

Pretty sure Sarah Nurse has played for Team Canada and is Darnell's sister. But ya... Stajan is a horrible choice.

WNBA player Kia Nurse is Darnell's sister. Sarah and Isaac Nurse are their cousins and Sarah is still active with Team Canada.

[hockeyrobot]

What are the chances Edmonton goes back to Smith tonight? Probably slim right?

[Axeman33]

What are the chances Edmonton goes back to Smith tonight? Probably slim right?

I fully expect Koskinen to start tonight

[doulos]

Weird game, but I'll take it. Not bad for a non-playoff team.

[hockeyrobot]

Mcdavid saw Matthews night and was just like ok I got this.

[metaldude26]

Huge 4-point pull over the Flames! Let's go!

[hockeyrobot]

Next two vs the Canucks are huge for them to really get some space in the division. Especially with 3 vs Toronto after that.

[Axeman33]

We're starting to see a similar, if not slightly improved Oilers team compared to last season now that Smith is back and able to take some of the load of Koskinen. Both goalies play better when the load isn't fully on one of them.

Now if they only had Klefbom to solidify that D.

[metaldude26]

Anyone else thoroughly impressed with the strides from Nurse? Part of it is the top line push he is getting, playing an inordinate amount of minutes with McDavid, who has been otherworldly. But I'm seeing a lot less of the shit that drove me completely insane.

He's using his speed/power/mobility combination to much better effect. He is finally using the middle to get out of trouble in the defensive zone, and has been a lot more active carrying to more dangerous areas of the offensive zone or jumping into the offense. He could still make some strides offensively, as everything is still to the perimeter, instead of getting to the real dangerous middle areas. Some of that could be systems, especially with regard to his pinches, but I also think there is still a lack of high-end puck handling to carry the puck middle on offense. Not that they need him to be a middle carrier on this team. That skillset is rare for a defenseman. I'd like to see him activating without the puck towards the middle a la Werenski/Heiskanen. You don't have to be a puck wizard to drive middle without the puck, but it opens things up a lot more for everyone if you can take that middle space when it's there, and he should have the mobility to get back through the middle to prevent the counter-attack.

The thing that's really catching my eye, however, is the lack of play-killing, empty-calorie panic shots from 30 feet on an unscreened goalie. Instead, I've seen a lot more poise. He's shooting for sticks, he's looking for open players, he's at least driving wide on the rush instead of bombing from far out.

If this is the Nurse you're getting you don't need Klefbom, although it would be nice to stack those two.

*

The Nurse we are seeing is a good reminder for how long it may take to get significant results from some of the other defensemen bubbling up for the Oilers. Nurse did two years of Junior after getting drafted in the 2013 lottery, plus five years in the NHL of slowly adding to his game to turn into what looks like is finally a legitimate top pairing defenseman. Now in year 6 at 26 is he delivering the full package he was drafted for. Quite the long road and not that dissimilar from the evolution that Klefbom took.

Bear, Jones, Bouchard, Broberg. The Oilers need these guys contributing all at once in order to stack the talent needed to really contend, but their best years may be years away.

[Axeman33]

I think Nurse is playing ALOT better now that he's not with Bear. To me, Bear is still a project that gets too much ice time and makes too many mistakes in his own end.

The thing that makes me nervous about Nurse is his next contract. Can they afford both Nurse and Nuge while improving the bottom six and goaltending?

[doulos]

I have to admit that I had sort of given up on Nurse looking like this by now. Very pleasantly surprised by what he's done this year so far. Hope he can keep it up - the team really needs it!

[metaldude26]

I think Nurse is playing ALOT better now that he's not with Bear. To me, Bear is still a project that gets too much ice time and makes too many mistakes in his own end.

The thing that makes me nervous about Nurse is his next contract. Can they afford both Nurse and Nuge while improving the bottom six and goaltending?

If we're looking two years out, it's tough to forecast because they have very little money that stretches beyond next season. Part of that is because of how pinched they were now forcing short-term plays with both restricted and unrestricted free agents.

Currently on the roster with money in 2022-23:

McDavid 12.5M
Draisaitl 8.5M
Neal 5.75M (His last year under contract so a likely buyout by then)
Zack Kassian $3.2M
Oscar Klefbom 4.167M (could be medically retired or expansion draft casualty)
Evan Bouchard 0.863M (plus bonuses)
Buyouts 2.25M

And that's it, that's the list.

One can likely assume that a handful of players on ELCs will be contributing then: Holloway, Lavoie, Broberg and maybe others

Putting those three on the roster puts you at $40M for 6F, 3D, 0G. Something akin to a blank canvas, but there are some guys who will be getting PAID by then

Yamamoto, Bear, Puljujarvi and one of Jones/Lagesson are safe bets to be retained (with one of Jones/Lagesson likely lost to expansion) because of their RFA status

I'd assume an average cost for each of them to land in the 4.5M range, and that might be on the cheap side.

Now we're at 8F, 5D, 0G for the cost of 58M

Let's say they continue to find a bargain basement 4th line and depth with Archibald types. Let's call it Haas, McCleod and Archibald for $5M.

Now we're at 11F, 5D, 0G for 63M

Ken Holland doesn't overspend on goaltending. He was willing to go money but not term for Markstrom, but would rather cobbled together mediocre goalies unless getting a top-5 option. It would be amazing if they developed an internal option. But let's say they keep Koskinen at 5M and bring in Jonathan Bernier for 2M.

That brings us to 70M needing 2F and 3D

What does the lineup look like?

? - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Holloway - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
Lavoie - ? - Kassian
McCleod - Haas - Archibald
Neal

? - Bouchard
Klefbom - Bear
Lagesson - ?
Broberg - ?

Koskinen - Bernier

*

That look suggests that retaining Nuge and Nurse or finding their replacements is essential. I think either could command 8M AAV. I was hoping that they could get Nurse for under that 8M mark this summer on a long-term deal. Maybe that's still possible. 7M AAV for either would be a boon.

Let's split the difference and call it 15M total for the two. That puts you at 85M needing a couple of rotational D and a 3C. So you likely have to cut somewhere to get under the cap assuming it stays at 81.5M.

Buying out Neal is easy. Fill his roster spot with a minimum guy, and you save 3.5M on the cap. We probably need to lose one of Klefbom/Lagesson since this is just the Kris Russell overpaid 3rd pairing all over again. Let's call it Klefbom. Fill the now 3 open D slots at 1M a pop and we're now at roughly 80M with only the 3C to fill. That likely means another bargain bin option but at least we have a functional roster.