#6 Overall Pick- Who do you take?

[One87]

You do understand that a defenseman that scores 80 points is worth more than a 90 point player? Give me Green and Perry over Kane and Weber in your league format any day.

Skot... find what the average point per positional player in your league is and figure out who has the best value.

I highly advise paying 20 bucks for HPG's subscription. It's worth it if you want to have ridiculous tools to make the right decision. Send me a PM if you decide to go that route.

I'm not knocking or doubting Green's worth/value as a d-man who will out produce many many forwards. I didn't take him b/c I doubt he'll out produce Getz, specifically in the PIM dept. Besides that, he doesn't take FOW's, which count in my league. I see Getz getting at least what Green will in pts if not 10-15 more..probably 30 more PIM's and similar SOG, both 200+. Green may edge him there, but I doubt it will be as big a gap as their PIM differential. All this aside, I totally get where you're coming from with his value and have no problem with someone taking him that high or passing. Again, I considered him at 6 and can honestly state that if Getz was gone, I would have taken him.

[Crazynuck]

Take Green or Luongo. Its that simple

[plug]

In reading this thread, I'm not sure if D men are split out or just part of the starters...

If D-men are split out, I think it has to be Green.

If they are not then if Stamkos or Backstrom somehow are available then go there...

After that, since it will be a keeper... I'd go with Rask, I just think the kid is that good.

[TOCanadafan]

The argument has been made time and time again... I will use Dobber point predictions: Let's assume
If you take Green who projects to 80 and you get left with the 15th - 20th best forward (depending on how many F vs other positions get taken) you will get a player with 81-85 pts. Total that, you get 160-165
If you think one of the remaining forwards will get 100 pts (could happen, but I think this is a stretch) then you would need your D to get 60-65 pts. Do you think there will be a D left over who will reach this when it's your time to pick again? I doubt it. A reasonable projection for the forward you will receive get at your first pick is 90-95 and the D on your second pick would be 50-55. You could be 25 pts behind the ball on your first two picks if you don't take Green.

[skotchek]

In reading this thread, I'm not sure if D men are split out or just part of the starters...

If D-men are split out, I think it has to be Green.

If they are not then if Stamkos or Backstrom somehow are available then go there...

After that, since it will be a keeper... I'd go with Rask, I just think the kid is that good.

Yes D-Men are split out... and i agree with you on rask i am 100% planning on drafting him and tim thomas as a backup. I think the current plan is to take Malkin if he falls to me (ESPN has him ranked at like 12!!!!), Backstrom or Stamkos in that order. If those guys are taken, then I am 100% going with Green with the #6 pick then the best available forward at #22 and then Rask with #28.

[skotchek]

The argument has been made time and time again... I will use Dobber point predictions: Let's assume
If you take Green who projects to 80 and you get left with the 15th - 20th best forward (depending on how many F vs other positions get taken) you will get a player with 81-85 pts. Total that, you get 160-165
If you think one of the remaining forwards will get 100 pts (could happen, but I think this is a stretch) then you would need your D to get 60-65 pts. Do you think there will be a D left over who will reach this when it's your time to pick again? I doubt it. A reasonable projection for the forward you will receive get at your first pick is 90-95 and the D on your second pick would be 50-55. You could be 25 pts behind the ball on your first two picks if you don't take Green.

That's the best argument I have heard yet!

[hockeyguy79]

Since it's going to turn keeper, i'd take Luongo 6th.

I fully agree with this thought.

[skotchek]

Well I think we've heard it all, with the same amount of certainty from those who suggested them:

1) Take the best forward possible. Suggestions included H. Sedin, Parise, Getzlaf if Backstrom, Stamkos or Malkin don't drop to #6.
2) Take Mike Green.
3) Take Luongo (I think Miller may have come up as well)

I think the reason why is because, like mentioned earlier, either way at #6 I am getting a great player. And it's not an automatic pick like I think #1-#5 should be...

[saywhaaaaat]

I think you have to distinguish between actual value and market value.

As others have indicated, Green's raw, statistical value in on par with the big three. In other words, if every manager was rocking an abacus and acting entirely rationally, he'd probably go 4th off the board. That said, he falls out of the top 10 in many public league drafts. There's a strong anti-defense bias in drafting (which is also reflected in certain comments in this thread).

In my league, Green will be snapped up early on. But if you expect dmen to "fall" a bit in your draft, and to be undervalued (as is somewhat common), then you should plan accordingly. If forwards and goalies will be snapped up quicker, then it's important that you get them before they're gone!

Assuming that it's a snake draft, the original poster picks 6th and 27th. So the question, in my mind, is what caliber of forwards and goalies will survive until the 27th pick.

Last year, only 20 forwards in all of hockey posted a PPG. If you could get a 100 point forward with pick six -- and I think you can (Ovie, Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Backstrom and Sedins, in my mind) -- it may be worthwhile to do so.

It definitely depends on your league, but I'd probably grab a stellar forward.

[skotchek]

I think you have to distinguish between actual value and market value.

As others have indicated, Green's raw, statistical value in on par with the big three. In other words, if every manager was rocking an abacus and acting entirely rationally, he'd probably go 4th off the board. That said, he falls out of the top 10 in many public league drafts. There's a strong anti-defense bias in drafting (which is also reflected in certain comments in this thread).

In my league, Green will be snapped up early on. But if you expect dmen to "fall" a bit in your draft, and to be undervalued (as is somewhat common), then you should plan accordingly. If forwards and goalies will be snapped up quicker, then it's important that you get them before they're gone!

Assuming that it's a snake draft, the original poster picks 6th and 27th. So the question, in my mind, is what caliber of forwards and goalies will survive until the 27th pick.

Last year, only 20 forwards in all of hockey posted a PPG. If you could get a 100 point forward with pick six -- and I think you can (Ovie, Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Backstrom and Sedins, in my mind) -- it may be worthwhile to do so.

It definitely depends on your league, but I'd probably grab a stellar forward.

Lol about the abacus. By the 27th pick I would assume the "big 3" defensemen Green, Keith, Doughty will be gone and I will probably be able to snap up Boyle. I also think by 27 all "elite" forwards will be gone and I will be picking from M. Richards, B. Richards, Zetterberg, Hossa, St.Louis, Lecavalier which isn't too bad either.

So it comes down to:

Green & M. Richards (or the others previously mentioned)
vs.
H. Sedin (or the player with the most points predicted by Dobber available) & Boyle.

Green and Richards should get 80 points each= 160 total
H. Sedin should get 90 and Boyle should get 55= 145 total

Looking at it this way, and knowing the best available forward at 27 will be someone still "good" I am leaning towards Green at pick #6.

[One87]

Lol about the abacus. By the 27th pick I would assume the "big 3" defensemen Green, Keith, Doughty will be gone and I will probably be able to snap up Boyle. I also think by 27 all "elite" forwards will be gone and I will be picking from M. Richards, B. Richards, Zetterberg, Hossa, St.Louis, Lecavalier which isn't too bad either.

So it comes down to:

Green & M. Richards (or the others previously mentioned)
vs.
H. Sedin (or the player with the most points predicted by Dobber available) & Boyle.

Green and Richards should get 80 points each= 160 total
H. Sedin should get 90 and Boyle should get 55= 145 total

Looking at it this way, and knowing the best available forward at 27 will be someone still "good" I am leaning towards Green at pick #6.

I considered a Sedin at 6, but passed because I'm in a Dynasty. If it was a 1 yr, I could easily see that, but in a keeper, age should also factor in with production. I'd rather pick Green before either Sedin. The Sedins are 29, Green is about to be 25 (Oct). As I stated earlier, I took Getz who turned 25 in May. IMO, with the first pick, you should target a guy who is on the younger side of 30, not fast approaching.

[JD88]

I go with Green all the way regardless if its keeper or not! If Backstrom is there though he is your man!!!

[skotchek]

I go with Green all the way regardless if its keeper or not! If Backstrom is there though he is your man!!!

I agree, if Backstrom is there I am taking him. Too good of a player to pass up. I think though its going to go in this order- Ov, Crosby, Malkin, Backstrom, Stamkos and then my #6 pick. If any of the first 4 drop to me they're being picked. I would still take Green over Stamkos.

[One87]

I agree, if Backstrom is there I am taking him. Too good of a player to pass up. I think though its going to go in this order- Ov, Crosby, Malkin, Backstrom, Stamkos and then my #6 pick. If any of the first 4 drop to me they're being picked. I would still take Green over Stamkos.

Those were the exact 5 taken in my draft: 1. OV 2. Crosby 3. Stamkos 4. Backstrom 5. Malkin.

[skotchek]

Those were the exact 5 taken in my draft: 1. OV 2. Crosby 3. Stamkos 4. Backstrom 5. Malkin.

I just cant see how people draft Stamkos before Backstrom and Malkin in any format...