#6 Overall Pick- Who do you take?

[One87]

I just cant see how people draft Stamkos before Backstrom and Malkin in any format...

Stamkos before Backstrom was a head scratcher to me; I would select Backstrom before Stamkos any day. To me that's as obvious as it is for others to take Green at 6. He went 8th or 9th in my league. And it is true that Doughty and Keith were taken after rd1, on the backend of the serpentine draft.

[saywhaaaaat]

Stamkos before Backstrom was a head scratcher to me; I would select Backstrom before Stamkos any day. To me that's as obvious as it is for others to take Green at 6. He went 8th or 9th in my league. And it is true that Doughty and Keith were taken after rd1, on the backend of the serpentine draft.

Goals are harder to come by. I like Backstrom, but I'd take the 50+ goal scorer over the assist machine.

[saywhaaaaat]

Lol about the abacus. By the 27th pick I would assume the "big 3" defensemen Green, Keith, Doughty will be gone and I will probably be able to snap up Boyle. I also think by 27 all "elite" forwards will be gone and I will be picking from M. Richards, B. Richards, Zetterberg, Hossa, St.Louis, Lecavalier which isn't too bad either.

So it comes down to:

Green & M. Richards (or the others previously mentioned)
vs.
H. Sedin (or the player with the most points predicted by Dobber available) & Boyle.

Green and Richards should get 80 points each= 160 total
H. Sedin should get 90 and Boyle should get 55= 145 total

Looking at it this way, and knowing the best available forward at 27 will be someone still "good" I am leaning towards Green at pick #6.

I'd quibble with the numbers a bit.

I see Richards at 80 and Green at 75, H Sedin at 95 and Boyle at 60. So I'd have them neck and neck. Definitely very, very close either way.

So yes, very lockstep in terms of expected point value. But to me, though, the key is: which of those guys can post 15-20 points MORE than you're estimating? In other words, when anticipated production is a wash (or near wash), who has more upside?

You have Mike Richards at 80. Any hope for 100? lol, no.
You have Boyle at 55. Will he hit 75? Again, no.
Will Green threaten 100? Nope.
Will Sedin, who you peg at 90, get 110? Well, he did it last year, so definitely, definitely possible.

That's where it comes down to for me. I see them as dead even, you give a slight bump to Green/Richards. But I struggle to see the upside or best case scenario on the Green end of a deal like this. Even in a keeper, who knows what the Caps might do with another frustrating exit?

[saywhaaaaat]

Lol about the abacus. By the 27th pick I would assume the "big 3" defensemen Green, Keith, Doughty will be gone and I will probably be able to snap up Boyle. I also think by 27 all "elite" forwards will be gone and I will be picking from M. Richards, B. Richards, Zetterberg, Hossa, St.Louis, Lecavalier which isn't too bad either.

So it comes down to:

Green & M. Richards (or the others previously mentioned)
vs.
H. Sedin (or the player with the most points predicted by Dobber available) & Boyle.

Green and Richards should get 80 points each= 160 total
H. Sedin should get 90 and Boyle should get 55= 145 total

Looking at it this way, and knowing the best available forward at 27 will be someone still "good" I am leaning towards Green at pick #6.

Also, I think you slightly missed my point on the "market value v. actual value" thing. You have Green/Richards as having slightly more actual value than HSedin/Boyle (I have them as a wash). Even if you're right, I think that many managers undervalue dmen.

The consequence is that, in many leagues, you can get more via trade for a 100 point forward than you could for ANY defenseman -- including Green.

I offered Heatley for Green last season in my league, and was rebuffed by the Green owner. Good call on his part, in terms of actual value. What's interesting, though, is that the Green owner was mocked by other GMs for rejecting the deal. In other words, many GMs in the league saw Heatley as more valuable than Green.

They're wrong, but if your league includes trades, then you have to base decisions around market value, as well.

[One87]

Goals are harder to come by. I like Backstrom, but I'd take the 50+ goal scorer over the assist machine.

I can respect that G's are harder to come by, but i'd like to see Stamkos get 50 more than once before I automatically pencil him in for 50 annually. I don't doubt Stamkos' talent, but I don't know if he'll have a repeat. 24G of his 51 came on the PP. Kudos to him for beeing that much of a scorer. I'm just wondering if its feasible to expect that many G again on a PP? We'll surely see. He is no doubt a sniper. Both players are studs. I personally prefer Backstrom's supporting cast, which I believe increases his odds off consistently repeating his performances. JMO.

[skotchek]

Also, I think you slightly missed my point on the "market value v. actual value" thing. You have Green/Richards as having slightly more actual value than HSedin/Boyle (I have them as a wash). Even if you're right, I think that many managers undervalue dmen.

The consequence is that, in many leagues, you can get more via trade for a 100 point forward than you could for ANY defenseman -- including Green.

I offered Heatley for Green last season in my league, and was rebuffed by the Green owner. Good call on his part, in terms of actual value. What's interesting, though, is that the Green owner was mocked by other GMs for rejecting the deal. In other words, many GMs in the league saw Heatley as more valuable than Green.

They're wrong, but if your league includes trades, then you have to base decisions around market value, as well.

Market value in my league, and I think in most, would value a 10-20 ranked offensemen (Staal, Heatley, Parise, Kane, Datsyuk, Spezza) as equivalent or more valuable then Green. I don't exactly agree because Green is dominant in his position whereas those mentioned above aren't. They are great, but are they rare? Not really. So I think in order to NOT draft Green, there needs to be a rare offensemen capable of 100 points (like you said) available to me. I think that those players, and those only should be taken before Green. Thoughts?

[One87]

Market value in my league, and I think in most, would value a 10-20 ranked offensemen (Staal, Heatley, Parise, Kane, Datsyuk, Spezza) as equivalent or more valuable then Green. I don't exactly agree because Green is dominant in his position whereas those mentioned above aren't. They are great, but are they rare? Not really. So I think in order to NOT draft Green, there needs to be a rare offensemen capable of 100 points (like you said) available to me. I think that those players, and those only should be taken before Green. Thoughts?

That was my thinking on the matter.I arrived at a point thinking: At worst, Getz is a ppg and pim pg player. To me, those are rare. Imo, he's capable of being more. In 07: 77 Games, 24G,58A - 82pts,94PIM.
08: 81 Games, 25G,66A - 91pts 121 PIM. Last yr his season was cut short by injury 09: 66 Games, 19G, 50A - 69pts 79PIM

For me, I couldn't pick Green over Getz. They're the same age and as rare a find Green is for a Dman, I found Getz' scoring ability and PIM's more valuable and rare in its own respect. The FOW cat tipped the scales further for me.

I get Green's value, but the draft doesn't end after picking him. You can have the best scoring Dman on your team and still lose. JMO. But that doesn't mean he's not worthy. If he works for you take him. Just hit a homerun with the pick, which I am sure you will!

[skotchek]

I think after all this discussion, Im just going to draft Jon Sim at #6

[The Comish]

Another vote for Green at #6.

[One87]

I think after all this discussion, Im just going to draft Jon Sim at #6

LOL..nice.

[737power]

i vote for green at #6 too, he could outscore the next dman by 20 points

[saywhaaaaat]

Market value in my league, and I think in most, would value a 10-20 ranked offensemen (Staal, Heatley, Parise, Kane, Datsyuk, Spezza) as equivalent or more valuable then Green. I don't exactly agree because Green is dominant in his position whereas those mentioned above aren't.

This is my entire point. If your league members value Heatley or Staal over Green, don't draft Green. Draft Heatley or Staal and then trade him for Green+. Get it?

To me, the draft is about building the biggest bankroll in terms of perceived value, not getting the best player.

[skotchek]

This is my entire point. If your league members value Heatley or Staal over Green, don't draft Green. Draft Heatley or Staal and then trade him for Green+. Get it?

To me, the draft is about building the biggest bankroll in terms of perceived value, not getting the best player.

I see what your saying but that seems a little too risky to me. For instance, what are you REALLY going to get as the "plus" component to any trade? If I draft Kane over Green and offer the Green owner a trade: Kane for Green and let's say Arnott, I'll be laughed at. There are a million scenarios and its not worth going through each one, but I would rather take the best player available at the time and not the best perceived player. Perception changes more often then the quality of a player does.

[Renegade]

As far as value is concerned, Green is top 5. You will not get Green if you offer Heatley. At least not in my leagues.

Green has age, skill, the team, and players that will score for the next decade. He's the most valuable defenseman out there and well worth 6th.