#6 Overall Pick- Who do you take?

[skotchek]

Hi,
I am in a 16 team HTH league which is going to be a keeper league after this year (only 3 players will be allowed to be kept). Almost all stat categories are going to be used, goalie points account for 25% of points.

In my opinion picks 1, 2 & 3 are going to be Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin. Next I predict Stamkos and Backstrom. So that leaves me in a great position to take Stamkos or Backstrom if they aren't taken before me, or D Sedin, H Sedin, Parise, Miller, Luongo, Green, Kane or Heatley.

What would you do? Go after a forward, take the best D man Green or take a 1a elite goalie?

Right now I am leaning towards H. Sedin or Parise. Whats your thoughts?

[AwkwardMongoose]

If you have to specify LW and RW, I'm a big fan of Parise. If not, probably Green. The good news is, you're going to get a great player no matter what.

[AwkwardMongoose]

Obviously I mean if Backstrom or Stamkos don't fall. If either do, grab them and run.

[skotchek]

the league doesnt specify foward positions, you get 9 fowards, 1 utility and 5 bench posisitions. so the general concensus is to take stamkos or backstrom if they fall to #6 which i agree with.

And if they don't fall to #6 i should i gun for parise, heatley or sedins. i love mike green but don't know if its wise to take him so early on...

[Renegade]

You take Green. Plain and simple...If Green drops to you, you have to take him. Research the forum for why I believe this way.

Here is how it could go

OV
Crosby
Malkin
Backstrom
Stamkos/Green/Luongo
Sedins
Parise

[skotchek]

Hi thanks for the feedback. I've been doing plenty of mock drafts on ESPN and Green hasn't gone until the 8-12 pick usually for some reason. If I take Green with the 6th pick my next pick in the second round is #26 and hopefully there will still be a good offenseman still available.

[finnys_fanatsy]

tough call...

what year of the league is this? that would be a good indicator of how d-men went in the past. if the d-men are sought out high in the draft then i'd definitly go with green. if not then i would be lookin at parise or even kane.

[Renegade]

Hi thanks for the feedback. I've been doing plenty of mock drafts on ESPN and Green hasn't gone until the 8-12 pick usually for some reason. If I take Green with the 6th pick my next pick in the second round is #26 and hopefully there will still be a good offenseman still available.

There will still be some good offensemen around 26.

Here is the deal with Green. He's a potential 80 point defenseman. I don't need to say anything more. Let me break down what this means:

Parise- 82 points last year
P.Kane- 88 points last year
Mike Green- 76 points last year

I'm assuming this is 12 forwards, 6 defenseman, 2 goalies. You have less defenseman than forwards which means you will need to put some quality players in those limited spots. Dobber and Angus have preached (I totally agree) that Green would be a solid argument for top 3 fantasy producer in hockey (over Malkin).

There are many forwards that put up 80+. Right now, there is only one defenseman that has the potential to put up 80. You draft Green. You only trade him for Ovechkin or Crosby because he's worth that much. Especially in a keeper league where you only keep 3!

[skotchek]

Finny- its a second year league and for the first time its H2H (last year it was roto) and with 3 keepers. I don't think D will go that high, I foresee Ov,Crosby,Malkin, Stamkos, Backstrom, Parise and maybe a few more elite fowards before Green. If I wait till my second round pick for a D man Green will be gone and almost certainly Keith and Doughty, leaving Pronger and Boyle as the next possible choices.

Renegade- I think you and all the others suggesting Green if he's available is the right idea. No other D man is a PPG player, and with 6 assigned D man spots (and more on the bench if needed), I get more bang for my buck with picking Green as I can fill in the offense with more players.

But here's my next question, say Green is available (which I suspect he is) and I take him at #6, do I go take a player like Perry if he's available at #22, or go for a top end goalie (outside the top 2- Miller and Luongo) like say Brodeur? Goalie points account for 25 percent of league points.

I'm leaning towards going for a scorer, what do you think?

[NYR9394]

Since it's going to turn keeper, i'd take Luongo 6th.

[WildCard2180]

I'd be highly against taking Green so early. Parise, H. Sedin, and Kane should all easily out-produce Green in point production.

Miller and Luongo are arguably more valuable as well.

So, take Stamkos or Backstrom if either one falls to you, but take either Parise or H. Sedin if they don't fall to you.

[skotchek]

Ahhh!!! That was my original plan; go for the elite scorer. I think this is probably a dilemma for a lot of GMs, after the first round we know who to take but that all important first pick is very tricky.

Watch either Backstrom or Stamkos fall to #6 or Green being taken sooner (unlikely) making this all completely moot!

I know this for sure, I don't think I'm going to take an elite goalie, I am going to aim for Rinne or Bryzgalov as my #1 and hope they have good years.

[One87]

I had the 6th pick overall and decided to pass on Green and the elite goalie. As much as I like Green, I couldn't pass on a player(s) I felt would out produce him. I was tempted to take Parise, but ended up going with Getzlaf. What sold me with taking him is that he'll get you a ppg, likely more as well as a PIM per game or more. IMO, he's capable of 85-90pts (20-25G, 60+A) with about the same PIM, possibly 100, 100+ PIM. Good luck!

[Renegade]

As much as I like Green, I couldn't pass on a player(s) I felt would out produce him.

You do understand that a defenseman that scores 80 points is worth more than a 90 point player? Give me Green and Perry over Kane and Weber in your league format any day.

Skot... find what the average point per positional player in your league is and figure out who has the best value.

I highly advise paying 20 bucks for HPG's subscription. It's worth it if you want to have ridiculous tools to make the right decision. Send me a PM if you decide to go that route.

[WestCoastSteez]

Don't overlook Luongo. With all of the moves the Canucks made this season, he is poised to be the best fantasy tender for the next 5 years.

-cheers