Crosby Traded, How Did I Do?

[PrairieDog]

chief, here is what you say you want in that other thread:

1. A goalie (not a time-splitter)
2. A top 5 forward
3. Two top 75-80 forwards
4. Two high rated prospects
5. Two high draft picks

And here's what you got:
1. A goalie
2. A top 40 forward (rated #36)
3. A throw-in d-man (rated #54)
4. Two decent prospects.

There's a happy middle ground there, you went from one end of the spectrum (too much) to the other (not enough).

IMO a good return on Crosby and Elliott and picks would be:

1 - a young top-10 forward (Getzlaf, Kovalchuk level)
2 - a young top-20 forward (Stastny, Neal, level)
3 - a young top-20 d-man (Yandle level)
4 - a top-ten prospect (Turris, Shattenkirk level)
5 - a top 15 goalie (Anderson, Ward level)
6 - a decent draft pick or two

I have never owned one of the big 3 in a keeper, or even tried to trade for one, but IMO this is about the return you should be looking for. What incentive or point is there to moving him if you aren't going to give your team a serious upgrade? If the market in your league for a guy like Crosby is as low as the return you got, then the right move would have been no move at all.

But hey, don't beat yourself up too much - we have all made bad trades and you have to learn from it. Its not like you got spare parts back, you got some good players, so just put it behind you and plan around what you have.

[Superchief]

""IMO a good return on Crosby and Elliott and picks would be:

1 - a young top-10 forward (Getzlaf, Kovalchuk level)
2 - a young top-20 forward (Stastny, Neal, level)
3 - a young top-20 d-man (Yandle level)
4 - a top-ten prospect (Turris, Shattenkirk level)
5 - a top 15 goalie (Anderson, Ward level)
6 - a decent draft pick or two""

I tried to get this a month ago but I heard many complaints that was too much.

[PrairieDog]

""IMO a good return on Crosby and Elliott and picks would be:

1 - a young top-10 forward (Getzlaf, Kovalchuk level)
2 - a young top-20 forward (Stastny, Neal, level)
3 - a young top-20 d-man (Yandle level)
4 - a top-ten prospect (Turris, Shattenkirk level)
5 - a top 15 goalie (Anderson, Ward level)
6 - a decent draft pick or two""

I tried to get this a month ago but I heard many complaints that was too much.

Then like I said, if you can't get good value, no move at all is the best option.

[WestCoastSteez]

My first reaction was, this is a joke of a trade. But the more I look at it, the more im swinging the other way.

Stastny is an obvious downgrade from Crosby. However in all honesty, I am not sure the tandem of Stastny/Bryzgalov is any worse than Elliot/Crosby. Turris and Tarasenko are great prospects, but they need to establish themselves as steady 75 point players to justify this deal.

Also, before I can really analyze it any further, it would help to know more details about your league.

What type of league is it (H2H, roto, points etc ), how many teams are in it, how many keepers, what categories score, what positions are weighted heavily, what kind of players can be taken with a 2nd/3rd round selection ?

These questions need to be answered before this trade can fully be broken down.

Until they are, I am not sure it is fair to just post "this trade blows" and offer no insight/help.

-cheers

On a side note, I dont know if my league just trades differently then everyone else. But there is no way I would do a deal for Crosby where 2/3 major pieces coming back are Alfreddson and St.Louis (in response to a reply earlier in the thread). I would accept this Stastny deal waay before that one. Alfreddson's PPG days are behind him and St.Louis is 35. Its no wonder the GM with Crosby rejected it.

[Superchief]

My first reaction was, this is a joke of a trade. But the more I look at it, the more im swinging the other way.

Stastny is an obvious downgrade from Crosby. However in all honesty, I am not sure the tandem of Stastny/Bryzgalov is any worse than Elliot/Crosby. Turris and Tarasenko are great prospects, but they need to establish themselves as steady 75 point players to justify this deal.

Also, before I can really analyze it any further, it would help to know more details about your league.

What type of league is it (H2H, roto, points etc ), how many teams are in it, how many keepers, what categories score, what positions are weighted heavily, what kind of players can be taken with a 2nd/3rd round selection ?

This questions need to be answered before this trade can fully be broken down.

-cheers

Lots of questions:

What type of league is it (H2H, roto, points etc )?
roto

How many teams are in it?
14

How many keepers?
28 pros (over 26 games played I believe), prospects for four years until you are forced to put them on your pro roster (unless you start them earlier of course).

What categories score?
Forwards & D
Goal- 1
Assist - 1
Penalty Minute - 0.1
Shot - 0.05
Shoot out Goal - 1
Plus/Minus (+0.2 or -0.2)
Goalies
Goal - 10
Assist - 2
Penalty Minute - 0.1
Win - 2
Shutout - 3

what positions are weighted heavily?
I would say top six forwards and offensive-style Dmen.

What kind of players can be taken with a 2nd/3rd round selection?
First three selections from round2 in 2010: Jaden Schwartz, Austin Watson, Derek Stepan
First three selections from round3 in 2010: Jussi Rynnas, Dylan McIlrath, Matt Hackett
First three selections from round2 in 2009: Tom Wandell, Dmitri Kugryshev, Tyler Bozak
First three selections from round3 in 2009: Calvin de Haan, Toni Rajala, Richard Panik

[vanfan]

Wow, Crosby is gold. I see you upgraded in some areas but probably could've made other trades and not let Crosby go.

Live and learn. Players like Crosby are not replaceable in a keeper league without a ransom of players coming back in my opinion.

Perhaps you were bored and just needed some trade action?

[Superchief]

I asked for a ransom and no one was willing to go along.
What's done is done.

[Kickerz]

SuperChief

A good peice of advice when dealing a big name is to do it slowly. More often than not, the people trading FOR the big name will be more eager and would like to the deal quicker. When you move a big name, and you take you time, you allow intersted parties to ponder whether they want in on the action or not. This is different from "milking the cow", but it allows you the most possibilities and also provides with you a good indication of what other are willing to offer you.

On the topic related not to this trade but to other elements of the thread; I do not understand why anyone would want to put any value on prospects in any deal of this magnitude. Whenever you are trading elite players the last thing I would want to do is to be paid with prospects. I trade A LOT in ALL of my leagues. I usually send out 5-6 deals a day, and do an average of AT LEAST a major trade a week. That being said, there are always going to be teams that require production "right now". While those teams on multiple year rebuilds can be much more patient and do not need prospects "right now".

Also, I have to mention that despite differences in league formats, I cannot fathom ever trading quality producers of any age for prospects alone. I commented earlier in the thread that I had offered Roberto Luongo, St. Louis, Alfreddsson, and 1 st round pick for Crosby and was rejected. The responses that people would rather be offered Stastny, Bryz and prospects instead alarmed and shocked me. And this is why. There is no way I would trade Alfredsson or Louis for any sort of prospect. It does not make sense. Proven, consistent production now is always worth more than potential production later. In fact, I gave up Mueller, a 1st and 2nd round pick this year just to get St.Louis. Whenever you are trading away a quality known producer make sure you cover your basis in the trade. For example. If I was trading away Hossa, there is no way I would accept Jamie Benn and a bunch of "Filatov" like prospects for him. At the very least I would expect a replacement, a "Hemsky" type of player, and than extras to make it worth my while. If you were in a rebuild, than I would ask for a "Giroux" and than a draft pick as well. People going for a win, need those precious points. The market is there. And the market will always be based on supply and demand.

The last thing I would like to say, and SuperChief, this is not meant to be directed to you. Whenever you are trading an elite player, do not seek out a "fair" deal. I was offered Marleau, E, Johnsson, and M. Savard for Malkin earlier this year. It was rejected almost instantly. I did throw back a counter to realign expectations. That counter looked like this: Tavares, Parise, Doughty and Marleau. Was there some wiggle room there, possibly. But that aligns expectations properly. Another example of this was an offer of P. Kane and a pick for Ovechkin. When you crunch the #'s you know that sort of deal never work out in your favor. I countered with an offer of P. Kane, Backstrom, and Heatly. Whenever you are dealing out the best player in a deal, ENSURE you are getting what you WANT in return or sit on the player and be happy that at the end of the day that (Elite player's name) is on our team.

[WestCoastSteez]

Thanks for the info, I will try to break this down starting with the prospects.

Turris and Tarasenko are miles ahead of whomever you would have grabbed with your picks. I like this upgrade. It may take a few years to show, but these two guys will be good nhl'ers and solid producers for your team. An added bonus is being able to stash Tarasenko on your prospect roster.

Quincey, while no Mike Green, is still nothing to scoff at. He had a bit of a down year last season, with modest improvement, he is a solid depth defense man for your team. He is not a game breaker, but does have value in a deep league such as yours.

However, everything mentioned above is largely irrelevant. As Kickerz mentioned, prospects' value is greatly reduced when you begin dealing with players like Crosby, Stastny, and Bryzgalov. So, comparing the major components of the trade we get (point totals do not include shootout goals, or goalie assits/pims)

Stastny: 94.35 pts
Bryzgalov: 108 pts
Total: 202.35

Crosby: 134 pts
Elliot: 73 pts
Total: 207 pts

From this we can deduce a few things. For one, this trade is a lot more lopsided than it appears based on these points. Elliot did not play a full season as the starter, he had to earn his job through his play. With more games started and Ottawa seemingly headed in the right direction, his point totals should climb into the 80's. Also, Bryzgalov (as did the Coyotes in general) played well above expectations. Maybe this was simply because expectations were so low, but expecting a duplicate season in the desert is like expecting Ballsille to get invited to a sleepover at the Bettmen house. I would say a fair projection for Bryzgalov would be in the 95-100 point range.

One important thing this points breakdown showed me was the importance on skaters, or lack of importance placed on goalies. Bryzgalov had the second best fantasy season from a goaltender last year, but contributed less total fantasy points than Crosby had real points. Having a good goaltender is still very important, especially because of the size of your league, but your points system seems skewed towards scoring skaters, not passing skaters or goalies.

Overall, it is not the end of the world. It is true, you lost this trade. I dont think a reasonable argument can be made against that. While you lost in the exchange of core components, you easily won in the exchange of peripheral components. What is done is done, but several good lessons can be taken from this moving forward.

It seems like you should always be on the lookout for an elite goal scorer. If you can swing a trade for one, do it.
Don't trade away your best players. From the looks of your roster, it appears you are in the midst of a rebuild. Trading players like Crosby for depth is not the proper way to accomplish this. With Crosby(or now Stastny, as your best forward) in the lineup you at least of some tangible asset. A player who can produce now, and produce in bunches. When rebuilding, try to target prospects who are on the verge of making the show, or on the verge of breaking out in the show. (eg. Turris is a good example in the first case, a guy like Okposo in the second case). Tarasenko, while more valuable than the picks you gave up, will not contribute any meaningful points to your team for probably 3-5 years, and as such, is barely worth mentioning in this trade at all.

While you definitely gave up the best player, you gained some good depth, plugged a couple top tier prospects into the pipeline, and brought in a top 5 fantasy goaltender. Since the deal is done, it is important to take away the positives.

-cheers

[Superchief]

Good advise Kickerz. I will remember it.

[Bomm Bastic]

Then like I said, if you can't get good value, no move at all is the best option.

Exactly. One of the ironies of owning one of the big 3 - nearly untradeable for what they're worth.

[Superchief]

Thanks, W.C.S. I will remember what you have said.

I guess moving him was probably bad but my next best assets are the Johnson and Subban and I didn't want to move them.

[WestCoastSteez]

yea that was smart, in a pool as deep as yours having a good core of d-men will be integral to success.

-cheers

[rabidprairiedog]

i think you could have thrown it out there that you'd be open to decent offers for crosby and i think you would have made out a little better. i think you'd have been surprised at what other GMs might have offered up.

were there any goalies available in the draft?

while you tried to address some needs, i don't think you put yourself in a better position to win (either now or in the future). holding onto the young d-men won't count for much if the other pieces in the trade don't pan out and you don't have any firepower up front. too many "ifs".

[AwkwardMongoose]

We've all made bad trades. Last year I traded Bryz AND Heatley for Ward, Weber and a 3rd round pick. It was at the start of the year when Ward seemed elite, and Bryz was just an 8th round pick. Oops. That alone lost me my league, probably a worse trade than yours.