How many points is Claude Giroux going to get

[dmvincent]

I just think there is too much depth on the Flyers for Giroux to start producing big time numbers.
I say 55-60
Lets call it 28 G-27 A

[sportsfan23454]

well if he is ranked all the way back at 100 then isn't it still a good idea to get him. because isn't there still a chance he cold blow up big? thehockeynews said that he is a player to get. they projected his points at 69.

[Raja]

Good discussion guys.

Looking at Dobbers guide, he projects 267 goals this year, to be more conservative, I'll use the 236 they had last year.

While it isn't likely, technically every single goal can have 2 assists, which in turn would mean every goal provides 3 points for the team. 708 points for the entire team in this case.
P (G)
Carter 80 (36)
Richards 80 (31)
Briere 76 (27)
Giroux 60 (22)
Pronger 55 (10)
Zherdev 50 (20)
Leino 44 (15)
Hartnell 45 (19)
JVR 45 (18)
Timonen 38 (5)
Carle 35 (5)
Coburn 30 (5)
Total 638 (213)

These are the major players in the top 9 (-carcillo), as well as top 4 defense. That leaves 70 points (23 goals) for 4th line, and the bottom D pairing. Not that unreasonable. Use higher numbers like Dobber projects and there's even more leeway for single assist/unassisted goals.

This also takes into account assuming each player plays 82 games. If injured, the 3rd line will fit in easily for the top 6, and replace their points. However the 3rd liners points are "assigned" to whoever is replacing them, and the most likely won't step up to the same level, creating more "free" points to make up for not every single goal having 2 assists.

Like I said, it isn't that likely, but it isn't that unreasonable either.

[mister_mcgoo]

see this is why I cleverly said 50-60 right off the bat, now I'm right for both sides of the argument

I dunno wtf is going on Gotlaid but this is the 3rd big discussion in a month that I am in more or less complete agreement with you...I would check that your affairs are in order, this may very well be the coming of the apocalypse.

This is one of the biggest traps that fantasy hockey prognosticators fall into, they do not correctly account for all the points. Even Dobber is guilty of this in his guide if you add up all the points for a given team it bears little resemblance to reality. Just because you have 3 guys on a team that can score 50 goals doesn't mean they're all gonna get you 50, it just doesn't work that way. If one guy scores, it means that the other guy didn't.

Team totals tend to be relatively stable unless the roster changes appreciably...that's why the Caps now score 80-100 goals more per season than they did a 5-10 years ago, adding Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green tends to do that for a roster Let me throw some raw numbers at this to break it down:

-239 is average number of goals an NHL team will score in a given year (this is based off the past 5 seasons).
-Philly has been a little above average over the same period (246)
-for every goal scored in the league, about 1.7 assists are recorded, so do the math, that's just a hair above 8ppg that the Flyers are likely to score this year (or 664 total pts that you have to play wth...give or take a few of course)
-so when you make your projections think really hard who is a lock for a given number of points and then factor off of that...like Pronger will likely get 50 of those no problem, Timmo will get another 40, the rest of the D maybe 60-70, that's already 150-160 pts gone just to the D so you're already down to around 500...give the grunts 80 pts, they gotta eat too and you're down to 420 to be split amongst Richards, Carter, Briere, Giroux, Leino, Hartnell and JVR. WildCard, your LOW end for those guys was 460 so I'm not inclined to beleive that's the way its going to play out...something has to give somewhere, if Giroux scores 60, its to someone else's detriment and everybody wants their ice time. The reality of Philly is that they've become very much like the teams that the Habs have been rolling out the past decade or so, there are no standout offensive superstars on the team that are going to score ppg or above, the scoring gets spread out across the lines much more and you get a distribution where 3 guys get 70 pts, 3 get 50-60, 3 get 40 etc. Its an awesome team with great talent but what works in the real world NHL is not always the best thing for fantasy poolsters and this is a perfect example

[Czechline]

The ironic thing that may need to happen to get Giroux's totals up is an injury to one of the top guys. Not only may it help insure he gets on a better scoring line, but also more mins/game at even strength and PP.

That's how deep Philly is at 'O', you got 2-3 guys that will step up to fill in any scoring gap.

[Maaaasquito]

well if he is ranked all the way back at 100 then isn't it still a good idea to get him. because isn't there still a chance he cold blow up big? thehockeynews said that he is a player to get. they projected his points at 69.

See to me that's another upside projection... can he get it, YES he can!, am I going to head into the season thinking he's guaranteed that he's gonna hit that, NO WAY!

If you think he's a 69 point player, you're going to draft him early probably round 4-5 in most Yahoo! leagues... At that slot I'm going to draft someone I know will give me a 98% chance to get 70 points, not someone with a 25% chance...

[Maaaasquito]

see this is why I cleverly said 50-60 right off the bat, now I'm right for both sides of the argument

I dunno wtf is going on Gotlaid but this is the 3rd big discussion in a month that I am in more or less complete agreement with you...I would check that your affairs are in order, this may very well be the coming of the apocalypse.

This is one of the biggest traps that fantasy hockey prognosticators fall into, they do not correctly account for all the points. Even Dobber is guilty of this in his guide if you add up all the points for a given team it bears little resemblance to reality. Just because you have 3 guys on a team that can score 50 goals doesn't mean they're all gonna get you 50, it just doesn't work that way. If one guy scores, it means that the other guy didn't.

Team totals tend to be relatively stable unless the roster changes appreciably...that's why the Caps now score 80-100 goals more per season than they did a 5-10 years ago, adding Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin and Green tends to do that for a roster Let me throw some raw numbers at this to break it down:

-239 is average number of goals an NHL team will score in a given year (this is based off the past 5 seasons).
-Philly has been a little above average over the same period (246)
-for every goal scored in the league, about 1.7 assists are recorded, so do the math, that's just a hair above 8ppg that the Flyers are likely to score this year (or 664 total pts that you have to play wth...give or take a few of course)
-so when you make your projections think really hard who is a lock for a given number of points and then factor off of that...like Pronger will likely get 50 of those no problem, Timmo will get another 40, the rest of the D maybe 60-70, that's already 150-160 pts gone just to the D so you're already down to around 500...give the grunts 80 pts, they gotta eat too and you're down to 420 to be split amongst Richards, Carter, Briere, Giroux, Leino, Hartnell and JVR. WildCard, your LOW end for those guys was 460 so I'm not inclined to beleive that's the way its going to play out...something has to give somewhere, if Giroux scores 60, its to someone else's detriment and everybody wants their ice time. The reality of Philly is that they've become very much like the teams that the Habs have been rolling out the past decade or so, there are no standout offensive superstars on the team that are going to score ppg or above, the scoring gets spread out across the lines much more and you get a distribution where 3 guys get 70 pts, 3 get 50-60, 3 get 40 etc. Its an awesome team with great talent but what works in the real world NHL is not always the best thing for fantasy poolsters and this is a perfect example

Well said...

[jhonny]

Here is why Giroux can and probably will hit 60... not a point more (and I'm shocked that with all of these paragraphs I've burned my corneas on, no one mentioned this):

Carter and Richards will NOT hit 80 each.

Briere wil NOT hit 76... jeepers freakin creepers!!! (that's how I talk around my kids)...

No Flyer hits 80, and only 2 hit 70... and by that I mean low to mid 70's.

This is my team that I love so dearly... but I do not draft Flyers for Fantasy Hockey unless they fall in my lap late!

[Maaaasquito]

Here is why Giroux can and probably will hit 60... not a point more (and I'm shocked that with all of these paragraphs I've burned my corneas on, no one mentioned this):

Carter and Richards will NOT hit 80 each.

Briere wil NOT hit 76... jeepers freakin creepers!!! (that's how I talk around my kids)...

No Flyer hits 80, and only 2 hit 70... and by that I mean low to mid 70's.

This is my team that I love so dearly... but I do not draft Flyers for Fantasy Hockey unless they fall in my lap late!

That's a fair statement... but I think a lot of people out there don't share that sentiment... they think Richards and Carter will get 80, on top of that Briere will hit 76 and Giroux will hit 60+... same with Zherdev, Hartnell, JVR, and Leino... what I'm saying is that can't happen, something has to give.

As McGoo said, most teams' offensive production remain relatively stable from year to year, unless something big happens like new blood or new offensive minded coach... none of which really has happened to the Flyers. So you kinda gotta assume status quo...

[737power]

sorry but this is one of the dumbest threads i have ever read, you guys think giroux will only get 50 points cause there is not enough points to go around, i guess somebody forgot to tell that to Stamkos last year. did you guys watch the playoffs last year? giroux is going to be a stud,maybe not this year but i would not be surprised if he gets 75-80 points this season, 65-70 is guaranteed if he stays healthy
and he will hit 85-100 points in the next 2-3 years

[Maaaasquito]

sorry but this is one of the dumbest threads i have ever read, you guys think giroux will only get 50 points cause there is not enough points to go around, i guess somebody forgot to tell that to Stamkos last year. did you guys watch the playoffs last year? giroux is going to be a stud,maybe not this year but i would not be surprised if he gets 75-80 points this season, 65-70 is guaranteed if he stays healthy
and he will hit 85-100 points in the next 2-3 years

Wow! do you want to justify why you believe so? I've posted about 1000 words of why I think he won't get there, I'm more than happy to listen to why you think he can get 75-80...

[Maaaasquito]

First off playoffs are a completely different ballgame... There's consistency during the playoffs, 2 home games, 2 away games (in the same city)... Regular season you have to factor in travel and players breaking routine... Assuming playoff production translates to regular season production is dangerous. I mean did you really think that Fernando Pisani is a 48 goal scorer? or that Ryan Malone is a 65 point player?

2) Playoffs aren't a long grind, it happens over a course of 2 months... the regular season is a grind of 7 months...

3) Ice-time dispersion is completely different during the playoffs than regular season. Giroux averaged 18:44 during the playoffs compared to 16:36 during the regular season... Asham (11:14), JVR (11:54), Carcillo (10:32), Betts (11:19), Powe (12:33), and Laperriere (9:31) compared to 10:04, 12:57, 11:14, 12:36, 12:05, 12:30 respectively during the regular season... the 4th line plays a much more prominent role in the regular season than playoffs.

4) Power-play opportunities were much more prevalent during the playoffs 105 opportunities in 23 games for 4.56 opportunities per game. During the regular season they had 317 opportunities in 82 games, for 3.87 opportunities per game. Giroux won't average 3:26 on the PP for the duration of the season...

5) Giroux shot 21.3 percent during the playoffs... his career regular season average 11.7 percent...

6) Only 44 players hit 65 points last season and 30 hit 70... I don't think Giroux, given the depth in Philly, is a top 30 scorer...

7) 85-100 you're putting him in some pretty elite company, Sedin's, Thorntons, Kanes, Gaboriks, Stamkos, Backstroms... He's got talent but I dunno if I'd say he's top 12 talent though...

8) Now on to Stamkos, he averaged 20:33 per contest for the Lightning... If Giroux averages that much sure no problem... But Richards/Carter won't even average that much how can you assume Giroux will average that much especially with the depth that they have in Philly. Stammy also averaged 4:39 on the PP, because they pretty much spent the entire PP on the ice... Philly you could argue have 2 possibly 3 lines to shift in and out on the PP. He also led the league in sh% (17.2) with players that had more than 160 SOG. Giroux career as mentioned above is 11.7... Stammy had to compete with guys like Malone, Downie and Tanguay compare that to Giroux who has to compete with Zherdev, Hartnell, JVR, Briere and Carcillo.

[islefan31]

jeepers freakin creepers!!! (that's how I talk around my kids)...

First off...watch the potty mouth, I had to turn my kids away from the monitor.

I agree with what you said about the points. With a team that deep, scoring is spread out way too much for any one line to hit it's projected #'s. It doesn't mean they wont, but chances are better they will not. But one or two key injuries and things can change in a hurry.

[mister_mcgoo]

sorry but this is one of the dumbest threads i have ever read, you guys think giroux will only get 50 points cause there is not enough points to go around, i guess somebody forgot to tell that to Stamkos last year. did you guys watch the playoffs last year? giroux is going to be a stud,maybe not this year but i would not be surprised if he gets 75-80 points this season, 65-70 is guaranteed if he stays healthy
and he will hit 85-100 points in the next 2-3 years

right WE'RE the dumb ones in this equation bub, lmap...no one here is saying that Giroux doesn't have the potential or upside to 85+ pts in his career. And given the right set of circumstances, that could even happen this year (say Carter re-injures that foot and Richards dislocates one of his shoulders). What we are trying to drum into a few thick skulls is just how unlikely that is. Beleive it or not Holmgrem and Laviolette do not give a **** if your fantasy team does well this season or not, they're far more concerned with getting this team back to the finals again, and I can't imagine them deviating too far from the formula that worked for them last year

[mister_mcgoo]

Here is why Giroux can and probably will hit 60... not a point more (and I'm shocked that with all of these paragraphs I've burned my corneas on, no one mentioned this):

Carter and Richards will NOT hit 80 each.

Briere wil NOT hit 76... jeepers freakin creepers!!! (that's how I talk around my kids)...

No Flyer hits 80, and only 2 hit 70... and by that I mean low to mid 70's.

This is my team that I love so dearly... but I do not draft Flyers for Fantasy Hockey unless they fall in my lap late!

haha I did actually Johnny but I don't blame you for not reading everything:

the scoring gets spread out across the lines much more and you get a distribution where 3 guys get 70 pts, 3 get 50-60, 3 get 40 etc. Its an awesome team with great talent but what works in the real world NHL is not always the best thing for fantasy poolsters and this is a perfect example