2010 Draft picks that make NHL this year

[kbooks]

The following 2010 draft picks are most likely to play in the NHL this year in my assessment.

1. Hall - 100% No question

2. Sequin - 95% - By rights but some speculation that he might suffer similar treatment to Pietrangelo another highly touted 2nd pick form 2008 still trying to make the NHL. If Boston does not solve their cap problems this might be an out for them. I expect Seguin will be in the NHL just not quite as assured as Hall.

3. Gudbranson 30/70 - I think Florida will allow him at least another year to develop.

4. Johansen - 70/30 will depend on how pre season goes. If it goes well he will get slotted in behind Vermette and Brassard.

5. Niederreiter - 60/40 Good chance he plays but he will be up against Joensuu if he does not shine he goes back for another year in Junior

6. Connolly 90% - TB is not that solid on the right side with Downie, Purcell, Pouliot and Carter. Connoly will clearly be their top lin RW in time. Very good chance he starts out this year on the third line and if Purcell falters watch Connoy move up the depth chart fast.

7. Skinner - 90% It looks like Carolina may be slotting him in on the third line with Boychuk or Dalpe.

8. Burmistrov - 50/50 - good chance he steals the 3rd line center spot from Todd White and Cormier. They probably let White play out the last year of his contract but it is iffy. His play has dropped off dramatically so preseason will decide.

9. Granlund - 20/80 look out Shepard Granlund is coming but Sheppard likely gets one more chance to establish himself befor the job is given to Granlund.

10. McIlrath - 0% NY does not need him this year.

11. Campbell - 0% Unusual for a goalie to make that jump.

12. Fowler - 100% There is a real need for D in Anaheim Fowler is playing.

13. Gormley - 0% To much talent ahead of Gormley in Larsson and Goncharov.

Thats it everyone else is back to Junior for another year.

[Raja]

Good list! Lots of people will be asking this down the stretch. Connolly has to be much much lower though. St.Louis and Downie are definite top 6 and being in the minors will help him much more than getting bottom 6 minuts.

[frazmo12]

Good List and I agree with your list accept for Connelly and Skinnner. Connelly needs some AHL time (to Dominate as well)after hardly playing at all last year. Tlusty and Bowman are ahead of him on the depth chart and it's a complete waste to have him play 8 minutes a game!!!So I would guess him to be a 70/30 chance and needs to blow them away in camp to really change that (which I think he can and hopefully will).

If you agree Rep please!! I want to give up my rookie status....LOL

[vandalay]

Agreed with Hall and Seguin, but as for the rest here is my assessment:

3. Gudbranson - 50%
4. Johansen - 10%
5. Niederreiter - 25%
6. Connolly - 20%
7. Skinner - 10%
8. Burmistrov - 10%
9. Granlund - 0%
10. McIlrath - 0%
11. Campbell - 0%
12. Fowler - 25%
13. Gormley - 0%

[Shanty]

I only see Hall, Fowler full time and Gudbranson, Niederreiter part time. Seguin gets one more year in Junior, plus world juniors to put him at the ripe age to move up! That should get Canada a Gold.

[ovi42]

Im interested as to where you heard the info about Skinner slotting in on the 3rd line? Everything i've come across has said hes still a year or two away. I'd love to see him make the squad, but it seems unrealistic at this point.

[kbooks]

From the 2009 draft year only 6 players made it straight to the NHL, Taveres (1), Hedman (2), Duchene (3), Kane(4), Kulikov (14) and O'Reilly (33)

[kbooks]

Im interested as to where you heard the info about Skinner slotting in on the 3rd line? Everything i've come across has said hes still a year or two away. I'd love to see him make the squad, but it seems unrealistic at this point.

From a report in Fantasy Futures

While many expected him to go in the middle of the first round, Jeff Skinner was selected seventh overall by Carolina. Skinner fills an immediate need for Carolina: scoring. The Rangers forward scored 70 total goals in 2009-10, including a 50-goal regular season and a 20-goals-in-20-games postseason.

He was also considered one of the best — if not the best — pure scorer in draft. In the eyes of many draft pundits, Skinner was rivaled only by first overall pick Taylor Hall at putting pucks in the net.
Max Giese, a scout with Red Line Report, thinks Skinner bests even Hall.

“Carolina got the best goal scorer in the draft,” Giese said. “He's average-sized and isn't an explosive skater, but he has a gift for being at the right place at the right time with the puck on his stick just long enough to put it in the back of the net.”

Skinner also fits the mold of many recent Hurricanes draft picks: determined and hard-working, even if a bit undersized.

“He's a short but thick kid who brings an edgy, chippy game to the rink and will score a lot of goals at any level he plays at,” Giese said. “He’s not a great defender, but he's shown the determination to improve. He started the year off with a so-so U-18 camp in Calgary and then was put on the 4th line for the Ivan Hlinka tournament, but all he did there was score goals and eventually was moved up to the top line and top power play.”

Skinner will be given the chance to make the Hurricanes this fall. While the No. 3 center job is still up for grabs, Skinner may be more suited at wing given his size.

[Kudelskis Krushers]

I haven't seen him play so consider this an uneducated opinion, but I would be surprised to see Fowler crack the Ducks line-up. They'll already have a somewhat inexperienced Sbisa making the jump, not to mention Jake Gardiner who is knocking on the door.

[Colt.45Orr]

In July it looks like few will make the cut every year, but keep in mind that last year the top 4 all made it and there will be AT LEAST as many make it this year. Last year lots said that they expected the #3 pick to go back for "one more year of development plus WJC experience etc" ... how did that work out?

There should be 5 or more of the top 10 that make it this year.

[Dean Youngblood]

way tooooooooo optimistic in your %s kbooks

hall is about 99.1%. The 0.9% is probably for people like me who think he should not make the team as he has some areas that need work. If it weren't for the marketing aspect I doubt Hall would be on the roster come Game #1, but he will be. The rest of your list should not be that high.

Skinner and Connolly at 90% - come on, that is craziness
Johanssen at 70% is out there as well. He needs some seasoning, as do most kids coming out of the CHL

Of the rest, I like Niederreiter, Gudbranson and Fowler's chance the most but even then I think both should not be rushed - especially Fowler. I would love to see him do something without the likes of Hall in windsor before projecting him to be a stud.
ANA will bring in a new dman or two.

Gudbranson is probably the most ready of the dmen but as with most dmen defending NHL players is a much tougher task so management would be best off giving him some time to develop and not crush his confidence.

Neiderreiter is a strong kid so I like his chances the most after Hall and Seguin but in the end, it should likely only be #1 and 2 overall that see more than 25 plus games.




seguin will likely see at least 9 games but if Boston has a tough time moving Savard then he may be sent back to plymouth (not a bad thing at all)

[roenick27]

Agreed with Hall and Seguin, but as for the rest here is my assessment:

3. Gudbranson - 50%
4. Johansen - 10%
5. Niederreiter - 25%
6. Connolly - 20%
7. Skinner - 10%
8. Burmistrov - 10%
9. Granlund - 0%
10. McIlrath - 0%
11. Campbell - 0%
12. Fowler - 25%
13. Gormley - 0%

I'd say this is a more accurate portrayal IMO.
Hall yes
Seguin I'd say 50/50--I think he gets a 9 game trial and if he shows he's ready he'll stick
I'd say Fowler has at least a 50/50 chance as well.
Other than that, I think most of these guys don't stick this year, either at all or more than a few games to get a taste..

[fzusher]

I'm more with Dean and Vandalay than with kbooks here, but then I am one of those people who believe only the exceptional few who are either so talented or so much physical specimens that playing in junior another year will flatline or even stagnate their development should make the NHL out of the draft: you only get to the NHL if you have nothing more to learn/improve at the junior level or are so big you can coast there. And personally, even then I would prefer the initial learning not occur in the NHL team - I want to play players who are ready once their ready. Tyler Seguin is an interesting case in this respect - there's some learning and development to be done before he's NHL ready, but he won't get it effectively playing against juniors, and can't play in the AHL. If I am Chiarelli I think outside the bun and totally encourage him, if he's into leaving North America, to sign a one-year deal to play in one of the top Euro leagues - preferably Finland, where they play a more NHL-like game - so that he gets experience playing against men.

If you look back to who did make their teams out of the draft in previous years, it usually is the few most talented in the draft whose teams have roster needs. This, of course, is usually the case with the teams with high picks, or they wouldn't suck bad enough to have the high pick. Oftentimes, it's also teams that need a flashy marquee rookie to create buzz around the team or hope in its future within its marketplace. BOS is an exception to both rules this year. In fact, there are few teams in this situation this year. And then there are 1-2 players picked lower who surprise everyone with their readiness.

So it totally wouldn't surprise me if this year's draft is more like 07 than 08 or 09. In 07, only 3 players made the NHL straight out of the draft: first overall Kane, 6th overall Gagner (whose team's roster that year was so thin they had 4 rookies make it full time - Nilsson, Cogliano, and Grebeshkov being the others; it can be argued, in hindsight, that Cogs, Nilsson and maybe even Gagner would have been well served with another season of non-NHL development), and camp surprise 26th overall Perron.

So yeah, Hall I think makes it. Fowler stands a good chance because of how thin the Ducks are on D. Gudbranson, Johansen, Niederreiter, and Granlund will all get long looks because of the thinness of their teams in their positions, though it'd surprise me if Granlund makes it - he's now the fire under Wellman and Sheppard's butts, as one of them would lose their roster spot to him in a year or two.The other 3 it wouldn't surprise me if they make it but it also wouldn't surprise me if they don't.

I wouldn't rule out McIlrath, who is already the 3rd biggest D owned by NYR, behind Nigel Williams and Tyler Dowzak. If he proves in camp he's got the foot speed to keep up with NHL caliber skaters, and the decision-making to time his hits, know when not to go for the hit, and know how to park himself in his own zone ahead of attackers, he will have a spot, simply because Marc Staal is the only current blueshirts D to bring any physicality to the game, and their need for it has been exposed last year numerous time (hello Mr. Dan 'let me just stand and watch with interest while my injury prone offensive star drops the gloves with the other team's checker' Girardi; that won't happen with McIlrath around guaranteed).

I would rule out Connelly and Burmistrov. Connelly simply has to take another year in junior building up muscle mass to protect his injured parts if he stands a chance of avoiding injuries in the NHL. Burmistrov loves to play physical and not just offensive, but if he tries to do that in the NHL with a 150 lb body he'll be broken in two within one period of play. Skinner will get a look, but I'd be surprised to see him make it. While they have an opening at C3, Riley Nash and Zack Dalpe are both better suited to it and more experienced. If a conversion to wing is in the works, he'll need time to learn the position, plus the Canes ranks are currently full in this position - Ruutu, Cole, Jokinen, Samsonov, Boychuk, Tlusty and Bowman make 7 for 6 top-9 spots, so its more likely he will be given this year to convert to wing and next year to battle Osala and Chris Terry for the spot(s) vacated by Samsonov and (if not resigned) Jokinen.

In terms of a lower surprise pick, I would keep my eye on Emerson Etem and Dalton Smith. There could be roster opportunities for them if they have great camps, and their size is already decent enough. I don't think they make it, but if there is a surprise lower pick guy making it, one of those two would be my guess.

[Dean Youngblood]

Minnesota has to be conscious of the fact that rushing their "prized prospects" didn't work out the first time around with Sheppard, don't they?

Granlund seems to be one of the most NHL ready draftees but I think they might take a more cautious approach this time around