Is Spezza the new Vinny?

[Sinbin]

Is he a 65-75 point (per 82 games) guy without Heatley or does he have elite potential on his own?

He isn't the 23 year old kid with huge upside anymore. He's a soon-to-be 27 year old with 2 90+ point seasons under his belt and then the 73 points last year and a 68 points pace this season (per 82 games).

He has the pedigree and has scored at every level, I just wonder if the expectations for him are too high now and he is really a second tier center.

And lets face it, although he doesn't have superstar linemates in Heatley AND Alfredsson, he still has Alfredsson. In a season or two when Alfredsson retires, does he drop even more?

The reason I'm asking all this is I'm on the hunt for a center for my keeper team and guys like Spezza, B. Richards, Plekanec are available for trade (with the price I would pay being in that order with Spezza being most expensive).

[newper114]

i was never sold on b.richards but if he is alot cheaper i might go after him, he seems to just score and score.


but now back to spezza yes he is still elite. he started off very very slow - adjusting to being the main guy, then got hit hard with a nagging injury then out for some time. but i believe since he has been back he has been over a PPG average. i dont know his numbers exactly but his second half when back from injury might actually have him at a 90+ point pace over 82 games if you break it out.

[ericdaoust]

New defensive-oriented system, one less sniper in the lineup... I think it'll be tough for Spezza to return to the elite level. When he was at his best, the Sens were rolling in every way possible. He'll still push the mid-80s though.

[DirtyDangles]

Hes still a 90 point guy per 82 games i think...the 2 seasons he had in the 90s he only played like 70 games each year..so if he can play 82 games hell be a 90pt guy, hes just gotta stay healthy for a whole season...

If you caught the game against dallas earlier in the week he showed what he was capable of doing...He absolutely dominated that game, had 3 G n 1 A...

[fantasyhockeygeek]

he started off very very slow - adjusting to being the main guy, then got hit hard with a nagging injury then out for some time. but i believe since he has been back he has been over a PPG average. i dont know his numbers exactly but his second half when back from injury might actually have him at a 90+ point pace over 82 games if you break it out.

Good call, man. In the first 30 games of the season (let's call that the adjustment phase) he was on a 52 point pace. Yuck.

Since returning from the injury, he's played 22 games. 14G, 10A in 24 games... that's an 89-point pace, and 50+ goals! Obviously it's reasonable to expect him to tail off and have some on/off spots, but I'd be comfortable projecting him for 85 next year with the understanding that he was the potential to blow up.

You might catch some owners sleeping because they'll see his "on-pace" and be down on him... now is a great time to buy low. Just ask Brad Richards owners how they felt last season! His peripheral stats in the "good" part of his season are pretty mediocre for multicat leagues -- projecting to -5, 40 PIM, 30 PPP, 250 SOG -- but again, there's definite upside on all those numbers.

[Beejer]

Good post on Spezz... I'm in a 30 teams dynasty and I'm considering moving Brassard up for Spezza. The cap hit is significant but I get an immediate bonafide top center.

Would you stand still and wait on Brassard or... move him for Spezza?!?

Beejer

Team Roster
C: Jokinen (UFA) - Brassard - Dubinsky - McClement
RW: Hemsky - Antropov - Rolston - Boedker
LW: Booth - Berglund - Donovan - Begin
D: Pitkanen - Corvo - Robidas (UFA) - Clark (UFA) - Lydman (UFA)- Gervais - Meyer
G: Turco (UFA) - Boucher

Mathias, Tlusty and Russell will be coming up Pro shortly.

Also got a decent farm...

[JHM]

An absolute top drawer in Fantasy, is what Spezza represents.

- He can score 40
- He can setup 80
- he's early in his prime
- he's an elite talent, with a proven history

That history is the problem.
- he will miss 10 games annually
- he's too.... me
- he fails to bring that consistency that puts guys in his skill set into the HALL OF FAME

If I were to acquire him, I would
- hope he got off to a great start NEXT YEAR
- trade him for the safer guy as soon as he did

He has the potential to race out of the gate like Kopitar did this year, creating that short term abstractly high trade return.

Now, part of the stress is having enough nerve to trade him at that moment. Another part is that he has enough history that other Fantasy Poolsters are a bit leery where hes' concerned. Gaborik & Havlat are the two real classics in this comparison.

This guy failed to eat his wheaties every morning for breakfast. He had cream puffs instead. 20 years of cream puffs and 'voila' a discussion like this unfolds.

Brad Richards is a world class talent. Wonder about him threatening point-a-game in upcoming seasons.

Plekky is not in the same class as the first two guys here. Don't be dreaming of career years in that 90 point window, just yet. I don't believe he's a true first line centre, even if the HABS line him up there. He's most likely to have his inconsistent spells. The trick with the Plekky's in Fantasy, is knowing when to start giving them their full due. When he goes for 70 points again, I best have been a smart enough boy to have started giving him a little more credit. Unlike Spezza and Richards, he could bottom out with 50 points once again. How will he look with a different jersey? There is a good chance this happens. NHL GMs in other towns be careful how much money you spend on this guy!

Richards absolute bottom window is 60 points. Spezza's bottom window is closer to 70 points, like we're seeing now.

Spezza is the guy, but be prepared for some suffering. Safer is Richards. Finally Plekky.

I must admit, if I was contending, after weighing the asking price and returns, there is a very good chance I'd be looking at Brad Richards.

[newper114]

Good post on Spezz... I'm in a 30 teams dynasty and I'm considering moving Brassard up for Spezza. The cap hit is significant but I get an immediate bonafide top center.

Would you stand still and wait on Brassard or... move him for Spezza?!?

Beejer

Team Roster
C: Jokinen (UFA) - Brassard - Dubinsky - McClement
RW: Hemsky - Antropov - Rolston - Boedker
LW: Booth - Berglund - Donovan - Begin
D: Pitkanen - Corvo - Robidas (UFA) - Clark (UFA) - Lydman (UFA)- Gervais - Meyer
G: Turco (UFA) - Boucher

Mathias, Tlusty and Russell will be coming up Pro shortly.

Also got a decent farm...

umm YES. if you can swallow the cap i think brassard for spezza is a steal

[little_boyes_semin]

Didn't he just get a hat-trick the other night? Including an assist when he took the shot on Fisher's tip in?

89 point pace since returning from injury, baby.

[SeaDawg]

Spezza rules and is under-rated right now. Grab him while you can (like I did).

Did anyone think Richards would return to ppg numbers after his two (or was it three?) horrible seasons? If Richards can do it, Spezza can definitely do it (only sooner). The time to grab him is slowly passing, if it hasn't already. The guy is the real deal.

[Zorro]

I sure wouldn't be scared to buy Spezza low right now, he will definitely give you points. I just think without Heatley or a true sniper there, he's 90-100 points are going to be 70-80 now.

[StuperousFunker]

You guys are making me rethink things. I picked Spezza up in one of my leagues for a late season push for 1st place, I was going to deal him in the offseason for picks to round out my draft, now I'm not so sure. Lots of good points in this thread.

I hate the Sens though, it's gonna be a tough call!