Psychology of the Shootout

[mister_mcgoo]

I got one for you GG, you may very well already have an article on this (you usually do ) but I've often wondered on the psychology of the shootout and what it does to goalies, whether it messes with their heads and confidence or what. Consider how often the games that go to shootouts are hard fought, back and forth battles, often between fierce rivals. Then all of a sudden you make the game completely one-dimensional (I HATE the shootout btw) and put all the pressure on your goalie. What does that do to the goalie's confidence? Does he feel like he's let his team down? Especially if its won on a goal where he gets undressed...I've also seen some goalies who are great in the game when all the action is going down, make lots of big saves at key moments but when faced with the shootout they look shaky and out of their element...thoughts?

[metaldude26]

This is a goodie McGoo! I've always kind of wondered about this because I've seen what seems like a hundred times is Thomas getting scored on to lose and then just bolting off the ice. I know he's an emotional guy so I figure he's trying to get to a safe spot to vent ASAP but yeah I'd like to know how this affects a guy longterm.

[notoriousjim]

I think it depends on the goalie. Some goalies have short memories for losses, others let it fester for a long time.

Lundy has given up 2 goals in every game post OTL.
Bryz plays well and does not have any bad games right after, in back to back OTL this year he had a 1-4 loss the next game, so that may be apoint where it killed him.
Ward is 3-2 but has given up 3 or more goals in 4 of those 5 games following a shootout loss.

[Zorro]

I have also wondered what this must do to a goalies confidence. When you have guys like Datsyuk, J.Jokinen, Kovalev, etc, etc. making goalies look so foolish sometimes. This must take a huge toll on a goalies thoughts after the game and into the next game. I would love to here from GG on this one..

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks for the awesome question. I am going to take this and make it half of School of Block for Monday and the other half will obviously be Olympic related.

I think to be as basic and straightforward as possible, the Psychology of the shootout is simply a double-edged sword. You make the stops, you gain confidence at different levels, depending on the intensity of the game, the importance of the save, etc. You get scored on, you lose confidence at different levels. There are also personal matchups between goalies and players that can impact a goalie's game moving forward. Friends against each other, rivals against each other, it's all a very entertaining and fun dynamic that lots of people love.

One of the best examples to use right now is Jimmy Howard. He is really affected mentally by shootouts. He slams his stick when he loses and he celebrates when he wins. He also gets deked like crazy and I am really surprised every NHL shooter doesn't come down and make a deke and go backhand ... he bites extremely hard on them and therefore it reveals a lot about his game and skill level and where he excels and struggles. We all know Howard over-commits on a lot of shots during a game. The shootout is where you notice it the most and you can see it without interference or without tons of bodies on the ice.

Without seeing those shootouts, you probably wouldn't realize it as easily.

The fact the shootout all boils down to a one-dimensional aspect of goalie vs. shooter actually puts the goaltender in a situation where he must perform under pressure. That is what makes it such a revealing trait of a goalie's fantasy value and long-term potential. I have watched Rinne in shootouts and been blown away by his skill, agility and ability to read plays. I have watched Anderson in every single shootout this year and I wonder how he makes some saves because he's just not nearly as technically skilled or sharp as Rinne.

At the end of the day, the psychology and the pressures and the results are all the same. Make the key saves when it matters most, when the game is tied, when the points are on the line and you will ultimately increase your value and potential moving forward. Lose shootouts and you lose confidence and you start to guess and wonder and try to fix things. Goalies should always stay loose and play their game.

Another aspect of the shootout is the technique involved in making saves. It may seem like every goalie approaches a shot differently, but in fact almost every single goalie coach teaches it the same way. There are four points to stopping a penalty shot (or breakaway).

1. CHALLENGE - Attack the shooter and challenge him. Always start in the middle of the crease attached to a post. Once the shooter takes one or two strides, explode off the post and attack and challenge.
2. MATCH SPEED - It's extremely important for the goaltender to match the speed of the shooter. If the shooter is coming down fast, a goalie must challenge quickly and back up at the same exact speed so that the correct save selection, depth in the net and timing can be achieved. If a shooter comes down slower, the goalie needs to be matching that speed otherwise timing is all screwed up.
3. SAVE SELECTION - This is obvious. Don't two-pad stack on a shot up high and don't get caught standing up on a shot low corner. Read and react.
4. STAY IN RHYTHM - There is a rhythm to taking shootouts. Each shooter moves at a different pace. The goalie must do everything he can to not only match that pace and speed but read the shooter's pace from their first step and be synched up with their moves. It's all about timing and matching their speed.

As you can see, approaching a shootout is pretty technical. It's not just standing out there blindly. There's a rhythm and a science to it all. Goalies that can stay focused on their execution and show confidence by challenging shooters will ultimately do better than others.

Look at Garon, Turco, Rinne, Bryzgalov, etc some of the best shootout goalies lately and they all come flying out at the shooters and force them to deke. Or they read the shooter extremely well and make tough shots look extremely easy to stop.

But as far as the Psychology is concerned, due to the intensity of the shootout, it definitely does have more of an influence on confidence than just a normal game in regulation. These are massive, massive points.

But a goalie can lose a shootout and still keep their confidence level high. What if he made 50 saves in regulation and the other goalie only stopped 15 in a 1-1 tie? And the goalie that stopped 50 shots made an unbelievable glove save with seconds left in OT. They won't lose that much confidence if they lose the shootout because he was strong enough to put his team in a situation where they had a chance to steal the 2nd point. It's all relative to the dynamics of the game!!! And thus why the best way to track goalies is to just literally try and watch every single game! The previous game influences the current game which influences their next game.

One thing I hate about the shootout is how it is only 3 shooters. It needs to be 5 no matter what.

[metaldude26]

Epic response.

[mister_mcgoo]

Epic response.

yeah great response GG, thanks for sharing your thoughts...its just weird to see a goalie play a tremendous game and then tank in the shootout. Also if you look at the stats for shootouts you see some odd anomalies...for example:

Of all the goalies who have faced 100 or more shootout attempts, Lundqvist has the best S% at .751 which is pretty damn good. But his W-L record is only 29-20. Tim Thomas is up there too, .728 S% but he's 20-21. Contrast that with probably the most successful shootout man, Marty Brodeur, who has a respectable .711 S% but is 34-16. Its not like the Devils have the best snipers in the league or that the Bruins don't have good shooters so what accounts for these odd numbers?

I dunno it just seems kind of random skills competition to me, there's some correlation between the strength of a goalie against the SO (cause lets face it, if you are poor at the shootout you aren't going to win many games), but its not a strong correlation. Interesting stuff!

[GoalieGuild]

Mcgoo I'm glad you brought up those specific stats.

You are 100% correct - it's a completey random series of events. You won't find much correlation between goalies and their regulation stats and how it stacks up in the shootout. No matter how hard you look or dissect STATS, you won't learn much more than what you already know.

and THIS is why stats mean so little when it comes to dissecting and understanding a goalie. The stats are the end ... but it doesn't teach you about the means.

Really what it comes down to is focus and consistency over a certain amount of time. The more time that passes at the top of your game, the better you are. If you are up and down and all over the place, you're not considered as good.

Nabokov.

So consistently good it's insane. The more I think about it, the more I think he's the best in the game and could do serious damage in the Olympics.

[mister_mcgoo]

and I'm glad you brought up Nabby because i agree he looks consistently strong in net...I was thinking that the other night in that game against DET, he's so calm and poised he often makes it look effortless until he has to make a 'stand on your head' kinda save, then he can scramble with the best of them.

but not good in the SO, a downright pedestrian .629 S% and an 18-21 record for Nabby! I know what you mean about the stats being the end not the means, but that's why I think there's a lot of psychology going on with it...I've seen Nabby stone many a shooter on a breakaway during the game so why does it not transfer as well to the SO??

[GoalieGuild]

To quote the infamous Todd Bertuzzi after the Steve Moore hit ...

"It is what it is...."

Just one of those things I guess. 18-21 isn't that terrible of a record, at least not bad enough to make me think he's doing something wrong in the shootouts or has some kind of mental thorn in his side. If he was 8-21 that would be a different story LOL.

[mister_mcgoo]

To quote the infamous Todd Bertuzzi after the Steve Moore hit ...

"It is what it is...."

Just one of those things I guess. 18-21 isn't that terrible of a record, at least not bad enough to make me think he's doing something wrong in the shootouts or has some kind of mental thorn in his side. If he was 8-21 that would be a different story LOL.

no you're right its not awful, but that low S% is odd don't you think? Plus you gotta believe that with all the offensive firepower the Sharks have, shouldn't his forwards be winning him some of those games? Like I said its an anomaly and hard to determine causation but its certainly suggestive...some guys excel at the fast pace of the game but struggle when given too much time to think

[GoalieGuild]

You only face three shots in a shootout on most occasions. If you stop 2-3 you can win that shootout but only post a .667 save percentage.

If you stop 1 of 3 you could win that shootout and end up with a .333 save percentage.

Save percentage is probably the best indicator of a goalie's proficiency stopping the puck, but when such a low sample rate is used (3-6 shots on average) then you can see why the numbers can look a little distorted.

I will have to watch Nabby more closely in the shootout to see what I can pick up =) There could definitely be something going on mentally!!

[mister_mcgoo]

You only face three shots in a shootout on most occasions. If you stop 2-3 you can win that shootout but only post a .667 save percentage.

If you stop 1 of 3 you could win that shootout and end up with a .333 save percentage.

Save percentage is probably the best indicator of a goalie's proficiency stopping the puck, but when such a low sample rate is used (3-6 shots on average) then you can see why the numbers can look a little distorted.

I will have to watch Nabby more closely in the shootout to see what I can pick up =) There could definitely be something going on mentally!!

yeah but thats what I mean, the lower S% I could understand, because as you say its a small sample size and stopping 2 of 3 is often more than enough to win...but thats the thing I'm digging at! He loses more than he wins in the shootout which seems out of synch with his otherwise stellar play and the snipers on that high powered team there to help him. You gotta admit its a strange anomaly no? By all means try and watch his next few shootouts if you get a chance and see if you spot anything

[GoalieGuild]

I am watching him right now haha he just made an awesome two-pad stack save.

This is one of my favorite shootout resources I've ever found. In fact it's the only one I use:

http://www.nhlshootouts.com/ShootoutStats.htm

A few things pop out when looking at this season:

Right now the save percentage is .680 ... that's actually the highest it's ever been. The shots per shootout are also the highest ever at 7.7 ... means goalies are getting better on average ... or shooters are starting to try more fancy moves ... whichever way you look at it could be true.

Nabokov is 8th in save percentage:

Evgeni Nabokov SJS 34/45 = 0.756

I think again, it's all relative. Still says a lot about a goalie but it's such a gray area because every shot is different. Nabokov could face better players than other goalies (Red Wings and Ducks and Kings) and that's another thing that comes into play.

Too many different dynamics it's almost full blown chaos.

I do agree it's a strange anomaly but I think the only reason it's strange is because there's no direct correlation.

[mister_mcgoo]

I am watching him right now haha he just made an awesome two-pad stack save.

This is one of my favorite shootout resources I've ever found. In fact it's the only one I use:

http://www.nhlshootouts.com/ShootoutStats.htm

A few things pop out when looking at this season:

Right now the save percentage is .680 ... that's actually the highest it's ever been. The shots per shootout are also the highest ever at 7.7 ... means goalies are getting better on average ... or shooters are starting to try more fancy moves ... whichever way you look at it could be true.

Nabokov is 8th in save percentage:

Evgeni Nabokov SJS 34/45 = 0.756

I think again, it's all relative. Still says a lot about a goalie but it's such a gray area because every shot is different. Nabokov could face better players than other goalies (Red Wings and Ducks and Kings) and that's another thing that comes into play.

Too many different dynamics it's almost full blown chaos.

I do agree it's a strange anomaly but I think the only reason it's strange is because there's no direct correlation.

yep that's the same source I used, I was referring to the all time numbers:
http://www.nhlshootouts.com/AllTimeGoalieStats.htm