Jose Theodore

[spitball]

i agree with you guys in theory ( theo's the vet, he should be the guy who can handle the erratic and unreliable d-men in front of him - looking at you, poti - and provide enough stability to bring in the w's ), and i understand that we are working with a real small sample size, BUT, theo's won 3 of nine starts. at some point, perhaps soon, or perhaps not for a few months, this will prove inadequate.

maybe theo becomes more reliable. however, our sample size for predicting that outcome is fairly large. history says those are some long odds.

[shook81]

BB did not hesitate to hand Varly the gig in the playoffs last season...he has a lot of confidence in Semyon. Varly and Neuvirth may be inexperienced, but that does not mean they are not capable of being a very good goaltending tandem. There are several very experienced tandems who absolutely suck right now (Carolina, Florida, Anaheim, Detroit). But back to Washington...

It's only a matter of time before Theodore is out of the picture in Washington...he is simply an expensive placeholder. Theodore has won 3 of 9 starts this season (6 home, 3 road), Varlamov 4 of 5 (3 Road, 2 Home). Adding last seasons stats, Varlamov has won 9 of 10 starts, and has yet to lose a game in regulation during the regular season.

Teams play to win each game, but that does not mean they always field their best roster for the game. You must consider the financial reasons why Varly is not being handed the starting gig. The team is on the hook for Theo's exorbitant contract through this season...as long as he isn't costing the team too many wins, they will play him...even if it's obvious he is the inferior option. Why? Because if they handed the gig to Varly right now (and didn't setup a platoon situation with Neuvirth next season) then George McPhee would have to go into salary arbitration with Varlamov at the end of next season and explain to the judge why a youthful two-time 40 game winner isn't deserving of a significantly higher salary. That's a battle McPhee doesn't want to fight...thus, you will see Theodore in net until it becomes painfully obvious he is the lesser of the two, or he goes on an extended losing streak. Theodore dropped the last two games at home to the Islanders and Blue Jackets...and it doesn't make much sense that he was given both of these after Varlamov's excellent win against a hot Atlanta team in Atlanta.

Lastly, I think people are remembering Varly's one awful game in Philadelphia where both teams went nuts and stopped playing defense (and the officials called everything under the sun). A lot of goalies got off to rocky starts...you look at Varly's last four games (all the games after the Philly debacle) and this is what you get:
4-0-0, 2.40 GAA, .915 SV%

Which is almost identical to the numbers he put up at the end of last season:
4-0-0, 2.37 GAA, .918 SV%

Theodore's last four:
2-0-2, 3.22 GAA, .903 SV%

Varlamov is the Washington goalie I'd invest in this season...even though he may have to wait a while for a true shot at taking the starting job away from Theodore.

[smack]

Ok, but you're skewing the #'s. Take away Theo's last 2 games and he's had MUCH better #'s. #'s are a fickle thing, you can make them tell a story, but rarely is it the whole story.

[shook81]

Ok, but you're skewing the #'s. Take away Theo's last 2 games and he's had MUCH better #'s. #'s are a fickle thing, you can make them tell a story, but rarely is it the whole story.

Very true, but which numbers do you want to take for a trend...their first four game or their last four games? I like what Varlamov has done for the Caps lately...

His 9-0-0-1 career record is hard to argue against...even if you say he's been horrific (which he hasn't), he is still 9-0-0-1...which to me is very impressive.

[93213]

Boudreau unfortunately doesn't read our threads and so as long as Theo plays decently for the 1st 3/4 of the season they will use the 4 mill they are spending him on the ice rather than the bench - simple as that.

[shook81]

Boudreau unfortunately doesn't read our threads and so as long as Theo plays decently for the 1st 3/4 of the season they will use the 4 mill they are spending him on the ice rather than the bench - simple as that.

I agree with you and that's pretty much what I said in my previous post...but I believe they will play Theodore not so much because he is getting paid so much now (already a sunk cost) but rather because they don't want to have to pay Varlamov so much in the future.

[hockeyislife]

Boudreau is going to play the goalie that gives his team the best chance to win on a consistent basis.

Theodore has played very well so far this season; however the results in his W/L record just aren't there. Even with his two sub-par games to finish last week he has better GAA and sv% numbers than Varlamov.

Looking at who Varlamov has started against, he has played against weaker teams(Tor, Nsh, Atl X 2) than Theodore; the one game he started against one of the better teams he was pulled(Philly).

Now, does any of this mean that Theo is the starter. Nope. Not one bit.

While I would like to see Theodore be the guy in Washington(I own him in a couple of leagues), I'm realistic. He's not Boudreau's guy. Varlamov will be the starter in Washington soon enough. A solid game tonight against NJD could help solidify that.

just my $.02