I would add Crosby, Kessel, Datsyuk, Morrow, Semin, Kane and Boyes to the list of potential candidates.
I made an identical post before last season, and got some good feedback. Anyway, straight-forward question, but one that invites some debate.
My league tends to value goal-scorers. I tend to value consistency and predictability above all else.
Many players have the potential to score 40 goals once during their careers, but who is more likely than not (50+% chance) of doing so next season?
My short list:
Ovechkin
Kovalchuk
Heatley
Iginla
Vanek
Thoughts?
12 Team H2H Keeper League
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, SO
Start: C (2), LW (2), RW (2), D (4), G(2)
Keep 3 F, 1 D, 1 G
C- H. Sedin, J. Thornton
LW- Ovechkin, Heatley (RW), McDonald (C)
RW- Giroux, Knuble, Skinner
D- Doughty, Visnovsky, Karlsson
G- Bryzgalov, Thomas, Rask, Bobrovsky, Pavelec, Leighton (IR)
I would add Crosby, Kessel, Datsyuk, Morrow, Semin, Kane and Boyes to the list of potential candidates.
Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO
C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka
Minors:
F: Fantilli, Cooley, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay
I think that Malkin and Lecavelier deserve a spot here, too. Shouldn't surprise anyone if Crosby gets there as well.
As for slightly below your 50%+ chances of hitting 40, there's lots, including:
Nash
Parise
Staal
Carter
Hossa
As for Kessel, won't he be missing out on the first part of the season, and even then, playing the rest with a bum shoulder?
Yahoo Rotisserie Keeper League
14 Teams, 6 keepers, G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHP, GWG, FW, W, GAA, SV%, SHO
C- E. Staal, B. Richards, Kadri, Lecavalier, B. Sutter
W- Parise, Downie, Galchenyuk, Eriksson, Perron, Neil, Atkinson
D- Chara, Enstrom, Ehrhoff, Fowler, McDonagh
G- Rask, B. Elliott
Zetterberg. Daniel Sedin. Hossa. Nash. Malkin(had 47 2 seasons ago).
Toews. Jeff carter. semin and gaborik.
EDIT: brad boyes too.
Last edited by sexymountain; July 17, 2009 at 1:09 AM.
12 teams H2H Yahoo
G A +/- PIM PPP SOG... W SV%
2C 2LW 2RW 4D 1utility 2g 3bench
Crosby Berglund
Hartnell Perron
Wheeler Vrbata
Karlsson, Giordano, Green, Krug
Ryan Miller, Fleury
Nyquist, Ennis, Soderberg, Hemsky
Letang IR
Morrow and Kessel?? I will chew my own arm off and beat myself with it if either of these guys get 40 goals next season.. Morrow?? really? Bass what are you smoking dude? HAHA..
Zorro says "vote for Dobber"
Angus is my best friend at dobberhockey..
12 Team H2H Keeper League
G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, SO
Start: C (2), LW (2), RW (2), D (4), G(2)
Keep 3 F, 1 D, 1 G
C- H. Sedin, J. Thornton
LW- Ovechkin, Heatley (RW), McDonald (C)
RW- Giroux, Knuble, Skinner
D- Doughty, Visnovsky, Karlsson
G- Bryzgalov, Thomas, Rask, Bobrovsky, Pavelec, Leighton (IR)
Kessel had 36 in 70 games and this year is the "magical fourth season"
Morrow had 32 in 2008 and last year, he had a good offensive start. Richards, Ribiero, Neal and Eriksson are all potential linemates (even or PP) to help him reach those numbers with more ease...
Have some faith Zorro
Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO
C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka
Minors:
F: Fantilli, Cooley, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay
Vanek for sure.
I think Carter will fall short of 40 due to the extra attention. Simon Gagne, though, I feel will hit 40+.
Edit: oh and Gaborik...he wont even hit 40 games!
@tlucarelli on twitter
Ohhh Bass believe me I would love this to happen. If Kessel, Morrow, Hossa, Heatley and Zetterberg score 40 goals I win my league hands down.
Zorro says "vote for Dobber"
Angus is my best friend at dobberhockey..
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Frolik is kept on the wing he will score 40+ goals.
Keeper-G/A/PPG/SHG/GWG/W/SO
C-Steen-Pavelski-Stepan-Bergeron-Malkin
L-Ovechkin-Johansson-Ladd-Eriksson
R-Perry-Backes-Wheeler-Hornqvist-Nash
D-Burns-Byfuglien-Letang-Shattenkirk-Vatanen
G-Andersen-Luongo
Farm-Condon-Horvat-Namestnikov-Walman-Murray(G)
Think you can write fiction? Enter this quarterly competition.
http://www.flash500.com
Morrow will not score 40+ goals. It will be his 10th year in the league and he has only scored more thatn 30 once. Kane scoring 40+ goals would be a 60% increase in his goal totals. I see that as highly unlikely. Not impossible mind you cause the kid has skills.
None of these should be a surprise: Vinnie, Heats, Hossa, Malkin, Sid, AO, Kovalchuk, Parise, Nash, Iggy, Carter and Vanek.
Quite obviously these player can do it if they are healthy: Gaborik and Semin.
I think that Cammalleri, Zetterberg and Staal have a good shot at it as well.
If you are looking for some who are not a 50-50 chance, but maybe a 40-49%, then I would include Toews, Gagne, Perry, Jokinen, Sharp and Boyes.
Long shot odds: Kane, Eriksson, Ryan, Selanne, Setoguchi, Knuble, Kopitar
Last edited by Atomic Wedgy; July 17, 2009 at 2:00 AM. Reason: ugly typo
Mike Green anyone!!!!???
12 teams H2H Yahoo
G A +/- PIM PPP SOG... W SV%
2C 2LW 2RW 4D 1utility 2g 3bench
Crosby Berglund
Hartnell Perron
Wheeler Vrbata
Karlsson, Giordano, Green, Krug
Ryan Miller, Fleury
Nyquist, Ennis, Soderberg, Hemsky
Letang IR