Who is the first after the big tree?

[pudge]

Really surprised to see how split this thread is... but I just can\'t let it go... Green is just so clearly the best pick in the 4 spot that we need to talk it through...

[Dutch]

someone explain to me how a 75 pt defender is better than a 100 pt goalie

PLEASE!

cause there really is no logic in that goalies are even more hard to come by than defenders.

[doulos]

We\'ve tried explaining it.

It\'s because you have to have defenders in the league. If you didn\'t have to have defensemen on your roster then Green wouldn\'t be near as good at all.

[Shoeless]

Sure - after the 75 point defender is gone there is a 60 point defender left and very few of those. After the 100 point goalie is gone there is a 95 point goalie left and the drop off to 90 still sees some goalies to choose from.

Which would you rather have Dutch

1. 75 point defender and a 90 point goalie or

2. A 55 point defender and a 100 point goalie?


Considering how many games Green could play that would be a 75 point D man with upside.

[doulos]

It would be interesting to put a mock draft together with people who would all try different strategies on purpose (best points available regardless of position vs taking positions into account etc) and see what happens based on last years points.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Why do that when someone has already done it?

Player value, when positions matter, can\'t be looked at in absolute terms or your team will suffer. You need to find a point of comparison (I like to look at averages).

JHM turned me on to this a while ago, and it\'s turned my performance in and understanding of fantasy hockey on its head.

If your average forward scores 75, average defenseman 40, and average goaltender 65, then:

- a 75 point defenseman is worth 35 \"effective\" points
- a 75 point goaltender is worth 10 \"effective\" points
- a 75 point forward is worth 0 \"effective\" points

Obviously, your league setup determines your point of comparison at each position. There will always be GMs who look at a 100 point forward as being more valuable than even a 75 point defenseman. But don\'t be fooled...

[NordiqueFan]

for my case i pick a goalie or green because hard to replace good goalie or top defense many good forward will be available at your next pick...

pts only do you have diffecence between goal, assist, ppp, shp...

[STONE.]

hockeypoolgeek! What an interesting site. Thanks. If I had Karma, you\'d get one. I\'ll try to remember next time I\'m loaded.

[doulos]

Yeah quite the interesting analysis on that website. Some questions I have but overall a helpful little experiment.

[hockeyislife]

Great thread, which made me think for a second as to who is the best player to take with the 4th pick.

At first, Green seemed like the no-brainer. He is the premiere offensive d-man in fantasy hockey, especially with a system that is just straight points. However.....

Green had 73 points last season; that placed him 30th overall in league scoring, and was tops among d-men. However, with the scoring system based here he was 42nd in scoring; twelve goalies had more points then he did.

While I agree with the argument that getting Green makes your D scoring better, what you need is the 12 best players combined. Taking Green at #4, and passing over many 90+ point players doesn\'t make sense to me.

Based on LAST YEAR\'s scoring Nabakov gets 103 points or the same as Sidney Crosby. While I like Green to get close to 80 this year, I\'ll take those extra 20 points from Nabakov.

Another reason to pass on Green early. Green and the #2 scoring D man got a combined 137 points. The #15 & #16 d-men got 92, a difference of 45 points. That difference is 78 points based on the same two sets of LW, 72 at C, 66 at G and 42 at RW. You will gain more points on your opponents by drafting the top players at other positions than at D.

[doulos]

Awesome. It\'s clear as the coffee still sitting in the pot from this morning,

[Shoeless]

Numbs the brain how folks figure things out so differently. It\'s like we aren\'t even talking about the same issue.

[Nieuwendyk]

Just speaking from life experiences. No math or fancy averages, which I did enjoy hockeypoolgeek.

I\'m more of a roto guy and have much success at it, but some buds convinced me to join their H2H league a few years ago and it\'s a completely different beast. I planned my first H2H draft like how I would for a roto league and was a middling team that whiffed out in the playoffs. Ironically, I won my roto league at the same time.

Lesson learned? Consistency was the key factor. Overall, my players were the best and had the highest point totals by the end of the season, but I didn\'t get the big points for the weeks I needed them.

Green may well be the best dman, but rarely have I seen any dmen make an impact in H2H in comparison to a forward or goalie. Just for arguments sake: I rather have Getzlaf/Datsyuk at that #4 slot + a late dman before Green + a middling forward because I know they will consistently bank points each week versus banking points in spurts.

Now getting back on topic, I would not hesitate and choose a goalie at the 4th slot because top consistent goalies are far and fewer and harder to find in the later rounds. Lundy, Nabby and Broduer (he still plays good?) would get my nod before Green.

Rarely will a Thomas clone show up and save your team\'s goaltending woes...

[Shoeless]

Nieuwendyk - you\'re right that you want consistency - you might not want to go compare the consistency of the three players you named for last year, because it doesn\'t appear to support your argument. Green never went 4 games without a point - did Getz and Dats - uh huh. Did Getz score 5 in one game and 4 in another - uh huh. Did Dats score 4 in a game - uh huh. Did Green ever score more than 3 in a game - uh uh.

I daresay the numbers indicate that Green was more consistent than Getz and as consistent as Datsyuk.

[joos]

Very interest point guys.

Another point you may factor in is the chances Green will repeat with 70ish points. I question if he can get another 70+ season but then again, I questioned him last yr too. Also, what could his possible ceiling for next season be... 80-85 pts?

I still say Luongo is the best bet. Last season... 33 wins, 9 SHO = 93 pts... and he missed a few games. Say he starts like 70-75 games next year... 38 wins... 7 SHO = 97 pts... and I think those were conservative predictions. He could very well hit 40+ wins with 6-9 SHO. Hes had 5,6,9 SHO in the past 3 season.