Who is the first after the big tree?

[Tanzer]

8 teams, 18 players, one year, head to head.
point only.Goalie = 2 points win and 3 points SO

3C 3L 3R 6D 3G
we dress
2C 2L 2R 4D 2G by week

I have the fourth pick. I\'am sure Crosby, Malkin and Ovie are gonna gone after that.

I think I\'ll go with Green but i\'am not sure. May be a goalie?

[Maaaasquito]

D\'s would be too early I think... I\'d go after D fairly early because with only 72 forwards taken most of the forwards are going to produce similar numbers anyways, but the 4th overall pick would be too early to waste for a D. I\'d happily go for a D with the 13th pick though...

What I would probably consider is a goalie at 4, with 2 points for a win and 3 for a SO, a 40 win, 5 SO goalie, would tally 95 points, which would be fairly close compared to offense anyways. The thing is a 40 win, 5 SO goalie would be harder to find in the later rounds than say a 85 point offensive player, which is why I would probably try to go after a goalie.

Now the question is who has 40 win, 5 SO potential... Nabby, Brodeur, Luongo, Kipper, Lundy?

Would any of them still be around at 13?

[Dean Youngblood]

After Sid, Malkin and Ovie these are the players I would consider...

Players: Thornton, Lecavalier, Getzlaf, Kovalchuk
Dman: Green
Goalies: Nabokov, Miller or Luongo

[Shoeless]

I think the math is pretty simple if you look at points drop off rates by position. Green pretty much has a 15 point spread on any D man. This is simply not the case for forwards and while there is a drop off from the premiere goalies - the pool is larger to pick from at the higher end.

Green makes a lot of sense to me in this particular league - if guys go crazy on goalies after your pick then that leaves a lot of pretty high end forwards. With Green I think you a grabbing a logical number 4 pick in this particular league setup. You will have time to grab pretty decent goaltending.

[joos]

I would take a goalie or forward. I personally am against getting Green @ 4th overall. Gotlaid makes some good points about a goalie. Although after reading that recent article, only 2 goalies had 40+ wins (Kipper and Nabbie).

I personally would get Luongo or Lundqvist (the later more for a long-term build). With Luongo, even a pretty safe projection of 35 wins and 5 SHO gives you 85 pts. Hes had SHO of 4,6,9 during the past 3 yrs so even prediction 7-8 SHO would be reasonable. So I would predict like 85-95 pts from him.

Either that or get a top forward like the ones Youngblood mentioned... maybe not Getzlaf since you dont count PIM, although he still does have 90+ pt potential.

[pudge]

I\'m with Shoeless...
Green is far and away the best pick in the 4 spot in your pool system...
He lead all defencemen by 9 points and played 68 games... 10 less than Markov and Lidstrom who were behind him in 2nd and 3rd... He\'s also miles younger than any of them and still getting better on a young team who are still getting better... he\'s capable of leading Dmen by 20+ but at least looks to land at least 10 ahead....

No Goalie or Forward is that far separated from the field... it\'s a no brainer.

The other upside is you can really put some pressure on everyone else to follow suit early on the D men... all it takes is for someone to take Markov behind you and you\'ll have a round of D men and goalies being picked... anytime you can put pressure on teams and make them feel like they need to follow suit positionally is great for you.

Also with a 6 to 4 F to D ratio Dmen are actually pretty important so you\'re also gaining there..

3 Goalies by 8 teams brings you to 24 G\'s total... Guaranteed people are going to make mispicks in this position taking backups or splittime G\'s who don\'t end up playing... so you could pick middle of the pack and still have strong enough numbers in net that I would say letting the big goalies slip past you is fine....

[natgeo]

I concur with Shoeless and Pudge. Green makes the most sense here because of the points spread versus other defensemen.

I won our league last year with Steve Mason and a few \"mid-range\" goalies in net, so there\'s no reason you can\'t do the same. Guys like Biron and Huet and Khabibulin.

[93213]

I would grab Luongo, depending on what Vancouver looks like after the summer. Otherwise Nabby.

If you grab Green with your 4th pick then the 5th pick is Getzlaf then you just gave 20 points to a competitor. I get what people are saying about having a point per game D, but points are points and with my 4th pick over all I don\'t want a player who maxes out at 80 points and doesn\'t take a lot of PIM... nor is he considered consistent yet. I drafted Phaneuf early last season and it was a wasted pick.

Especially if it is a snake draft. You\'ll have the 4th and the 20th pick, so your top picks are going to be Green and Ward? While others have Thornton and Morrow for example? Good luck.

The top ten picks should be huge point studs, not an 80 point guy, regardless of his position. When you\'re sitting in 3rd place at the end of the season bragging that you drafted an 80 point D, the guy in 1st who drafted Luongo or Getzlaf or Thornton after you will just smile as they take your money....

[STONE.]

93213 wrote:

If you grab Green with your 4th pick then the 5th pick is Getzlaf then you just gave 20 points to a competitor. I get what people are saying about having a point per game D, but points are points and with my 4th pick over all I don\'t want a player who maxes out at 80 points and doesn\'t take a lot of PIM... nor is he considered consistent yet. I drafted Phaneuf early last season and it was a wasted pick.

I\'m not sure I like this logic. Grabbing Green over Getz isn\'t giving up 20 points to the guy with Getz. It\'s gaining when Green outscores the next d-man by 20.

Grab Green and gain 20 on the next D-man in the NHL, then grab a forward that puts up ten fewer than Getz when the guy with Getz is taking his first D and you\'ve gained overall.

Sure, Green could have a rough year (like Phaneuf as mentioned), but so could whichever F you grab. Bad luck is bad luck.

Go with Green. To me, the only other option is a goalie, but I\'d gamble on there\'s still being a quality starter in the next round or two.

[pudge]

93213 wrote:

I would grab Luongo, depending on what Vancouver looks like after the summer. Otherwise Nabby.

If you grab Green with your 4th pick then the 5th pick is Getzlaf then you just gave 20 points to a competitor. I get what people are saying about having a point per game D, but points are points and with my 4th pick over all I don\'t want a player who maxes out at 80 points and doesn\'t take a lot of PIM... nor is he considered consistent yet. I drafted Phaneuf early last season and it was a wasted pick.
u\'
Especially if it is a snake draft. You\'ll have the 4th and the 20th pick, so your top picks are going to be Green and Ward? While others have Thornton and Morrow for example? Good luck.

The top ten picks should be huge point studs, not an 80 point guy, regardless of his position. When you\'re sitting in 3rd place at the end of the season bragging that you drafted an 80 point D, the guy in 1st who drafted Luongo or Getzlaf or Thornton after you will just smile as they take your money....

I couldn\'t disagree more...
1. it\'s points only. PIM\'s don\'t count.
2. Phaneuf is no Mike Green.
3. \"you just gave 20 points to a competitor\" is just not true. You just gained 20 points on all the GM\'s in 5-8 spots... 1-3 got the big guns so yeah you still have some ground to make up on them...
4. If it\'s snake draft doesn\'t even change much cause he\'s in the 4 spot out of 8 teams... he wouldn\'t have 4th and 20th... he\'d have 4th and 13th... as opposed to 4th and 12th...
5.Throwing out the names Green and Ward vs Thornton and Morrow is ridiculous... where are you getting those names from? They are all completely random (except Green) and have 0 bearing on this whole discussion... it doesn\'t prove anything...

Just so wrong on so many points...

[Dutch]

I think the logic to pick Green is just not there.

It\'s a points only league. Therefore, at EACH and EVERY draftpick you own, you should go with the player who yields you the most points in the season.

With that being said, you HAVE to pick a goalie, that will get you around big 3 pts. That being said, I think you have to go with Luongo or Lundqvist, or Nabokov.

Now as for which goalie to pick, I would wait out and see what team looks the best at the start of the season.

Since it\'s a 1 year league, age doesn\'t matter nothing.

[STONE.]

Although it\'s a points only league, most points is relative.

You MUST have 4 d-men. Green is the best of the d-men by a fair margin. You can\'t count D points as equal to F points.

Your league starts 16 centers. (8 teams x 2 each).
Datsyuk (the best center after Crosby and Malkin) would be 26 points better than the 16th best starting center (or the worst) in your league this year.

Parise was 29 points better than the 16th best LW

Iginla was 28 better than the 16th best RW.

Mike Green outscored the 16th best d-man by 28 (and he only played 68 games -- prorated without injury and he puts up 43 more).

I didn\'t figure goalies, but don\'t equate Green\'s ppg pace as equal to a forward\'s ppg pace -- they don\'t compare.

[oasiswings1]

Hmmmm this really is a tough question. In a keeper league than yes I agree grab the next best stud and after the big three I believe its Green.

However, in a one year league I tend to prefer the sure thing, the safe pick, at least with my 1st round pick. I would be tempted to draft Datsyuk or Getzlaf(i hate tiny joe and therefore cant ever draft him) with this pick and try for Lidstrom or Gonchar with my next pick in this case being 13th and most likely one of, if not both still being available. Or, you can grab a stud goalie and start a run which more often than not happens in a one year league snake draft.

[doulos]

Given that it\'s points only I think Mike Green is far and away the best pick in this situation. Not much need to explain.

If you want a good explanation then I am sure Dobberhockey\'s own JHM would be willing to give you his \"Above the Bar\" explanation which in my mind clearly explains why taking Green makes the most sense here.

(Now watch JHM log in and disagree with me!)

[joos]

STONE. wrote:

Although it\'s a points only league, most points is relative.

You MUST have 4 d-men. Green is the best of the d-men by a fair margin. You can\'t count D points as equal to F points.

Your league starts 16 centers. (8 teams x 2 each).
Datsyuk (the best center after Crosby and Malkin) would be 26 points better than the 16th best starting center (or the worst) in your league this year.

Parise was 29 points better than the 16th best LW

Iginla was 28 better than the 16th best RW.

Mike Green outscored the 16th best d-man by 28 (and he only played 68 games -- prorated without injury and he puts up 43 more).

I didn\'t figure goalies, but don\'t equate Green\'s ppg pace as equal to a forward\'s ppg pace -- they don\'t compare.

very interesting analysis. But there is no guarantee that each team will have 2 of the top player in each position. If it was guaranteed that everyone got 2 of the best 16 players in each position, then yes, taking Green would probably be the best situation.

I understand the idea of relative points, but the FACT is that d-man points dont differ from forward points.

I will lessen my stance on getting a forward or goalie before a d-man but you bring a very interest point, a point I knew about but you presented it very well lol.