NHL Draft Lottery - May 7

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, tough to speculate much about which players win/lose because of the lottery, because I think you can try to piece together how SJ comes out of it, but I don't think Demidov to CHI Is a lock. Levshunov would look really good there, and those other F's you mentioned earlier are another reason to look at D. Taking the long view, this is the draft where Chicago locks up their top pair Dman of the future, with the 2025 draft being the spot where they get their second special forward to pair with Bedard. Chi is going to be bad again, and the top of next year's draft is F heavy. I think they take the unicorn Dman here, are bad another year, take their big forward in 2025 (another top-4 pick) and then start to move up the standings from there.

So how I would outline the top-10 picks right now:
Sj - Celebrini - Duh.
Chi - Levshunov - As mentioned, they get their D, might hurt Korchinski, might not. Fs get a year to develop before they bring in Hagens/Misa/Martone/Frondell.
Ana - Silayev - Get a big D to compliment puck movers in the system. F's are crowded already anyways. A Zegras or Gibso trade could change things.
Cbj - Demidov - They have D and F prospects, so just best guy available. Tough to overthink this.
Mtl - Lindstrom - They want a C, and Lindstrom's size gives a dynamic that their lineup doesn't have.
Utah - Buium - Feels like they would take the best D left on the board. Debatable who that actually is though.
Ott - Dickinson - Need a RD, and maybe Dickinson can play there as they need an all-around guy, not an offence guy like the remaining righties Parehk and Yak are.
Sea - Catton - They need some dynamism at the top.of the lineup.
Cgy - Iginla - Kind of hard not to put this here.
NJ (Trades away the pick) - Yakemchuk - someone trades up to get a big, offensive RD.

Leaves Parehk, Helenius, Eiserman as the guys to get mopped up into the early teens.

[PenguinHunter]

Oh sorry for a tongue in cheek comment my apologies sir.

You never know with some of you Leafs fans.

[Pengwin7]

^Good list. Other than Levshunov(2) and Demidov(4)... I could see it.
CHI/Davidson went a tad "off-the-board" for Korchinski, IMO... somebody on their scouting department absolutely LOVES his playmaking upside.
Though - having a top pair of Korchinski(LH)-Levshunov(RH) would be good for pairing #1 and for a 3F/2D PP1 unit.

Bobby Mac suggests a near consensus #2... which is Demidov.


BobbyMac had good twitter post about why he ranked 15.
Said that the scouts-combined-list had a "cliff" there...

I like your top 10.
I, too, think BUF/PHI are looking at that trio.

Parekh is the guy I'm most intrigued/concerned by.
From highlights I've watched... I could see his game not translating to the NHL.
I've got some TonyDeAngleo / CalenAddison / Dennis Cholowski concern there on the two-way game.

[This said - Parekh shows up #7 on BobbyMac's list... and BobbyMac says - in his tweet - that 7 players showed up in the top12 list of all TEN scouts. So... is Parekh on ALL ten? Or was Buium? Or Helenius - but just with many lower ranks (7-10)??? I could see 8-9 scouts ranking Parekh high - on the stats - and 1-2 having "doubts" and not listing him. I've seen Parekh on some lists OUTSIDE a top 12.]


Hockey has become very fast, with elite skaters in last 5 years.
A lot of smaller-side D (6'-) are lighting up CHL/NCAA leagues offensively...
And then struggling out their D-side in the NHL.
[I'm super interested to see how Lane Hutson handles a full NHL season, defensively.]

I'm super curious what BUF (completely loaded at F... and awesome top4D now: Dahlin/Sam Power/Byram) do at #11.
PHI - IMO - doesn't need Eiserman... they have those players already in Farabee/Foerster.

I'd be fine with Helenius. (but I see some mocks that love him).

For fantasy, those top13 are pretty solid... though I expect Silyayev will be allowed to fall in same vein as Simashev last year.
KHL is tough league to read offensive-upside of young D.
If you ain't Nikishin-ing it... you ain't exciting me!

[Eskimo Brother]

I think last year some people didn't see Simashev with the same puck skills that they see Silayev as having. No idea how accurate that is, but I think Silayev goes higher as a result.

I liked Bobby Mac's breakdown on those 15 too, was definitely interesting to see that. Sennecke and his play of late could really push up someone's board like Cowan did last year with the recency bias. Especially if they can take out Cowan and his London Knights in the OHL finals that are about to start. Still have a tough time seeing him in the top 10 though.

For Philly specifically, I think Helenius would be a good situation, otherwise you're hoping someone like Buium or Yakemchuk fall. Parekh I agree seems to have some translatability concerns, but some guys like Wheeler (who in my preliminary research has an excellent track record in the NHL top-10) does really like Parekh there.
Buffalo confounds it at 11 as well, as they likely grab a Dman. Maybe Philly makes a move to swap 12 and something for 10 in order to grab Yakemchuk before Buffalo does, as the Sabres could REALLY use another RD.

[Pengwin7]

I've soured on Wheeler - he overrates everything "regional" to him - which is the Michigan/Ontario 401 corridor - OHL guys, USNTDP (Ann Arbor), U-Michigan (Ann Arbor).
This includes Saginaw, Michigan (Parekh).
He also overvalues offense to defense.

I stopped reading him 2-3 years ago.
I'm always interested in everybody's rankings - but he's a "no weight" for me now.


Spot-sampling/nit-picking:
Hamilton's Jan Mysak in 2020: https://theathletic.com/1736440/2020...100-prospects/
The more I watched Mysak as the year progressed, the more I fell in love with his skill set.
Mysak ended up going 48th overall - which tells a lot about what actual NHL GMs thought about same player.

Meanwhile, Seth Jarvis (WHL), Mercer (Q), Jake Sanderson (D-man)... all too far down the list.

[Eskimo Brother]

Funny you nitpick 2020, as from 2013 to 2019, in the 25 or so scouts that I have lists for in that time, he was actually the "best" in ranking the top-10 of the draft. Then, add in the 2020 draft, and he was awful there, the bottom of the bottom of the pack, and the drops down to average overall. Too early to rank anything more recent than 2020 though, and even those players still have runway to burn.

All that to say, he has a solid track record with one bad year in my records. He definitely could have a lean towards OHL/Michigan/USNTDP guys, but that's also where a lot of top players are coming out of right now. It's an art not a science, and with these public scouts, no one is even close to perfect.

When looking at the top-30 in a draft, Wheeler has been... not great over the last number of years. It is fascinating to me though that from 2013 to 2019 there was such a discrepancy in Wheeler being one of the best in the top-10, and then not in the top-30.

[Pengwin7]

(oh - interesting - I actually typed in a random year and looked at the list. I was not excluding his better years intentionally - I honestly picked one at random to see if he up-hyped any local players and down-graded any further or D players. Most prospect gurus, like Button, have certain trends. I would say I noticed it as a subscriber to theathletic - which was 2021, 2022 ish too... but I shall stop here.)

[Eskimo Brother]

Definitely could be the case in 2021/2022 as well but I haven't looked into it yet and have no numbers there.

[Daydream Nation]

Yeah, tough to speculate much about which players win/lose because of the lottery, because I think you can try to piece together how SJ comes out of it, but I don't think Demidov to CHI Is a lock. Levshunov would look really good there, and those other F's you mentioned earlier are another reason to look at D. Taking the long view, this is the draft where Chicago locks up their top pair Dman of the future, with the 2025 draft being the spot where they get their second special forward to pair with Bedard. Chi is going to be bad again, and the top of next year's draft is F heavy. I think they take the unicorn Dman here, are bad another year, take their big forward in 2025 (another top-4 pick) and then start to move up the standings from there.

I like your thinking here. If the two players are close, you take the D. Having a top 4 with Levshunov, Korchinski, Vlassic, and Jones could be Cup-worthy if Levshunov and Korchinski approach their projections. Plus, the Hawks have quite a few B-level D prospects that could produce a suprise or late bloomer. The Hawks also have Tampa's 20th pick and 3 2nd rounders so they will be adding more prospects or possibly trading up with the 20th pick. I love draft talk!

[GinFizz]

i think if eiserman is there for NJ, they are taking him.

[DangerCat]

Yzerman selects Eiserman.

Oh gosh yes please!

[Feenom]

No way Iggy makes it to 9, I’d be surprised.

[Axeman33]

No way Iggy makes it to 9, I’d be surprised.

Really? I wont be surprised if he falls outside the top 10.

Every year we see teams reach for Dmen and there's already a boatload that are expected to go in the top 10, let alone the surprises we dont see coming yet. Simashev is a perfect example of that last year. I dont know of anyone who releases a public list had him as a top 10 pick last year. Someone like Jiricek, who's not expected to be in the top 10 could easily be a surprise pick and jump a lot of forwards. Yakemchuk will probably be a top 10 pick even though he's borderline top 10 right now.

When it comes to forwards, the only ones I am confident who will be selected in the top 10 are Celebrini, Demidov and Lindstrom. After that, it's a crap shoot for the forwards. Guys like Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, Sennecke could go in any order.

[Daydream Nation]

Really? I wont be surprised if he falls outside the top 10.

Every year we see teams reach for Dmen and there's already a boatload that are expected to go in the top 10, let alone the surprises we dont see coming yet. Simashev is a perfect example of that last year. I dont know of anyone who releases a public list had him as a top 10 pick last year. Someone like Jiricek, who's not expected to be in the top 10 could easily be a surprise pick and jump a lot of forwards. Yakemchuk will probably be a top 10 pick even though he's borderline top 10 right now.

When it comes to forwards, the only ones I am confident who will be selected in the top 10 are Celebrini, Demidov and Lindstrom. After that, it's a crap shoot for the forwards. Guys like Catton, Iginla, Eiserman, Helenius, Sennecke could go in any order.

I agree with this. I'd be surprised if Iginla goes in the top 10. Teams covet D and C. Catton and probably Helenius go before Iginla. They'll be a good wing that ends up falling that will be there in the mid to late teens.

[Axeman33]

I agree with this. I'd be surprised if Iginla goes in the top 10. Teams covet D and C. Catton and probably Helenius go before Iginla. They'll be a good wing that ends up falling that will be there in the mid to late teens.

Yep. Good point!