Twin Goalie Towers - Keeper Conumdrum

[Melloj]

So I have won the league in the sig below second year in a row and now have a bit of a conundrum with my keepers. I have Demko and Helley to thank in large part for my win and it would be great to keep them again (Demko at a 3rd round pick cost and Hellebyuck at a 2nd round pick cost). But the problem is that I also have Kucherov costing a 4th round pick to keep. This is a problem as the league rules only allow 2 players to be kept with a keeper cost in rounds 1 to 5.

But I can't not pick Kuch at 4th, right. Then the question becomes who do I take, Demko with the bigger keeper discount at 3rd round pick cost or Helley with a 2nd round keeper cost. I know Helley will go in the first round next year if not kept. I also suspect Demko would as well (but later than Helley).

My keepers (can only keep 6) at this point are:

Helley or Demko - 2nd or 3rd
Kucherov - 4th
Eriksson Ek - 6th
Dobson - 7th
Robertson - 11th

So two questions:

(1) which of Helly or Demko to keep
(2) who's the last keeper of following (in order of keeper cost):

Montour (6th)
Konecny (10th)
Montembeault (13th)
Bennett (15th)
Wilson (15th)
Allen (18th)
Drouin (18th)
D Strome (18th)
Zacha (18th)

I haven't listed Fiala (5th), Crosby (1st) , Stone (3rd), Josi (1st), Seider (3rd) or Trouba (5th) as they would all be excluded by the two keepers in rounds 1-5 rule (plus don't have a 5th round pick to keep Fiala/Trouba)

[Eskimo Brother]

May seem inconsequential, but is this a ROTO or H2H?

[Melloj]

May seem inconsequential, but is this a ROTO or H2H?

I always find new things to add to my sig based on these questions haha - it's H2H.

[Eskimo Brother]

Haha. The H2H vs Roto always makes a big difference to me with the strategy of needing to cover all the categories vs covering a majority of the categories.

In a 12 team league, I would consider not keeping either Demko or Helle at a top-30 keeper cost. Demko is injury prone, and I think VAN peaked this year, and Helle is extremely variable year to year.

With that said, I would consider for your six keepers Kuch, JEE, Dobson, Robertson, Konecny, and Wilson. No goalie at all, and you can make that up later on top of an absolutely stacked skater core. Or you redraft whichever of the goalies falls to round two, and then it's like you kept one of them but also upgrade a much later pick.

[Gretzky99Orr4]

I don't think it's the hard. It's Helly and Kuch for sure.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Where do you pick in each round? This matters, since if it's a snake draft then with you being the winner Hellebuyck would replace a 13th overall pick but Demko a 36th overall pick and Kucherov a 37th overall pick. All things being equal, Hellbuyck would be the keep over Demko, but with a 23 pick differential keeper cost, it probably should be Demko, as you should be able to get someone with value far closer to Hellbuyck at 13 than you would to Demko at 36.

[Melloj]

Where do you pick in each round? This matters, since if it's a snake draft then with you being the winner Hellebuyck would replace a 13th overall pick but Demko a 36th overall pick and Kucherov a 37th overall pick. All things being equal, Hellbuyck would be the keep over Demko, but with a 23 pick differential keeper cost, it probably should be Demko, as you should be able to get someone with value far closer to Hellbuyck at 13 than you would to Demko at 36.

Since I took the league, I'm picking 12th in first round, 1st in second round (so 13th overall), 12th in third round (so 36th overall) and 1st in fourth round (so 37th overall) etc. as you say.

The calculus suggest Demko as the more valuable pick, but it's hard and goalies really do win championships in this league, especially volume guys since you can offset a bad week from your forwards with a volume week from goalies.

What would you say for the second question, i.e. who would I pick as my 6th guy (assuming off-season trading is not very easy to get here):

Montour (6th)
Konecny (10th)
Montembeault (13th)
Bennett (15th)
Wilson (15th)
Allen (18th)
Drouin (18th)
D Strome (18th)
Zacha (18th)

[RizzeeDizzee]

For your sixth guy, probably Strome or Zacha. Solid value either way.

[Eskimo Brother]

If you're going goalie anyways I take Wilson as number six for the category coverage

[TheDard]

I am between 3 guys for that last spot.
Zacha, Drouin or Strome.
Drouin is the bigger wild card of the 3, as he may not re-sign with the Avs
Their value at 18th is solid.

As for goalie situation. I personally like Helly more and think he carries better value. As Rizzee pointed out the value in pick difference between Demko and Helly. Might make it a more promising choice to keep Demko

[Bubba55]

I am between 3 guys for that last spot.
Zacha, Drouin or Strome.
Drouin is the bigger wild card of the 3, as he may not re-sign with the Avs
Their value at 18th is solid.

As for goalie situation. I personally like Helly more and think he carries better value. As Rizzee pointed out the value in pick difference between Demko and Helly. Might make it a more promising choice to keep Demko

I don't necessarily mind passing on Hellebuyck given the circumstances too much ... he is more consistent and has a better track record than Demko, but it's an acceptable risk IMO. That said, it is a risk.

I like Bennett, Wilson and Zacha as your last keeper options. I like the idea of covering off some of the roto cats here and that narrows it down to Bennett or Wilson. I personally like Bennett; I'm thinking Wilson's prime time days and idiocy are coming to an end and Bennett is a younger and more stable option who actually checks off more boxes than Wilson these days.