Points Only - Ranking Some Top Prospects - REP Given!

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Hey All,

For the bottom team in my sig, I've got one pickup left and can use it to grab another prospect if there's one out there better than my current choices. We can keep minors for 100GP, plus carry them forward for free one year after they hit 100GP if we keep them in the minors the rest of that season (my plan with Cooley next year).

I'm currently keeping these 5 (rankied in my perceived order):

Michkov
Cooley
Hutson
Perreault
Mateychuk

But I could pick up any of these (ranked in my perceived order):

Leonard
Savoie
Nikishin
Cristall
Dvorsky
McGroarty

Should I grab one of these guys and drop Mateychuk? If so, who? Or just stick with what I have? I'm just aiming for high end upside here - not for "reliable production".

My main keepers are strong and getting even stronger next season, so I'm not worried about my minors joining the NHL soon. It's actually better for me if they cook in the minors an extra year or two, delaying when they hit 100GP.

Side Question: I'm also likely able to get Celebrini in the upcoming draft, if I choose to select him over Dahlin, Josi or Miller. What would you guys do in that situation? Thanks!

[Pengwin7]

For me, you go with Nikishin because the CAR defense is aging or being UFA soon.
A possible big multi-cat PP1 D-man... yes, sir.

Ryan Leonard is a very fine pick too for multi-cat.
Savoie would be my preferred pick for straight-up points.


Any of these guys over Mateychuk, yes.

[senryu]

Nikishin instead of Mateychuk for me.

[Bubba55]

Nikishin, Savoie and Leonard over Mateychuk for me. In fact, I prefer those three over Perreault as well. Personally, I'd swap out Mateychuk and Perreault for Nikishin and Leonard. Savoie for points, yes, but the log jam of high end young forwards in Buffalo makes me a bit nervous.

With the keepers you have, and if you have the potential for a very good draft (picks and ya actually know what you're doing ... insert the smiley face) then passing on those three vets for Celebrini is an absolute option, one that I'd probably pursue. You don't get the chance to draft a guy like that every year, last year with Bedard and this year with Celebrini, that doesn't happen on a regular basis. It's risky for sure, but nothing ventured nothing gained (:

[BlackhawksFan]

I would go Nikishin or Leonard as well.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Thanks everyone! Sounds like everyone is thinking Nikishin over Mateychuk, and that’s likely what I’ll do. But first, mind if I ask why? I generally just go off Dobber Prospects charts of expected points rates. Is it mostly because of upcoming team situations, regarding Hurricanes vs Blue Jackets? Or more of one player being better than the other? Thanks!

[senryu]

I really like Mateychuk, but he has Werenski and maybe Jiricek with which to contend. As mentioned above, Carolina doesn't really have a standout scoring D at the moment and Nikishin has shown well in the KHL. The pieces for him to step into and assume a scoring role in the coming years seem to be in place.

[jman]

I'm taking Leonard over Perreault in a heart beat.

I'd also probably go with Nikishin over Mateychuk too, due to opportunity.

I might be in the minority here but I'd also consider Dvorsky over Hutson.

[Pengwin7]

Team situations - yes, for me.
A guy can... sometimes, get out from underneath that... but opportunity is HUGE.

With Carolina, just take a peak at their guys... top 7D are all UFA this summer or next.
So are Teuvo & Guentzel... Necas and Jarvis are going to be commanding ENORMOUS RFA contracts.

Best thing to do is to have a RFA-level player slot-in.
So that's Nikishkin.
And the KHL is a good league... a very, very dependable league... it's right there with AHL.
He'll score.


Mateychuk.
I mean... CHL numbers are good... but I don't trust CHL numbers like I trust AHL/KHL numbers.
Moose Jaw (WHL) is pretty loaded too... with Firkus and Yager and now Savoie...
I mean... Jagger Firkus is putting up 126pts in 63gp... tells you a lot about how "easy" it is to score in the WHL these days.
Great league for the "plus"-skating smart & smaller guys right now.

The comparable is to think about guys like Luca Cagnoni... or Graham Sward... or Hudson Thornton...
Similar overagers putting up huge numbers.
https://www.quanthockey.com/whl/en/s...men-stats.html



So... IDK... maybe he'll be great.
But I really don't see him displacing Werenski.
That said... so long as Werenski is healthy...


With average & small-height ish defensemen...
They still have to be solid defenders against NHL-level opposing forwards to get NHL minutes.

Case-in-point is a guy like Calen Addison.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...php?pid=191479
All signs of his WHL career suggested he was going to be future PP1 D-man for MIN... or then PIT... or then & now... SJ.
He even put up good scoring numbers in the AHL.
But even San Jose - if one really gets in there - they are leaning towards Henry Thrun & Shakir Mukh as their future D1/D2... much, much, MUCH moreso than Addison.
(In fact, I think Addison's days in the NHL are numbered... but that's another convo... 5 even-strength assists in 56gp... yeesh...)


But you do want to know, for sure, that a D-man can defend at the NHL level.
ELITE skaters - like a Quinn Hughes - seem to have made good transitions with average-size.
But if the guy doesn't have a rep as an ELITE skater... I'd rather have a bit more size to them.

To my knowledge Mateychk is good-to-great skater (some people use "plus")...
But I haven't ever read ELITE.

Some reading from when he was drafted.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/sport...an/7723051001/

Players can improve their skating...
But ELITE never usually develops late.
It's usually there from early CHL (ie age16)

For non-elite skating defensemen... I'll take the size (ex. Seider, Harley, Nikishin)... it still matters in the NHL.

Long way of saying - Nikishin, even with slightly less offensive upside - I still think is a "surer" bet than Mateychuk.
I'd rather have a 90% shot at 50+pt D-man (Nikishin) than a 50% shot at a 60+ pt D-man (Mateychuk)

That said - some leagues do require you to "hit on upside" to win.
If that's your league (which we don't know)... then you may want to stay with Mateychuk.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Team situations - yes, for me.
A guy can... sometimes, get out from underneath that... but opportunity is HUGE.

With Carolina, just take a peak at their guys... top 7D are all UFA this summer or next.
So are Teuvo & Guentzel... Necas and Jarvis are going to be commanding ENORMOUS RFA contracts.

Best thing to do is to have a RFA-level player slot-in.
So that's Nikishkin.
And the KHL is a good league... a very, very dependable league... it's right there with AHL.
He'll score.


Mateychuk.
I mean... CHL numbers are good... but I don't trust CHL numbers like I trust AHL/KHL numbers.
Moose Jaw (WHL) is pretty loaded too... with Firkus and Yager and now Savoie...
I mean... Jagger Firkus is putting up 126pts in 63gp... tells you a lot about how "easy" it is to score in the WHL these days.
Great league for the "plus"-skating smart & smaller guys right now.

The comparable is to think about guys like Luca Cagnoni... or Graham Sward... or Hudson Thornton...
Similar overagers putting up huge numbers.
https://www.quanthockey.com/whl/en/s...men-stats.html



So... IDK... maybe he'll be great.
But I really don't see him displacing Werenski.
That said... so long as Werenski is healthy...


With average & small-height ish defensemen...
They still have to be solid defenders against NHL-level opposing forwards to get NHL minutes.

Case-in-point is a guy like Calen Addison.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...php?pid=191479
All signs of his WHL career suggested he was going to be future PP1 D-man for MIN... or then PIT... or then & now... SJ.
He even put up good scoring numbers in the AHL.
But even San Jose - if one really gets in there - they are leaning towards Henry Thrun & Shakir Mukh as their future D1/D2... much, much, MUCH moreso than Addison.
(In fact, I think Addison's days in the NHL are numbered... but that's another convo... 5 even-strength assists in 56gp... yeesh...)


But you do want to know, for sure, that a D-man can defend at the NHL level.
ELITE skaters - like a Quinn Hughes - seem to have made good transitions with average-size.
But if the guy doesn't have a rep as an ELITE skater... I'd rather have a bit more size to them.

To my knowledge Mateychk is good-to-great skater (some people use "plus")...
But I haven't ever read ELITE.

Some reading from when he was drafted.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/sport...an/7723051001/

Players can improve their skating...
But ELITE never usually develops late.
It's usually there from early CHL (ie age16)

For non-elite skating defensemen... I'll take the size (ex. Seider, Harley, Nikishin)... it still matters in the NHL.

Long way of saying - Nikishin, even with slightly less offensive upside - I still think is a "surer" bet than Mateychuk.
I'd rather have a 90% shot at 50+pt D-man (Nikishin) than a 50% shot at a 60+ pt D-man (Mateychuk)

That said - some leagues do require you to "hit on upside" to win.
If that's your league (which we don't know)... then you may want to stay with Mateychuk.

Wow, thanks for all this Pengwin! Great stuff. I've gone ahead and picked up Nikishin. Since we are able to trade all summer, I grabbed him by dropping Quick and will spend the summer trying to trade away Mateychuk, Rossi, and some other pieces for future picks.

Thanks for the help everyone!

[Belexus75]

Personally i take bottom 3 from your list and replace with top 3 from the other list.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Personally i take bottom 3 from your list and replace with top 3 from the other list.

We only get 13 pickups all season and I just used up my last one, but that's good to know for next season! The "prospect" side of things is pretty under-utilized in our league, so I can often pick up some pretty solid prospects mid-season.

[TeamRamrod]

I have the exact same prospect pool as you. I would trade Mateychuk for Nikishin. In my draft Nikishin went right before my pick and Mateychuk was the consolation prize. Denton may pan out as a stud, but Nikishin looks to be ready now and in a great situation. Mateychuk will take some refining, and at best will be joining an average Bluejackets team. IMO.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I have the exact same prospect pool as you. I would trade Mateychuk for Nikishin. In my draft Nikishin went right before my pick and Mateychuk was the consolation prize. Denton may pan out as a stud, but Nikishin looks to be ready now and in a great situation. Mateychuk will take some refining, and at best will be joining an average Bluejackets team. IMO.

Thanks! That's exactly what I ended up doing. Nikishin also is a bit older and with D-men that seems to often help.