Early keeper thoughts after gutting finals loss (will rep)

[JaysFan]

For the team in signature, banger league keep 5 I just missed winning the title by either 2 goalie wins or 4 goals (goalies going 0/4 Monday Tuesday was gutting).

Lots of time until keeper decisions need to be made but never too early to think about it.

I don't draft until the 8th round so this year will be an uphill battle. I have a very multi-cat oriented team so I usually lost goals, assists, ppp but went undefeated this season until the final week when I was prepping my lineup for the first week of playoffs.

Do I for young upside with Byfield, Lafreniere, Johnston, McTavish or Cozens plus maybe a Shesterkin or Saros? (Askarov is an FA and could also be picked up) (This feels too risky even if some are starting to scratch that upside?)

Do I go established certainty with Eriksson Ek, Hischier, Eichel, McAvoy, Svechnikov, Shesterkin or Saros (too many pure Cs?) (who else is in this convo?)

Do I go pure banger Eriksson Ek, Jenner, Svechnikov, Hathaway and Seeler (this feels ridiculous but could work)

Arguments can be made for anyone that provides faceoffs from the wing - currently Jenner, Seguin, Johnston, Cozens, McTavish

Usually arguments can be made for Nurse and E. Kane but Kane really fell off in the 2nd half. Werenski had a great year.

I'm really not sure what approach to take and draft picks are notoriously difficult to trade for in the offseason.

Appreciate any and all thoughts.

[metaldude26]

I think the right approach is to continue treating this like a one-year type setup so draft the players you'd take in the top 5 rounds.

That means Eichel, Svechnikov, McAvoy and Shesterkin for sure. Saros would be in here too but I have a hard time getting behind 2 goalies in this setup. Eriksson Ek, wouldn't necessarily be a first 5 rounds pick, but he should be so he'd be my 5th keeper.

All your thoughts about being too pure C heavy and valuing FOW from the wing are in play here, but you really don't have room to massage the situation.

[Bubba55]

Shesterkin, Saros and Skinner cumulatively going 0 for 4. Very very nice, another fantasy season destroyed by the Goalies. Welcome to the club (:

So lets start with the Goalies. Normally I am a strong proponent of the Zero Goalie strategy meaning I'm not keeping any of these Flakes!! However, in your case I'm recommending that you keep Shesterkin. He is a 0 tier goalie, that's as good as it gets, and, you don't have the opportunity to draft a very solid goalie (I wouldn't think) in the 8th round. BTW, and this is a key point to consider for sure, your draft is going to make next year an uphill struggle, and maybe I have this wrong, but in a 12 team keep 5 league I just can't see how a team could possibly build a legit contender at the draft table when they are having to fill out over 75% of their roster when 100 players have already come off the board prior to your first pick. Ouch. I don't think this changes your no brainer keeps, but I would suggest when identifying your 5 you look not so much to winning next year but to the year after.

I fully agree with Metal here, in a keep 5 you typically have to keep the very best, there really isn't any wiggle room for "strategizing" with 5 keeps, the strategizing is for the draft. However, as discussed, I think you need to approach this with more of a "build" mentality rather than a "win now" mentality. Accordingly, I'm keeping Shesterkin, Eichel and Svech, all are elite and will still be in their prime when you are ready to compete the following year. I'm rounding out my 5 keeps with Byfield and Laffy, two young guys who are strongly trending upward, have huge upside and could fully hit that upside in 25-26. Hope this helps.

[TheDard]

I am kind of with Bubba.
Eichel, Svech, McAvoy and Shesterkin.
Then I am between Byfield or Laff for that 5th keeper.
Might be more inclined to Byfield. Though nice thing you have time to watch them bith finish the season and see their game in the playoffs too.

[JaysFan]

Thanks to everyone so far, I'm repping where I can.

Does it change the thought process if I tell you Ericksson Ek is ranked 14th overall even with the games he has missed?

It seems like a big factor for me is the 3 year upside of Lafreniere and Byfield. Both seem to be just scratching the surface - are they both 100+ point players? (Dobber guide last year had Laf at 110 point upside and Byfield at 92 I believe). Laf is hitting less than he used to and Byfield is hitting more.

Is Wyatt Johnston in the conversation with them? What he is doing at 20 seems super impressive.

[Bubba55]

I definitely like EEK and he is having a career year, but I have doubts that the stars align for him every year like they did this year and that he will be a top 15 own perennially in your league. I may be wrong here, but IMO Marco Rossi will be the number 1 C in Minnesota as early as next year and that will negatively impact EEK's production particularly on the PP. The Wild are one of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL and a player like Rossi could certainly help change things and help produce more offence which the Wild need. For those reasons, no, EEK is not a keeper for me. As a last point on this, you can draft a significant number of guys that will put up 1 hit per game or even better, but the chances of drafting elite NHL scoring talent is considerably less than filling out your roster with good bangers. If you have an elite scorer that fills the other scoring cats that's awesome, but in a keep 5, elite scorers having to be big peripheral producers should not be a prerequisite for keeping them IMO.

Dobbers projections of upside tend to be extremely optimistic, Dobber fully acknowledges this, when everything magically falls into place, yes Laffy could put up over 110 pts. That, however, is unlikely. What is far more likely is that both Byfield and Laffy hit their projected 3YP and expecting PPG from Laffy and PPG from Byfield is far more realistic than either of them hitting their Upside. PPG players do not grow on trees, they are elite, they should be keepers. What this really boils down to is whether you think both Laffy and Byfield are elite and will be PPG players? Most folks think they will, others are less sure. This is the quicksand associated with making fantasy hockey decisions based on projection rather than hard data and track record. There is risk. However, as the old saying goes, nothing ventured nothing gained. If you keep both Byfield and Laffy and they hit or exceed their 3YP next year or the year after you are a genius. If they don't develop as many expect, well, you're the goat. That's just the way it is.

As far as Wyatt Johnson goes, agreed, hugely impressive. I believe he has slightly less upside and 3YP than Byfield and Laffy, but the difference is pretty damn small, keeping him over one of the other two is arguably defensible. I wouldn't but he's certainly an option. I will say, that he is a "softer" player than the other two so I'm going with the guys who I think have a touch more offence a better fill the peripheral cats.

[random-d]

The problem with all 3 of Laff, Byfield, and Johnston is that they may not have a clear path to the #1 role at their positions. I'm a huge fan of Byfield and Johnston but they need to be top 60 players in your format and right now Johnston sits the highest in Yahoo rankings in a similar setup at #61. He does have RW eligibility and that's a huge plus, if you think Dallas loses one or both of Pavelski and Duchene this offseason than he could be worth the risk.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I’d go Eichel, Svech, Byfield, Shesty then either McAvoy or Saros.

[TheDard]

Thanks to everyone so far, I'm repping where I can.

Does it change the thought process if I tell you Ericksson Ek is ranked 14th overall even with the games he has missed?

It seems like a big factor for me is the 3 year upside of Lafreniere and Byfield. Both seem to be just scratching the surface - are they both 100+ point players? (Dobber guide last year had Laf at 110 point upside and Byfield at 92 I believe). Laf is hitting less than he used to and Byfield is hitting more.

Is Wyatt Johnston in the conversation with them? What he is doing at 20 seems super impressive.

Wyatt is in this conversation. As pointed out by "random-d" Dallas could see both Pavelski and Duchene leave after this season. So that is certainly a watch and shoot.

However I believe that Byfield has the easiest path to Top 6 and more likely 1st line deployment over Laff and Wyatt.
He has spent 58% of his time with Kempe & Kopitar. Byfield also currently has all 3 fwd spots for eligibility on Yahoo. Laff is dual wing and Wyatt is C/RW.

As for JEE, I can certainly see reason to keeping him. 4th straight season with over 100 hits (new career high this yr), 3rd straight season over 200 shots (career high this season). 1st 30 goal season, on a 70pt pace for 82 games. He will win you high 600's to low 800's in Faceoffs. 6th straight season of improvement for overall pts. 3rd straight season with at least 12 PPG. At worest JEE plays with Boldy (that can still pay out). Be best if he keeps playing with Krill & Boldy.

So best advice; at seasons end take at look at each player on their own. Then compare their stats against each other, then look at their team situation and look at where they fit in this season and what could be the fit for them next season.
If you have time until actual NHL free agency to make your keeper picks, even better. Lets you see how teams shake out come end season and free agency.