Skinner #4 Dynasty Goalie

[BreadManPanarin]

I acquired Skinner in my dynasty league in mid-January. I was pleasantly surprised to see Dobber had him ranked #8 on the dynasty goalie rankings by end of January, but yesterday I checked again and he is #4 on the February rankings, which seems wild to me.

Anybody have thoughts on the rationale for him being so high? Would be interested to hear them.

[Daydream Nation]

He wouldn't be #4 on my rankings.

[Gretzky99Orr4]

He's on a great team and so young to be a starter. Still seems high but probably in the range.

[metaldude26]

The thing you must keep in mind is that the Dobber rankings are for points only setups with a lean towards the current season so you are only looking at Wins and Shutouts in the short term. Since the Oilers fired their head coach no one has more wins than he does and he has kept pace with a couple of shutouts. So you're looking at a 25-year-old starter who starts just about every game but the back-to-backs on a loaded team that continues to go all-in whose GM has indicated that they are comfortable with their goalies (which means no competition for the starting gig) and is signed for two more seasons matching the McDavid timeline. So for the near future he is in a plum spot, looking like a safe bet to challenge for the league lead in wins. No he isn't the #4 pure talent goalie but he is definitely in the top-5 for goalies if I want Wins in the near future. There are a lot of better goalies on worse teams or stuck in tandem situations. Are there 4-5 other goalies with a better shot at 40+ wins over the next couple seasons than Skinner?

[Daydream Nation]

The thing you must keep in mind is that the Dobber rankings are for points only setups with a lean towards the current season so you are only looking at Wins and Shutouts in the short term. Since the Oilers fired their head coach no one has more wins than he does and he has kept pace with a couple of shutouts. So you're looking at a 25-year-old starter who starts just about every game but the back-to-backs on a loaded team that continues to go all-in whose GM has indicated that they are comfortable with their goalies (which means no competition for the starting gig) and is signed for two more seasons matching the McDavid timeline. So for the near future he is in a plum spot, looking like a safe bet to challenge for the league lead in wins. No he isn't the #4 pure talent goalie but he is definitely in the top-5 for goalies if I want Wins in the near future. There are a lot of better goalies on worse teams or stuck in tandem situations. Are there 4-5 other goalies with a better shot at 40+ wins over the next couple seasons than Skinner?

How common are points-only leagues? I've never been in one. So I rarely look at both Dobber's goalie and dman (points-only) rankings. I agree that Skinner is definitely tot 10 but if we are talking dynasty, I'll always lean towards talent over opportunity. By using his criteria I'd have Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Demko, Bobrovsky, and most likely Vasilevskiy in front of Skinner. Projecting beyond this season I'd also consider Swayman (figuring Ulmark leaves this offseason) and Oettinger. So I'd end up having Skinner in the 6-8 range.

[BreadManPanarin]

The thing you must keep in mind is that the Dobber rankings are for points only setups with a lean towards the current season so you are only looking at Wins and Shutouts in the short term. Since the Oilers fired their head coach no one has more wins than he does and he has kept pace with a couple of shutouts. So you're looking at a 25-year-old starter who starts just about every game but the back-to-backs on a loaded team that continues to go all-in whose GM has indicated that they are comfortable with their goalies (which means no competition for the starting gig) and is signed for two more seasons matching the McDavid timeline. So for the near future he is in a plum spot, looking like a safe bet to challenge for the league lead in wins. No he isn't the #4 pure talent goalie but he is definitely in the top-5 for goalies if I want Wins in the near future. There are a lot of better goalies on worse teams or stuck in tandem situations. Are there 4-5 other goalies with a better shot at 40+ wins over the next couple seasons than Skinner?

Thanks for this helpful context. I had no idea GAA and Save% were not factors in these rankings. Makes more sense now.

[Pengwin7]

We all love Dobber... but the goalie rankings on this site have usually been... really bad.
Sorry, true.

IMO, if Skinner and EDM run to the Western final... he may hold #1 into next regular season.
If they are eliminated before the Western final - then EDM is looking for another G1 - because the playoff loss will be pinned on the goalie.
There is a LOT of pressure coming for Skinner in the playoffs.
That's a different beast than regular season. Playoff pressure is intense, esp w/expectations - which EDM will have.
A lot of analysts/betting agencies have EDM right there at top of West for expect Stanley Cup.
I think that'll mount and bury Skinner. But we'll see.
If he battles through, wins a cup, surprises... then he gains that sort of CamWard/BradenHoltby/JordanBinnington type foothold with his team.
And yes... if that happens, he's a #4.

In the future - and coming back to retrospect - there's three scenarios.
1. EDM wins Stanley Cup or goes to Cup and is "so close". The #4 placement is perfect, well done.
2. EDM goes to the playoff semis but loses, analyzed as goalie-fail, short of Cup.
>2a. Offseason comes, there's no "better" G1 - and EDM stays with Skinner. The #4 position looks... OK... but EDM folk will be talking "better G" over the entire next year leading to 2025 playoffs.
>2b. Offseason comes, EDM rolls dice on an available G1 - hoping that is their "final piece".
3. EDM flares out in round 1 or 2. Pressure eats Skinner and playoff loss is pinned on him. EDM goes and grabs somebody else, holds Skinner only as G2. #4 peg looks awful.


Boston is a team that will be making a decision on Ullmark/Swayman this summer.
I could see one heading to EDM for a nice return (draft pick, maybe D-upgrade for BOS.)

To me, the #4 placement is heads/tails coin-flip.
He's either a #4 type keeper or a #20 type keeper.
I think that's better averaged out to about #12...

But - for clarity - the upside as a #4 overall G... is there...
I'd much rather be holding Demko/Sorokin/Saros/Oettinger/Vas.
(ps. Vas isn't toast... TB just needs to upgrade their D to get his focus back, IMO)