Which goalie to make an offer on?

[skinnypete88]

I am looking to acquire a goalie for the first league in my signature. I am going all out this year and I don't think Talbot can take me to the promised land so I am contemplating making an offer to a team that is outside of the playoff picture but has three good goalies.

Assuming they want to move any at all, the owner has: Ullmark, Hill and Jarry

I have Oettinger, Swayman and Talbot.

The offer would be a high pick or combination of picks + Talbot for one of the three.

Who is the best option?

I am leaning towards Ullmark so that I have the tandem but really all three goalies have been performing well this season.

Thanks

[RizzeeDizzee]

Otter is giving you W and SA, Swayman has you covered in GAA and SV%. Jarry kind of fits in the middle of the two, so he'd be my pick, unless it's daily starts, in which case I'd just take both Boston guys and start whichever is playing on a given night.

[skinnypete88]

Otter is giving you W and SA, Swayman has you covered in GAA and SV%. Jarry kind of fits in the middle of the two, so he'd be my pick, unless it's daily starts, in which case I'd just take both Boston guys and start whichever is playing on a given night.

Yeah daily starts in a H2H. Nedeljkovic is also a bit concerning to me, I think if Pittsburgh is fighting for a playoff spot they will run Jarry down the stretch but the thought of having Swayman and Jarry both doing nothing come playoff time is alarming.

[Pengwin7]

If you are talking "all in" on H2H - I'm assuming you want playoff success.
In that case, you want to really micromanage your planning for your league's H2H playoffs.

Cross-compare to the goalies you have... and every.single.damn.start during H2H playoffs.
I was just looking at PIT's schedule - which is brutal for the next week or two.
But then it gets easier. And I think I saw two games vs CBJ (who might passively be rostering shit lineups in April) that are probably during H2H playoffs.


(All this said under assumption that H2H playoff week goalie stats are PARAMOUNT to you valuing them for this year)


BOS is a lock for Eastern playoffs... so I would assume they'll 50/50 balance Ullmark/Swayman starts in March/April - check their schedule for opponent strength.
VGK is a lock for Western playoffs... so I would assume they'll 50/50 balance Hill/Thompson
But PIT is on fringe... and fringe teams usually lean VERY hard on their #1 goalie - so assuming (*assumption has to be made) that Jarry > Nedeljkovic... then Jarry might see 2 of 3 starts.
And... of course... check schedule for those.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedu...burgh-penguins
CBJ on Thu Mar 28, Sat Mar 30
There are a bunch of pretty tough Eastern opponents around those.

Hmmm... maybe VGK's western schedule is better.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedu...golden-knights
Their Mar 21 (SEA, then CBJ, STL, NAS WPG, MIN) to Mar 30 is a better string of games... but again, probably 50/50 starter split

[skinnypete88]

Oh yeah I've been doing a deep dive. It's difficult to win a week without taking some goalie categories. But the way we have it set up if you lose out on GAA and SV% you can still take W and SA if you have the volume.

Pittsburgh has a great first week but between March 25 and April 14th both schedules are relatively comparable. PIT has two more games overall but both teams have a similar strength of schedule.

And again in the first week, depending on how the BOS rotation shakes out Swayman could end up starting only one game that week and it would be against FLA/TB. There's potential there to have one awful game and not get a second start to balance it out and squashing the whole week.

But both teams play three games. If Jarry were to get all three starts that week I would get minimum four starts, potentially five between him and Swayman. Whereas if I go for Ullmark it's three starts between the two roster spots.

[skinnypete88]

Oh yeah I've been doing a deep dive. It's difficult to win a week without taking some goalie categories. But the way we have it set up if you lose out on GAA and SV% you can still take W and SA if you have the volume.

Pittsburgh has a great first week but between March 25 and April 14th both schedules are relatively comparable. PIT has two more games overall but both teams have a similar strength of schedule.

And again in the first week, depending on how the BOS rotation shakes out Swayman could end up starting only one game that week and it would be against FLA/TB. There's potential there to have one awful game and not get a second start to balance it out and squashing the whole week.

But both teams play three games. If Jarry were to get all three starts that week I would get minimum four starts, potentially five between him and Swayman. Whereas if I go for Ullmark it's three starts between the two roster spots.

And the other point is in the first week, PIT, BOS and DAL (and VGK for that matter) will all be playing on Tue/Thu/Sat. So if Swayman happens to play the one game that week which is an off night and I trade for Jarry. I would get six between Jarry and Ott plus the one from Swayman, or I'd be forced to get six and end up benching a goalie three nights a week.

[Pengwin7]

I'll tell you the general concept I use for H2H...
1. Win half skater cats... obviously - if you can. If you have a "good team", then your skaters should be set up to win half+ categories against almost any opponents (or damn close).
2. Knowing the above, for goalie cats, strategize to take at LEAST half... either W-SV... or GAA-SV%.
I do this by getting goalie starts as EARLY as possible in the week.
I prefer to have 2-3 starts by end of Tuesday's games.

If my goalie(s) shit the bed on Monday/Tuesday, then I know I have to stream goalies for quantity for rest of week to take W/SV. (I won't be winning GAA, SV%... so my goalie direction is now clear.)
If my goalie light it up on Monday/Tuesday with say .940sv% and 2.00gaaa... then I'm probably sitting on that and "chess playing" my opponent. (I feel sure I can take GAA, SV%... maybe there's more...)
Let him make his starts... and wait on using "moves" to see if I need to.
But generally, if you get two great starts (and need min.3 - league standard) then you just slow-play and wait on that 3rd ideal start and take your two of four cats.
Do NOT get greedy and chase all four unless your skaters are clearly inferior and you won't get half+ skater categories.
BUT (!!!) IF you get those great Monday/Tuesday starts... you can still play "one move behind" your opponent.
If his next goalie shits-the-bed (5, 6gaa), then you can afford a goalie to shit-the-bed... and you just start whoever.
This can help you possible take all 4 goalie categories by OBSERVE-REACT.... OBSERVE-REACT... etc

I've been using this theory for 5+ years in H2H and it works very well.
[That said - goalies are voodoo... and sometimes it doesn't work out... but the theory can't be knocked... it's the best there is... and its not debatable... there's no other pure "strategy" that beats it. You can only get beat by "better goalies"... but not by a "better strategy".]

You DO want to try to get those Monday/Tuesday starts in key playoff weeks.

And on the tail-end... I usually try to roster up the LAST NHL game of Sunday.
[^For this pure reason above... I've been preferring West-Coast goalies in Weekly H2H leagues for several years now, because of later sit-start game time call]
That way I have a sit/start decision on a final goalie for GAA/SV%.
If I need them, I start them.
If I don't, I can bench them.

Think of it as getting the FIRST and LAST move... it's valuable.

Good luck!
Let us know who you end up choosing!

[skinnypete88]

Appreciate the strategy!

Update: I acquired Jarry. The die is cast.