AM34 running away with the Hart

[Belexus75]

If you score 70 but only have 30 assists there's no way you should win the Hart especially when your team is barely top 10 in the league.

but without his scoring they would be below top 20…. Isn’t that true definition of MVP?

[Canucks_fan18]

The more I think about it if he scores 70+ I think he wins it. However if he's even at 69 goals, and Kuch/Mack or 130+ points then I think it goes to one of them. It's weird but we our sports people but that number of 70 just has so much meaning.

Also as a side note I think Ovi would of hit 70 if he played in his prime now. Look what he has done since Matthews has entered the league. He has 4 Rockets, on the back 9 of his career. It's easier to score now, then when Ovi/Crosby entered the NHL.

[TheDard]

He's not running away with anything.

But from Elliot Friedman this morning about guys who bagged 70+ goals and not win the Hart.
Lemiuex didn't win when he had 85 goals in 1989, Gretzky won with his 168 pts. Bernie Nichols also had 70 goals that yr.
Selanne & Mogilny with 76 goals each lost to Lemiuex with his 69 goals and 160 pts in 60 games

Hull lost both times he broke 70 (72 & 70) to Mark Messier 129 pts and 107 pts (his 1st season in NYR)

Esposito lost to Orr in 1971. That's the year Orr went off for 37 goals, 102 assists

100% Matthews is in the running, but is not running away with it.
To win he must maintain his current goal & pt pace or most likely improve it.
That's without Kuch, Mack or McD doing their own improvements.

[blayze]

He's not running away with anything.

But from Elliot Friedman this morning about guys who bagged 70+ goals and not win the Hart.
Lemiuex didn't win when he had 85 goals in 1989, Gretzky won with his 168 pts. Bernie Nichols also had 70 goals that yr.
Selanne & Mogilny with 76 goals each lost to Lemiuex with his 69 goals and 160 pts in 60 games

Hull lost both times he broke 70 (72 & 70) to Mark Messier 129 pts and 107 pts (his 1st season in NYR)

Esposito lost to Orr in 1971. That's the year Orr went off for 37 goals, 102 assists

100% Matthews is in the running, but is not running away with it.
To win he must maintain his current goal & pt pace or most likely improve it.
That's without Kuch, Mack or McD doing their own improvements.

You're comparing different eras when there were a handful of players posting 60-80 goals every year, therefore not making it that special. If Hull's scoring 70 when there are 3-4 players in the 60's then it's not that special.

Today... NOBODY will even be close to 70. He's in another stratosphere as someone above put it.

Again - it's all relative to how rare the feat is. Very common to have 120-130 pt scorers in this day and age, however nobody is even close to sniffing 70. Now if McJesus is having a 150 pt season then that's a different convo.

[LawMan]

70 goals and over 130 points are both incredible.
70 goals has been done 14 times by 8 players. Only Hull, Lemieux and Gretzky have multiples. Most recent was Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne both in 1993.

130+ points has been done 50 times, by a bunch of guys.
140+ has been done 25 times, by 10 players. The last one (other than McDavid's 153 last year) was Lemieux (161) and Jagr(149) in 1996.

So I would suggest 70 goals is equal to 140 points.
I think AM wins the Hart if he hits 70 goals over a 130 point player and probably even over a 140 point player (especially if that player happens to be McDavid due to fatigue).
65 goals vs. 130 would be a tougher decision and looks at all the extra factors of team standings etc.

I think AM is the current front runner because his Goal total is a massive outlier to all others (+12 on Sam Reinhart 30% higher)and Kuch/Mac/McDavid are in proximity to each other and will all be under McDavid's 153 total from last year.
Yes I'm including McDavid for now, he's only 9 points back of Kucherov's leading 94P and the Oilers have 4 games in hand on Tampa and Colorado.
From a team perspective: Colorado is the strongest and is likely a playoff team without Mac. The other 3 teams are 3rd-WC and rely heavily on their superstar for offence, another edge to AM/Kuch/McD.

On a semi related note, this year will likely have a player with the claim to "Strongest Not a Hart Finalist" in a very long time, possibly ever.

[TheDard]

That's how the NHL works. They compare against previous teams, players and era's.
But what I listed is just highlighting what has occurred previously; thus setting what could be used as precedent for voters.

You don't have to like it, but it's just the facts.

[blayze]

That's how the NHL works. They compare against previous teams, players and era's.
But what I listed is just highlighting what has occurred previously; thus setting what could be used as precedent for voters.

You don't have to like it, but it's just the facts.

Facts are useless without context. Especially across eras.

And that's not how awards voting works. Nobody voting today gives a shit about Hull not winning it with 70 goals in 1970. The voting is done by media writers not historians.

It's all about what's happened recently. McJesus fatigue is a good example... Mack as the sentimental fav because he's "due" after being runner-up a dozen times is another.

[loppantorkel]

Another aspect - difference between teammates.
AM: 51g, 24a, 75p
W Nylander: 31, 43, 74p
M Marner: 22, 46, 68p

McDavid: 21, 64, 85p
Draisaitl: 21, 47, 68p
Bouchard & Hyman: both 53p

MacKinnon: 33, 59, 92p
Rantanen: 29, 52, 81p
Makar: 13, 47, 60p

Kucherov: 36, 58, 94p
B Point: 28, 30, 58p
Hedman & Hagel: 54p & 53p

Kucherovs production looks more MVP-like compared to Matthews from this perspective. Where would TB be without him?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Another aspect - difference between teammates.
AM: 51g, 24a, 75p
W Nylander: 31, 43, 74p
M Marner: 22, 46, 68p

McDavid: 21, 64, 85p
Draisaitl: 21, 47, 68p
Bouchard & Hyman: both 53p

MacKinnon: 33, 59, 92p
Rantanen: 29, 52, 81p
Makar: 13, 47, 60p

Kucherov: 36, 58, 94p
B Point: 28, 30, 58p
Hedman & Hagel: 54p & 53p

Kucherovs production looks more MVP-like compared to Matthews from this perspective. Where would TB be without him?

This is a valid point. But as I said, Kucherov's amazingness is lessened somewhat by the comparable amazingness of MacKinnon. What Matthews is doing is incomparable. And I think some voters will say that McDavid is still the best of the best and will vote for him almost reflexively, but those who'd do that likely would vote for Mac or Kuch instead. Long story short, I just feel that there will be too many split votes among the other three, whereas there will be a defined group solidly in the camp of the guy who's an unstoppable goal machine. Plus - and I know it sounds kind of like simple logic - scoring goals is harder than getting assists, isn't it?

[Invictus]

This is a valid point. But as I said, Kucherov's amazingness is lessened somewhat by the comparable amazingness of MacKinnon. What Matthews is doing is incomparable. And I think some voters will say that McDavid is still the best of the best and will vote for him almost reflexively, but those who'd do that likely would vote for Mac or Kuch instead. Long story short, I just feel that there will be too many split votes among the other three, whereas there will be a defined group solidly in the camp of the guy who's an unstoppable goal machine. Plus - and I know it sounds kind of like simple logic - scoring goals is harder than getting assists, isn't it?

Is it? Someone has to score a goal for you to get that assist. If its so easy why does AM only have 24 of them? His teammates are no slouches.

Kucherov has 36 primary assists. McDavid is the only one ahead of him with 39.

[Belexus75]

Because he is the trigger man… his linesmen combined have about 10% less shots than Matthews alone…

[2014olympicgold]

Matthews today has 12 more goals than the 2nd place guy. At this pace, by the end of the season Reinhart will have 57goals. Matthews is on pace for 76goals. He's on pace for almost 20 more goals than 2nd place.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8

In 2013-14, Ovi had 51G, and 19G away would be the 15th most goals that year. The 15th goal score in 2023-24 season (prorated) would be 35goals away from Matthews. Reinhart's goal scoring, in comparison to everyone but Matthews, is in line with a normal goal scoring race. This is like the COVID year with McDavid and points, but with Matthews and goals.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Matthews today has 12 more goals than the 2nd place guy. At this pace, by the end of the season Reinhart will have 57goals. Matthews is on pace for 76goals. He's on pace for almost 20 more goals than 2nd place.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8

In 2013-14, Ovi had 51G, and 19G away would be the 15th most goals that year. The 15th goal score in 2023-24 season (prorated) would be 35goals away from Matthews. Reinhart's goal scoring, in comparison to everyone but Matthews, is in line with a normal goal scoring race. This is like the COVID year with McDavid and points, but with Matthews and goals.

All the more reason why Matthews will be seen as "above and beyond" whereas Kucherov and MacKinnon might be deemed comparable. Could voters seize upon the fact that Kucherov does indeed have a BUNCH more points than anyone else on his team, seemingly fitting the "most valuable" label? Quite possibly. I'm no baseball expert, but I'd venture to say that more guys who led the majors in home runs have won MVP in years despite not even being in the top ten in hits.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Something else to consider is AM34 has zero empty net goals. Mac has 7 empty net points, and McDavid and Kucherov both have 5. No freebies for Matthews....

[2014olympicgold]

I also think the voters don't take nearly as much time as we have. It's very surface level research for these voters.
Mac - "OMG Mac fast. Mac has home point streak"
McDavid - "He god"
Matthews - "Puck go in net lots"
Kucherov - "He look like he don't try and still score"

Talking about these difference between other players, I don't think these voters get as deep into analyzing a players as my one post above (#27), let alone an actual discussion with strangers. If they talk, it's likely a bit of an echo chamber