AM34 running away with the Hart

[RizzeeDizzee]

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but it deserves repeating. Matthews has now hit 14 posts and 4 crossbars, so he's been perhaps an inch or two from so many more goals. And before you think, well what's the big deal, people probably hit that many all the time. Not so. There has not been any forward since 2009-10 (which as far as I can tell is when nhl.com started tracking this stat) with more combined crossbars and posts than Matthews this season. But the funny thing is the player with the second most crossbars and posts for 2023-24 is.....McDavid, with 16! MacKinnon has just 4, while Kucherov has 8.

[LawMan]

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but it deserves repeating. Matthews has now hit 14 posts and 4 crossbars, so he's been perhaps an inch or two from so many more goals. And before you think, well what's the big deal, people probably hit that many all the time. Not so. There has not been any forward since 2009-10 (which as far as I can tell is when nhl.com started tracking this stat) with more combined crossbars and posts than Matthews this season. But the funny thing is the player with the second most crossbars and posts for 2023-24 is.....McDavid, with 16! MacKinnon has just 4, while Kucherov has 8.

Any time some references hits posts this is what I immediately picture:

3adccfb7-4ac6-434d-a845-c746d2ea89ef_text.gif

[Rylant]

I never mentioned +/-, it's one of the worst ways to evaluate defensive ability (see Bouchard being +29), you mentioned +/-.

I know that this is a Matthews Hart thread. I would like to say, in response, that I disagree with your implying that Bouchard is bad defensively. I have watched every single Oilers game over the last few years. Anybody who says Bouchard is poor defensively, I would argue, has that opinion based on his play when he first broke into the league, and probably hasn't watched a ton of his recent play. He is certainly not Lidstrom or Bourque level, but his defensive play has improved drastically since his early years.

Rylant

[Axeman33]

I know that this is a Matthews Hart thread. I would like to say, in response, that I disagree with your implying that Bouchard is bad defensively. I have watched every single Oilers game over the last few years. Anybody who says Bouchard is poor defensively, I would argue, has that opinion based on his play when he first broke into the league, and probably hasn't watched a ton of his recent play. He is certainly not Lidstrom or Bourque level, but his defensive play has improved drastically since his early years.

Rylant

I've watched the majority of the Oilers games as well as he's easily their most inconsistent Dman in their own end. He's frustrating to watch in his own end because you never know what he's going to do. I find him lazy and timid playing actual defense. Great when the puck is on his stick and can move it well but if he doesn't have it, he isn't a good defender at all.

That's my opinion on Bouch as a defensive player.

Sorry for the derail but just had to voice my opinion as someone who has also watched a lot of Oilers games this year (every year).

[chuckcouples]

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread but it deserves repeating. Matthews has now hit 14 posts and 4 crossbars, so he's been perhaps an inch or two from so many more goals. And before you think, well what's the big deal, people probably hit that many all the time. Not so. There has not been any forward since 2009-10 (which as far as I can tell is when nhl.com started tracking this stat) with more combined crossbars and posts than Matthews this season. But the funny thing is the player with the second most crossbars and posts for 2023-24 is.....McDavid, with 16! MacKinnon has just 4, while Kucherov has 8.

Mackinnon leads the league in shots saved by goalies by a large margin. If 40 of those shots were just an inch or two different, he would have 80 goals.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Mackinnon leads the league in shots saved by goalies by a large margin. If 40 of those shots were just an inch or two different, he would have 80 goals.

I kinda see what you’re getting at but I think it’s not persuasive. Shots hitting the post or crossbar by definition made it past the goalie, and no one since the stat was charted has more despite no one also having more goals. That’s a helluva combination.

[chuckcouples]

Auston Matthews also leads the league in shots that missed the net. By definition, these shots made it past the goalie but just like shots that hit the post or the crossbar, they were not goals. Should these also increase Matthews' claim to being the MVP this season?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Auston Matthews also leads the league in shots that missed the net. By definition, these shots made it past the goalie but just like shots that hit the post or the crossbar, they were not goals. Should these also increase Matthews' claim to being the MVP this season?

I was just pointing out that an unprecedented number of posts and crossbars on top of how many goals he actually has is pretty amazing. You raise a fair point though. Noted. The interesting stat would be how many of Mac's league leading shots saved resulted directly in a goal off a rebound. I don't think that is charted though.

[doulos]

Kucherov could hit 100 assists this year as well. What a wild year for all of these players. Don't know who will win it, and don't care so much. The playoffs should be crazy this season as well.

[Belexus75]

Kucherov could hit 100 assists this year as well. What a wild year for all of these players. Don't know who will win it, and don't care so much. The playoffs should be crazy this season as well.

watch all 4 be out in first round lol...only one im little bit confident it wont happen to is Colorado ....but still could

[rataylor22]

-SHG is a terrible singular stat to use to establish a player's defensive strength.
- Matthews has 1 SHP this season
- McDavid has 1 SHP this season
- Kucherov and MacKinnon have 0 SHP this season.

One day the general public will understand that being a good penalty killer and being good defensively at 5v5 are independent skillsets with no relation to each other, but unsurprisingly today is not that day.

I'll borrow from Social Network in saying that if Matthews was two-dimensional, he'd be two-dimensional. You seem to suggest that since he's plus and a center he's two-dimensional. I think you're trying very hard to make a round peg - albeit one of the most perfect round pegs there is - also fit into a square hole. No one assesses Matthews' value based on his all-around game. Yes, he is plus. He, he blocks shots. But he's a sniper. If he was more than that, then it should shine through, and I'm saying it doesn't. It's not a knock. He's just not what you claim he is, at least if you ask most to give their views.

My main issue was your assertion that it was "widely known" he was a strong defensive player. Perhaps he is sound defensively, but "widely known?" That might be a stretch is what I was mainly taking issue with. But people have chimed in supporting his defensive acumen, so I am fully prepared to accept that my view either was at best a differing opinion, or at worst one that was formed without fully understanding the situation.

I'm not sure what you're looking for here, but it is absolutely widely known that Matthews is a superb defensive forward and it is reflected in all of his underlying metrics. Feel free to check in with JFresh, Dom, Micah, the twins, all of them will represent Matthews as excellent defensively. Or you can look at the underlying data if you don't prefer the visuals, but it will all tell you the same thing and that Matthews is excellent defensively. Relying on SHP and OZS% (probably because they might be the only two metrics you can find that ~could~ tell a different story is really a farce. I've posted Matthews card below just as one example. But also LawMan is correct, Matthews shoots more than he passes because it would be detrimental to team success for him to pass more. If you have the talent to score 60+ you should be the main shooter on the ice. That doesn't certainly doesn't make him one-dimensional as a player and its a pretty thin argument that it makes him one-dimensional as an offensive threat.

Matthews.jpeg

I kinda see what you’re getting at but I think it’s not persuasive. Shots hitting the post or crossbar by definition made it past the goalie, and no one since the stat was charted has more despite no one also having more goals. That’s a helluva combination.

A goalie would tell you that the post is part of their strategy, and if a player hits the post it's because that's all the goalie gave them to shoot at. To properly include any analysis on him hitting posts you'd have to dive deeper on if they are posts like Malkin hit yesterday against Tampa (shooter error) or posts where you could argue the goalie gave nowhere else to shoot.

[RizzeeDizzee]

All I can say is I've done my "outliers" piece for the annual guide for several years now, and the number of posts and crossbars hit by a player the prior year does seem to correlate to improved stats the following season, or to sustained eliteness. Make of that what you will. Also, the opposite is true, in that fewer posts and crossbars leads to worse stats. Last season the two players with over 30 goals who hit 2 or fewer posts were Cozens and Kuzmenko. Just sayin......

[blayze]

All I can say is I've done my "outliers" piece for the annual guide for several years now, and the number of posts and crossbars hit by a player the prior year does seem to correlate to improved stats the following season, or to sustained eliteness. Make of that what you will. Also, the opposite is true, in that fewer posts and crossbars leads to worse stats. Last season the two players with over 30 goals who hit 2 or fewer posts were Cozens and Kuzmenko. Just sayin......

So what you're saying is AM34 is a lock for 75 goals next year

[RizzeeDizzee]

So what you're saying is AM34 is a lock for 75 goals next year

No, but he is perennially on the list of most posts and crossbars. Yes, part of that is a lot of SOG, but still. Also, even before EP40 broke out or was shooting as much as he is now, he too hit a lot of posts and crossbars. And some guy named Jack Hughes had the most posts in 2020-21, and we know where he went from there. Still, the leader for 2022-23 was Tage Thompson, so it's not foolproof.

[Invictus]

So what you're saying is AM34 is a lock for 75 goals next year

No McDavid is a lock for 75 goals next year.

AM34 is a lock for 80 in two years