AM34 running away with the Hart

[2014olympicgold]

Seeing this, I wonder now if Matthews even wins it if he hits 70. If his goals total was far and away above the next highest player maybe, but it's not stratopherically high. And his lack of overall scoring is not gonna help him, nor is the fact he's already won one.

10g lead for goals is really high. See my post #27 in this thread, or below for reference on how high 10goal lead is.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8


If Matthews can get to 12G ahead of 2nd, that's the most since 2007-08 season when Ovi scored 65 and Kovalchuk scored 52 (13g diff). And before that was 1999-00 when Bure scored 58 and Owen Nolan scored 44 (14g diff). The Maurice Richard Trophy was an official award starting the 1998-99 season.

[RizzeeDizzee]

10g lead for goals is really high. See my post #27 in this thread, or below for reference on how high 10goal lead is.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8


If Matthews can get to 12G ahead of 2nd, that's the most since 2007-08 season when Ovi scored 65 and Kovalchuk scored 52 (13g diff)

But how far behind the overall scoring leaders were they, if behind at all? My guess is unlike Matthews they weren't tied for 7th, over 30 points behind the leader. I'm just not sure someone as one-dimensional can win it without truly reaching uncharted territory or at least getting 50 in 50.

[Invictus]

But how far behind the overall scoring leaders were they, if behind at all? My guess is unlike Matthews they weren't tied for 7th, over 30 points behind the leader. I'm just not sure someone as one-dimensional can win it without truly reaching uncharted territory or at least getting 50 in 50.

Matthews is a solid 4th statwise

[2014olympicgold]

But how far behind the overall scoring leaders were they, if behind at all? My guess is unlike Matthews they weren't tied for 7th, over 30 points behind the leader. I'm just not sure someone as one-dimensional can win it without truly reaching uncharted territory or at least getting 50 in 50.

I'm not arguing if he should win MVP, I'm just saying 10G ahead of 2nd is huge, and something that hasn't been done in 15-ish yrs is probably isn't nothing.

Also Matthews is not 1 dimensional....He's the best defensively out of the 4, or tied with MacKinnon at the least.

I still think he 100% hinges on 70g, and beating 2nd place in goals by 15 to be the MVP. Matthews won't finish 2nd or 3rd in voting, he'll either be 4th (most likely) or win it in my opinion.

Also, the bolded, that's for you to look up if you wanted to use that as an actual point in my opinion. Can't assume if you're using that as a counter point.

[zambronies]

10g lead for goals is really high. See my post #27 in this thread, or below for reference on how high 10goal lead is.

The difference between the highest goal scorer and 2nd highest over the years:
2022-23: 3
2021-22: 5
2020-21: 8 (COVID shortened year)
2019-20: 0 (COVID shortened year)
2018-19: 1
2017-18: 5
2016-17: 4
2015-16: 4
2014-15: 10
2013-14: 8
avg: 4.8


If Matthews can get to 12G ahead of 2nd, that's the most since 2007-08 season when Ovi scored 65 and Kovalchuk scored 52 (13g diff). And before that was 1999-00 when Bure scored 58 and Owen Nolan scored 44 (14g diff). The Maurice Richard Trophy was an official award starting the 1998-99 season.

In the 2014-2015 season Ovechkin led all players by 10 goals (most similar season comparison you listed to AM34 today), but was only 6 points away from most points in the league that season. Ovi did not win the Hart that year.

Today, AM34 leads all players by 10 goals, but trails the league leader in points by a staggering 31 points. That’s significant.

[blayze]

I still believe AM34 wins Hart if he hits 70, it's just hard for people to wrap their heads around because that scenario is looking unlikely unless he pulls a hatter out of his ass soon.

[zambronies]

In the 2014-2015 season Ovechkin led all players by 10 goals (most similar season comparison you listed to AM34 today), but was only 6 points away from most points in the league that season. Ovi did not win the Hart that year.

Today, AM34 leads all players by 10 goals, but trails the league leader in points by a staggering 31 points. That’s significant.

Perhaps a better comparable is the 2020-2021 season. Although a shortened season, Matthews led all skaters by 8 goals, but was 39 points behind the league leader. By no surprise, the league leader in points (McDavid) went home with the Hart.

[RizzeeDizzee]

In the 2014-2015 season Ovechkin led all players by 10 goals (most similar season comparison you listed to AM34 today), but was only 6 points away from most points in the league that season. Ovi did not win the Hart that year.

Today, AM34 leads all players by 10 goals, but trails the league leader in points by a staggering 31 points. That’s significant.

Precisely my point. When Hull won, he had over two dozen more goals than second place, but was second in scoring to only Gretzky. Ovi's three wins saw him lead the league in goals each time, but finish 1st, 2nd (3 points back), and 3rd (4 points back, but 48 game season) in points. And look back at the list of Hart winners. Do you see Bossy or Esposito? Nope. It's usually given to an all-around player.

[blayze]

Precisely my point. When Hull won, he had over two dozen more goals than second place, but was second in scoring to only Gretzky. Ovi's three wins saw him lead the league in goals each time, but finish 1st, 2nd (3 points back), and 3rd (4 points back, but 48 game season) in points. And look back at the list of Hart winners. Do you see Bossy or Esposito? Nope. It's usually given to an all-around player.

To be fair I'd put AM34 more toward the all-round player bucket than the one-dimensional goal scorer bucket. For starters he's a Center instead of a winger so you've gotta have some dimension of an all-round game to be good at that position, and as mentioned above he's a solid defensive player too.

[2014olympicgold]

If Matthews got 70g it's the most goals sicne 1992-93 season when Mogilny and Selanne scored 76. 3rd (since Mogilny+Selanne were 1/2) was Lemiuex with 69. If Matthews gets 70, he'll have like 12-14 more goals than 2nd.

70 would be tied for 12th most goals in a season (and most in 31yrs). McDavid's 139pt (projected) would be 26th best in NHL history.

It's really just what you find more impressive (I'm obviously not taking into account A LOT of peripheral stuff).
70G+39A=109pts
32G+107A=139pts
46G+96A=142pts
51G+87A=138pts

Should be interesting stretch run here.

[RizzeeDizzee]

To be fair I'd put AM34 more toward the all-round player bucket than the one-dimensional goal scorer bucket. For starters he's a Center instead of a winger so you've gotta have some dimension of an all-round game to be good at that position, and as mentioned above he's a solid defensive player too.

Hi might not deserve the one-dimensional label, but his stats suggest it, more so than the other snipers who've won. And if anything, him being a center makes it stick out more that he isn't as well-rounded in terms of scoring. Yes, he's a career +140 in 550 games, so he is sound defensively. But that won't move the needle like SHGs, which Gretzky and Lemieux piled on several years, whereas like every other season of his career Matthews has a grand total of zero.

[2014olympicgold]

Hi might not deserve the one-dimensional label, but his stats suggest it, more so than the other snipers who've won. And if anything, him being a center makes it stick out more that he isn't as well-rounded in terms of scoring. Yes, he's a career +140 in 550 games, so he is sound defensively. But that won't move the needle like SHGs, which Gretzky and Lemieux piled on several years, whereas like every other season of his career Matthews has a grand total of zero.

"He's one dimensional if you ignore the other dimension"

[LawMan]

Hi might not deserve the one-dimensional label, but his stats suggest it, more so than the other snipers who've won. And if anything, him being a center makes it stick out more that he isn't as well-rounded in terms of scoring. Yes, he's a career +140 in 550 games, so he is sound defensively. But that won't move the needle like SHGs, which Gretzky and Lemieux piled on several years, whereas like every other season of his career Matthews has a grand total of zero.

-SHG is a terrible singular stat to use to establish a player's defensive strength.
- Matthews has 1 SHP this season
- McDavid has 1 SHP this season
- Kucherov and MacKinnon have 0 SHP this season.

[RizzeeDizzee]

"He's one dimensional if you ignore the other dimension"

I'll borrow from Social Network in saying that if Matthews was two-dimensional, he'd be two-dimensional. You seem to suggest that since he's plus and a center he's two-dimensional. I think you're trying very hard to make a round peg - albeit one of the most perfect round pegs there is - also fit into a square hole. No one assesses Matthews' value based on his all-around game. Yes, he is plus. He, he blocks shots. But he's a sniper. If he was more than that, then it should shine through, and I'm saying it doesn't. It's not a knock. He's just not what you claim he is, at least if you ask most to give their views.

[Invictus]

I don't really hold that against players anymore.

Do you really want your goal scorer playing minutes he is least likely to get an opportunity to score?

They need their rest!