SuperBowl

[Daydream Nation]

I heard on the radio that Chiefs were going to go for 2. The idea of having your season in Mahomes hands I guess is the deciding factor.

That would be my decision too. Talk about the pressure!

[LawMan]

I heard on the radio that Chiefs were going to go for 2. The idea of having your season in Mahomes hands I guess is the deciding factor.

The math almost certainly supports this decision.
Going for 2 is a win/loss and Chiefs are probably > 50% to make the 2-pointer and win the game.
Going for 1 is a tie/loss only options with likely a 95% tie outcome.
But once you hit the extra, you now kick-off to a team that need only score a FG to win so your win percentage must dip well below 50%

Assuming the above is correct, the Chiefs should prepare to go for two. The NEXT question is, given this, in a simulation should the 49ers go for 2 if they score first based on an assumption the Chiefs will?
Going for 2 first is a lot riskier because if you do not make it then winning on a traditional 7 is much easier. I would love to know the nerd math on this!

[Daydream Nation]

Assuming the above is correct, the Chiefs should prepare to go for two. The NEXT question is, given this, in a simulation should the 49ers go for 2 if they score first based on an assumption the Chiefs will?
Going for 2 first is a lot riskier because if you do not make it then winning on a traditional 7 is much easier. I would love to know the nerd math on this!

Great stuff. I agree. I want to know the math too.

[2014olympicgold]

So the rules are though that both teams get a chance to score, then it's sudden death.
Possession 1: Scores TD + 1pt
Possession 2: Scores TD +1pt
Possession 3: Field Goal, wins game.

The big thing is that if the team scores a TD on possession 1, if they get another possession, they only need to score a FG on possession 3, which means they only need like 35-40yrds on their next play to get a FG.

Team with possession 1, the play isn't to go for the 2pt conversion. The 2pt conversion on possession 2 is tied to the possession 3FG potential. Scoring a 2pt conversion is easier apparently than stopping a team from going 40yrds.

Also...aftermath of the SB....49ers fire their DC. Even tho, they were held allllll game. No idea why he's the fallout here.

[LawMan]

Alright you got my curios to do some math. First things first, what are the NFL conversion rates?

https://en.as.com/nfl/what-is-the-tw...nd-the-play-n/

Where numbers are concerned, two-point conversions have been successful about 47.5% of the time that they’ve been attempted since 2015 i.e., roughly half of the extra point kick conversion rate which sits at 95%.

This was actually A LOT lower than I expected. KC does not take a lot of 2-point conversions so not a large enough sample size to say if they are well above or below that. KC is obviously a better than average Offence, but the 49ers are a better than average Defence. For sake of the entire analysis let’s say those cancel and the rate is 47.5%, the rate for PATs is 95%. Again, this analysis only matters after a TD is scored (and a 2nd one for KC), and only really, really matters if 2 TDs are scored.

So, when KC gets the ball 2nd, after a SF TD (7) and scores a TD it has a decision. KC is left with a 47.5/52.5 win/loss and those numbers are final (no ties here!). Win rate of going for 2 is 47.5%.
If KC kicks it has a 95/5 to TIE, but then KC gives the ball back and its win rate on a 3rd possession is probably in the mid-30% range (no idea what the number is but safe to say it is less than 50%; let’s say 35%). So, the win rate going for 1 is: .95*.35 = 33.25%.
Going for 2: win rate = 47.5%
Going for 1: win rate = 33.25%
KC should go for 2!

SF decision matrix:
When SF scores first it does the same analysis and decides KC will go for 2. Now, if SF scores a TD first, it has its own dilemma on a TD: 1 or 2 points, knowing if you miss your 1 or 2 pt attempt, KC will go for 1 (obviously).

Go For 1
2 ways to win (Hit/Stop, Miss/Miss/then win)
2 ways to lose (miss/opp PAT OR miss/miss/then win)

Hit/Stop
win rate = .95*.525 = 49.875% win rate
Miss-PAT, Opponent PAT miss/ then win
.05 *.05 *.65 = 0.1625% win rate
SF Kick PAT Total Win rate: 50.0375%

Losses
Hit-PAT, Surrender -2
.95 x .475 = 24.9375%
Miss-PAT, Opponent miss-PAT/ then lose
.05*.05*.35 = .1625%
Loss Rate = 49.9625%

Go For 2
3 ways to win (hit/stop, hit/hit/3rd possession, miss/opp miss PAT/3rd possession win)
Make/Stop
.475*.525 = 24.9375% win rate
make/make/win
.475*.475*.65 = 14.6656% win rate
miss/miss-PAT/then win
.525*.05*.65 = 1.7063% win rate
Go for 2 Total Win Rate = 41.3094%
Losses:
(miss/opponent-PAT, make/surrender/then lose, miss/opponent miss PAT/then lose)
Miss-2/Opponent-PAT
.525*.95 = 49.875% loss rate
Make-2/Surrender-2/then lose
.475*.475*.35 = 7.90% win rate
Miss-2/miss-PAT/then lose
.525*.05*.35 = 0.9188%
Total Loss Rate = 58.69% loss rate

So for SF, the win rate of going for 1 is 50.0375% and going for 2 is 41.3094%. So, the optimal play is to go for 1. Again, all of the above is only considering what to do after your team scores a TD in overtime. First team should kick the PAT and the 2nd team should go for 2 unless the first PAT is missed.

If both teams score a TD then the system is almost perfectly fair. Getting the ball first maintains a big advantage on a double field goal or double punt situation as you then have the ball in a next score wins game. However, having the ball second claws back some advantage on knowing what you need. i.e. if you’re facing a FG given up (like KC was) I would think that the analytics would support going for a lot of 4th and short (under 3 yards) depending on where you are on the field. Going for it allows you to continue to have a chance at a winning TD, whereas going for a FG AT BEST means you are giving the ball away in a next score wins spot.

Conclusion:
- SF was right to take the ball 1st
- If first teams scores TD should kick PAT
- If second team scores TD should go for the win

[PenguinHunter]

Very sad news - one person killed and many more injured in shooting at the Super Bowl Parade today.

[2014olympicgold]

Huge math Lawman love it. What isn't considered though is the 2nd possession you get 4 downs to work with besides the 1st possession 3 downs essentially. If KCC defense steps up and doesn't give up any points you have a "score and win" plan while operating on a traditional 3 down play calling system. If you are down by anything, you work with 4 downs the whole time. This can be big when facing 3rd and long. 1st possession needs to get essentially the whole amount, 2nd possession can run a 3rd down play with a check down option and not need to force it.

I think the "SanFran made the wrong call" is being overblown. They had the TD on 3rd down in OT if the line blocked correctly. They had it. But, if this was the 2nd possession....the team can go for it again on 4th if they choose.

[LawMan]

Huge math Lawman love it. What isn't considered though is the 2nd possession you get 4 downs to work with besides the 1st possession 3 downs essentially. If KCC defense steps up and doesn't give up any points you have a "score and win" plan while operating on a traditional 3 down play calling system. If you are down by anything, you work with 4 downs the whole time. This can be big when facing 3rd and long. 1st possession needs to get essentially the whole amount, 2nd possession can run a 3rd down play with a check down option and not need to force it.

I think the "SanFran made the wrong call" is being overblown. They had the TD on 3rd down in OT if the line blocked correctly. They had it. But, if this was the 2nd possession....the team can go for it again on 4th if they choose.

Agreed that going 2nd has that certain advantage of knowing how to use 4th down.
I did make notes to that effect and how KC going 2nd knew it needed a FG so 4th downs outside FG range are automatically go for it. The interesting part is on 4th and short inside the SF 40 (Butker range). If you're KC as soon as you send out your FG unit the best you can do is tie, and kick away on a next score wins, so your win rate drops below 50%. If you go for it on 4th you have a chance to extend and score a TD. Thus, your 4th down conversion rate does not need to be >50% to justify going for it, again the exact math would be fun to know.

An executive summary on strategy would be: Take the ball first and "play for the tie" thru 2 possessions. If you get the ball 2nd play for the win as much as possible (go for it on 4th and short) and go for 2 on a TD.

[LawMan]

Fell down a rabbit hole of sports analytics trying to determine which option is better.

This individual's twitter goes into a deep dive. There is absolutely no consensus among the analytic experts on whether 1st or 2nd possession is better.

https://twitter.com/SethWalder/statu...60725808263347

this thread has great details
https://twitter.com/StatsbyLopez/sta...91779968659930