Untouched Gretzky rookie cards anyone??

[RizzeeDizzee]

I've got the #15 Walt Tkachuk from that year too.

Attachment 6010


Attachment 6011

My Gretzky rookie card is cut off center but she's crisp.

My collection from that Gretzky rookie year. Bobby Hull's, Gordie Howe's to name a few in there.

Attachment 6012

This illustrates one of the major risks with this case. It is entirely possible that all the boxes were produced on the same "run," such that if one is wildly off center so could most if not all of them. It's a huge gamble for this reason alone. And even if you dodge the off center issues, there's still the edge cut to worry about. While of course a major reason there are so few PSA 10 Gretzkys are that most were not cared for in the way a card would be today, do keep in mind that until ten years ago boxes were not insane money, so people did open a lot of these boxes after grading became a thing. And yet despite that, still only two 10s exist. Buyer beware I say, unless, as I noted, you intend to flip them unopened on a box by box basis.

[Pengwin7]

I was just reading an article about the O-Pee-Chee production plan (London) from 1979.
Apparently they had 5 cutting stations...
Four of them cut a "double" set of sheets. (4x2) And apparently these made the, more common, rough-edges.
One of them cut a "single" set of sheets. (1x1) And apparently this one made the, less common, smooth edge.
Beyond that, they cut with "cast iron knives"... which... would start sharp, but eventually dull.


So the odds that this case... and its boxes... have the smooth edges...
And assuming the cutting production was the same for all five stations.
Odds are 1/9, across the board, that a card came off the good "single" cutter.
And then there is the range of "sharp new blade" to "dull old blade" range.
But... all that said... the odds are the odds...
(Unless somebody can dig thru production documents to tell what made its way to Regina, Saskatchewan in the fall of 1979!!!)

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...first-1m-card/

Ivy estimates that 90 per cent of O-Pee-Chee’s cards from that era would’ve been graded below gem mint before they even left the factory.

Because of this "poor production" methodology - there's decent likelihood that the Gretzky cards will become the Canadian version of the "T206 1908 Honus Wagner".


[So now... this said... the buyer is going to - I would think - definitely, open two boxes... maybe 2-5 packs... and evaluate the edges. At what point... would one know if there might be "nice edges"? I'd have to think that a full case came from the same production spot in the factory - which is ONE cutter. Does the buyer manipulate this situation... and "represent" a pack opening - whether from this stock or not - where they show off something with a beautiful "edge" and cutting?!?... I'd think yes. Oh man - would I like to be a fly-on-the-wall of the person who commits to this!!! What.a.risk.]

[doulos]

^Doesn't matter.
Market is probably up 1.5x-2x since 2020.
Those who had money/assets invested... have even more now.
Those'll be the people buying.
Plus... the "risk" here... is going to excite a certain group of collectors.
[Packs in a sealed box... that's the best opportunity towards a PSA10 that can possibly exist.]
Shit... might even be a PSA11!
[Point being... the NICEST GretzkyRC... in the history of collecting... is possibly... dare-we-fairly-say... "likely"... in there.]


It's going to be insane.
I think it goes above/beyond what anybody is even speculating.


Anybody reading what a re-offered single "pack" is going to go for?

Yes it will be insane. But 2021 was a whole new level of insane and the market has since cooled. I agree, in the grand sceme of things this individual is going to make bank on the hype by selling to someone else. I just was commenting on how much sillier it would have been during covid when everyone was bored out of their minds and spending their travel/eating out money on pokemon cards, crypto, comics and other collectibles.

There is a very good chance that there is no pristine 10 Gretzky rookie in there but it will be really interesting to see what strategy the buyer comes up with (sell in pieces, open, keep etc).

[RizzeeDizzee]

It will be really interesting to see what strategy the buyer comes up with (sell in pieces, open, keep etc).

I think no one in their right mind will buy to open, unless somehow it's a platform like WhatNot; however, I don't think they'd see enough of a buying pool to turn these into breaks. I suppose it could be kept as a case, as each box is sealed with a FASC (from a sealed case) wrapper by BBCE, ensuring that no boxes can be swapped out. But I maintain that a buyer will turn around and sell the boxes individually in fairly short order. It happens all the time, where someone with enough money steps up and buys something that is out of the price range of nearly everyone, but then parcels it out to people who are able to pay the price for a fraction of the whole. This has been done mostly though with individual boxes, from which individual packs are sold. Here it's the same principle, except instead of a box yielding packs to be sold, its a case yielding boxes.

[Pengwin7]

^Definitely agree it will be sold parceled out, probably by boxed.... but a few boxes as individual packs.
(And even an "individual pack" can be a "live break" with assigned cards, in order, towards somebody... say - you pay $$$$ and receive Card #6/14 in Pack #21 from Box #12.
(I believe I've read/heard/seen that some places do this.)


What would somebody pay for a single shot, 1/396, at a Gretzky RC?
If we "overvalue" the Gretzky RC at $100k, say (for the purposes of math discussion)... and that's the ONLY card of value, with ~ 400 in the set.
Then value per card = $100k / 400 cards = $250/card.)
(If that math is anywhere near correct... $250/card... based on the 27 Gretzky RCs ~ $100k each... then are we talking the 10k cards are worth $2.7m-ish? Bid is currently at $1.4m, I think.. with 24 days or so to bid.)


I do think buyer will break into one... maybe two boxes on their own - with intent towards marketing the content quality.
Depends on who the buyer views as their customer-base and what that audience expects, in transparency, from the buyer.

If they find that the cut & edges are pristine... then they'll use that to "market" towards the odds of finding a PSA 10 Gretzky RC.
If they find that the cut & edges are not pristine... well... then they probably won't say anything.
(Instead - might they arrange some "fake sale" such where the "opened box" shows up as sold to some "buyer"... but was really the buyer's pre-open evaluator box.)

The bigger question... will they do even a single box or single pack "live" and put themselves at risk of exposing that first pack potentially being "PSA 7" or something?

A keen buyer is probably looking for some guarantee that:
a) The quality of the contents is absolutely NOT known, or
b) The quality of any contents inspected (packs opened) is fully, honestly, clearly divulged.

Tricky, tricky.
[But yes, I'd hedge - all this thought of - it's in buyers best interest to not open a single anything... and move the individual boxes out at individual auctions.]

[doulos]

I think no one in their right mind will buy to open, unless somehow it's a platform like WhatNot; however, I don't think they'd see enough of a buying pool to turn these into breaks. I suppose it could be kept as a case, as each box is sealed with a FASC (from a sealed case) wrapper by BBCE, ensuring that no boxes can be swapped out. But I maintain that a buyer will turn around and sell the boxes individually in fairly short order. It happens all the time, where someone with enough money steps up and buys something that is out of the price range of nearly everyone, but then parcels it out to people who are able to pay the price for a fraction of the whole. This has been done mostly though with individual boxes, from which individual packs are sold. Here it's the same principle, except instead of a box yielding packs to be sold, its a case yielding boxes.

I've learned that in the collectibles side of things that people do irrational things all the time. I wouldn't feel comfortable making any kind of guess as to what the buyer might do. Looking forward to seeing what happens!

[blayze]

I hope some rich ass mofo buys the entire thing and publicly opens every pack and streams it for shits and giggles

That's what this group did with the lebron triple logoman packs

[doulos]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saska...lion-1.7111123

Sold!

Interested to see what the buyer does next.

[Pengwin7]

^Checking in on this... is the auction over?
I thought it was going on longer than Feb.10th.

10 more days listed here:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/hockey-car...ufvM_ZuVzcHYAQ

[doulos]

Oh good catch. I thought it had already sold.

[BloodSport]

Going once, going twice, SOLD!!! 5 million.

[pmorrow]

Imagine there's no Gretzky cards

[doulos]

Going once, going twice, SOLD!!! 5 million.

Definitely a lot more than I would have figured. Very interesting!