The scoring race of 2024

[loppantorkel]

Who will win the Art Ross?

Current points:
Kucherov: 83
MacKinnon: 82
Pastrnak: 69
McDavid: 63

[Pengwin7]

Kucherov has feasted on the East so far... with 42pts in 22gp. 41pts in 26gp vs West.
MacKinnon has also feasted in East so far... with 35pts in 18gp. 47pts in 30gp vs West.

Given that TB is East... and plays more Eastern teams... he looks like the better horse to ride.
That said - I think MacKinnon is garnering more hype as his big-game/late-game scoring has been hitting the highlights a lot.

I'd have to bet that betting agencies would hedge towards the "sexier" MacKinnon.
But if the East is giving up goals... Kucherov, statistically, is your better bet.

See ESPN splits for East & West.
Kucherov
MacKinnon

I'm a numbers person, so my answer is Kucherov.

[pmorrow]

I'm going with MacKinnon

[Invictus]

Whoever of those two remains healthier.

[kovalchuk17]

I voted for Connor strictly because I need him to do so for me to win my league. Anything less than the hottest second half of any player will likely leave me in second place in my league

[metaldude26]

The thing that stands out is how much the top two are playing.

Kucherov is up 1:50 per game over his previous career high (set last year) all the way at 21:58 per game good for 3rd in the league among forwards.

MacKinnon is up 0:45 per game over his previous career high (also last year) at 23:04 per game good for 2nd among forwards.

Only Mikko Rantanen is skating more minutes among forwards. The NHL has TOI data available going back to 1997-98 and it's staggering to look at: https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?ag...=0&pageSize=50

For forwards, since the '05 lockout, you basically have a couple of Kovalchuk seasons, a couple of Brind'Amour seasons and a couple of St. Louis seasons and otherwise, we haven't seen 23+ minute per game forwards in the cap era.

*

Anyways, my initial feeling was MacKinnon because of how unstoppable he has looked lately, but Kucherov has been unrelenting all season. Kucherov's a better health bet too.

[2014olympicgold]

This is all a guess.

Kucherov
48gp, 83pts currently
11gp, 18pts guess vs Metro teams
8gp, 11pts guess vs Atlantic
68gp, 112pts.
Projected 82games, 135pts.

MacKinnon
48gp, 82pts currently
6gp, 10pts guess vs Metro
6gp, 9pts guess vs Atlantic
60gp, 101pts.
Projected 82gp, 138pts.

It really depends on if MacKinnon can light up his east coast games.

[Pengwin7]

^This is just really weird that you are doing this.
It's kind of style after mine... but uses two Eastern divisions... and no West.

[TheDard]

I like MacKinnon for the Art Ross this season.
Even the nights when he has not necessarily been at his best, he still gets 1 or 2 pts. Helps having Rantanen and Makar both putting forth their own strong seasons.

[hockeyrobot]

Mackinnon. It's just too far for Mcdavid at this point.

[loppantorkel]

I have to go MacKinnon too. I doubt Tampa and Kucherov will risk anything to get Kucherov another Art Ross. McDavid is a bit too far behind.

[Invictus]

Oilers are rolling now and it's really only the mid point of the season for them.

Oilers have 5 games in hand to both COL and TBL.
Assuming current point pace for McDavid (63/42= 1.5) for those 5 games, McDavid would need ~13 more points (than Kuch & McKinnon) over the last 33.
Both have to avoid injuries too. I suspect MacKinnon will miss a few games eventually (Kuch may not).

McDavid is by no means too far behind, put me down for McDavid.

(Although 'I don't know' is the correct answer)

[Feenom]

If anybody can catch up it’s McDavid.

[loppantorkel]

If either MacKinnon or Kucherov keep their current pace, McDavid needs slightly above 2ppg pace to get past. It's not at all impossible, but it seems more probable that either Kucherov or MacKinnon manage to stay ahead.

Colorado had an easy first half schedule, so that speaks against MacKinnon. Otoh, I believe Tampa has a stronger habit of resting players the final weeks.

[Invictus]

This is looking even more interesting